Is There a Chink in the Armour of the Market's Biggest Dividends?

Armour Residential (NYSE: ARR  ) reported earnings last week, and it offered a mixed bag for investors. On the one hand, Armour did maintain its hefty quarterly dividend, paying out another $0.36 per share. But on the other, its interest rate spread -- a key measure of profitability -- declined sequentially and year over year.

The company reported estimated taxable REIT income of $31.3 million, but on a GAAP basis, Armour reported a loss of $34.5 million. The discrepancy was due largely to an unrealized loss in the company's derivatives of $65.8 million.

Armour, like the rest of the mortgage REIT industry, endured a volatile quarter due to a variety of factors. Potential regulatory reforms, the ongoing European crisis, Operation Twist, and the revamped HARP rules had many mortgage REIT investors on edge. But Armour noted that less than 2% of its holdings are eligible for the revised HARP program, meaning it has little exposure there.

Despite these challenges, Armour recorded an interest rate spread that was in line with its peers', even if it suffered declines from last quarter and the year-ago period:

Company

Interest Rate Spread Q3 2011

Interest Rate Spread Q2 2011

Interest Rate Spread Q2 2010

Armour Residential

2.18%

2.36%

2.88%

Annaly Capital (NYSE: NLY  )

2.08%

2.45%

2.11%

American Capital Agency (Nasdaq: AGNC  )

2.14%

2.46%

2.21%

CYS Investments (NYSE: CYS  )

1.95%

2.23%

1.91%

Invesco Mortgage (NYSE: IVR  )

2.39%

2.75%

4.11%

Source: S&P Capital IQ.

In contrast to peers such as Annaly, American Capital Agency, and CYS, Armour's spread declined markedly from a year ago -- off 70 basis points. In that regard, its quarter looked similar to Invesco's. The interest rate spread is perhaps the most important number to focus on in this report (or any from the mortgage REIT sector).

Like peers Invesco and Annaly, Armour raised fresh capital this quarter. Armour issued nearly 10 million shares this quarter through a secondary offering and its dividend reinvestment plan, at $7.39 and $7.30 per share, respectively. Unlike Invesco, though, Armour managed to issue shares above book value, which was $7.15 at the end of the second quarter. Issuing shares above book value helps a company avoid diluting shareholders.

And for dividend investors, the news remained the same.

Unlike many peers in this space, Armour has kept its dividend more consistent, producing a payout of $0.36 per quarter for four of the last five quarters. Chimera (NYSE: CIM  ) , Annaly, and Invesco adjust their dividends more frequently in response to results, with quarterly changes the norm rather than the exception. At Armour's current payout and price, that amounts to a 20% yield -- hefty even for mortgage REITs.

One final spot that investors might want to watch: the company's high leverage. Armour reported a debt-to-equity ratio of 925% for the quarter, surpassing even American Capital Agency's 813%. High leverage is normal in this space, but Armour's runs higher than the peers listed above. Still, that's about in line with the last five quarters. But it's something to keep an eye on in future quarters should the company's spread continue to decline, since it has less room to increase leverage in order to offset dwindling spreads.

For now, I prefer to invest in the more conservatively run and financed Annaly, which I own in my World's Best Dividend Portfolio. Its yield, at 14% or so, is also much less than Armour's. But that's a trade-off I'm willing to make.

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Jim Royal, Ph.D., owns shares of Annaly. The Motley Fool owns shares of Annaly and Chimera. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (4) | Recommend This Article (5)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On November 08, 2011, at 5:30 PM, jaybird43 wrote:

    ARR dividend is monthly not quarterly as reported above. Compounding faster is another advantage.

  • Report this Comment On November 08, 2011, at 5:40 PM, techy46 wrote:

    It does look like the mREITs are under pressure by decreasing interest rate spreads which would be understandable given the FEDs desire to lower the interest rate curve. It does not look like the threat is critical at the current time but will have nominal effect on dividend payouts.

  • Report this Comment On November 09, 2011, at 12:11 AM, maroko wrote:

    Just be honest and tell us how safe are the REITs. I own four of the six you have mentioned and I have lost my sleep over them.

  • Report this Comment On November 10, 2011, at 1:06 PM, Prarychkn wrote:

    If this author had no knowledge about the fact that ARR has been paying MONTHLY now for some time, and that the amount at 11 cents per month hardly totals a quarterly dividend of 36 cents, why should we give any credence to his articles?

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Related Tickers

8/26/2014 4:00 PM
ARR $4.22 Up +0.01 +0.24%
ARMOUR Residential… CAPS Rating: ****
AGNC $23.50 Up +0.12 +0.51%
American Capital A… CAPS Rating: ****
CIM $3.28 Up +0.06 +1.86%
Chimera Investment CAPS Rating: ***
CYS $9.34 Down +0.00 +0.00%
CYS Investments CAPS Rating: *****
IVR $17.42 Up +0.01 +0.06%
Invesco Mortgage C… CAPS Rating: *****
NLY $11.86 Up +0.05 +0.42%
Annaly Capital Man… CAPS Rating: ****

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