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6 Charts That Show Inflation Is Near

I wrote a column last week about the likelihood of near-term inflation. Given the response to the article, and taking a cue from Morgan Housel's "7 Charts That Sum Up Our Jobs Mess," I decided to illustrate the argument with a series of charts.

As you'll see, the charts begin with the Federal Reserve's aggressive response to the financial crisis and end with a dramatic increase in the price of commodities such as corn, oil, and gold. The charts in between illustrate why the dramatic growth in the money supply has only begun to exert its influence on consumer prices.

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Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, recent balance sheet trends.

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Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and author's calculations.

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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and author's calculations.

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Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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Source: USDA, Feed Grains Database.

Of course, if it's true that higher inflation is on the way, and I believe that it is, then it's important to start thinking about how to inflation-proof your portfolio.

As I discussed previously, the traditional way to do so is to anchor it in tangible assets. You can do this directly through an exchange-traded fund like the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD  ) , or indirectly by investing in companies that produce tangible assets like Molycorp (NYSE: MCP  ) , a rare earth producer, or Paramount Gold and Silver (NYSE: PZG  ) , an exploration-stage mining company in Mexico.

A second approach, and the one I prefer, is to invest in consumer goods companies that can pass price increases onto their customers. Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO  ) and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG  ) are textbook examples of this given the power of their respective brands. Two less attractive but equally compelling examples are Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM  ) and Altria (NYSE: MO  ) , both of which sell products that are addictive regardless of price.

If neither approach appeals to you, however, our in-house analysts drafted a free report detailing three under-the-radar companies profiting from an increase in oil prices, one of the commodities that's already begun the upward ascent. To learn the identity of these three companies before the market catches on, click here now.

The Steve Jobs Betrayal
You may already know that in the final year of his life, Jobs revealed a stunning betrayal — and told his biographer, "I will spend my last dying breath... and every penny of Apple's $40 billion in the bank to right this wrong." What was it that made Jobs so irate — and why could it make a few in-the-know investors some major profits over the coming months and years?

Enter your email address below to find out what made Jobs so enraged!

Foolish contributor John Maxfield, J.D., does not have a financial stake in any of the companies mentioned in this article. The Motley Fool owns shares of Altria Group, Coca-Cola, and Philip Morris International. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Procter & Gamble, Philip Morris International, and Coca-Cola. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On November 22, 2011, at 5:39 PM, xetn wrote:

    First of all, your definition of inflation is wrong: inflation is the increase in the money supply. What you are referring to is price inflation. Price inflation is a result of money inflation assuming no increase in the quantity of goods and services.

    One problem with connecting the two events is that inflated money supply does not reach everyone at the same time, so the first receivers of the new money have an advantage over later recipients because they get to use the money before any resultant price increases. The people that are left to pay the highest prices at the end of the cycle are normally the ones on fixed incomes.

  • Report this Comment On November 22, 2011, at 5:47 PM, xetn wrote:
  • Report this Comment On November 22, 2011, at 5:49 PM, TMFHousel wrote:
  • Report this Comment On November 22, 2011, at 6:01 PM, alan0101 wrote:

    Charts 4 and 5 show why we are in the mess we are in, why there is no job creation,etc banks are not doing their jobs, which is simply to lend to small businesses and thus grease the wheels of the economy. That is capitalism, not the organised fraud we lived through the GBW years, exacerbated by the useless and very expensive, tax cuts for the wealthy ( thanks Dubya, but I just let it sit) Chart 6 shows what we have seen for years, driven by demand from Asia, just ask Jim Rogers. Inflation is NOT a concern.

  • Report this Comment On November 22, 2011, at 8:32 PM, boftedal wrote:

    Chart 6, I don't think corn is an appropriate commodity to use. It's price has been affected to a large degree be methanol production.

  • Report this Comment On November 22, 2011, at 10:40 PM, JohnErikHorn wrote:

    Actually Figure 4 is decisive. As long as the money doesn't make its way from the banks' balance sheets to the real economy, it will not have effective inflationary effects. By contrast the decreasing velocity and simultaneously increasing CPI truly displays the effects of higher demand. Of course, if China's economy should slow and banks keep their money in their pockets, a deflationary scenario becomes the larger threat. #volatiletimes

  • Report this Comment On November 22, 2011, at 11:39 PM, maiday2000 wrote:

    A bank's "job" is to lend to people only if it is profitable. If there aren't good credit risks out there, then they won't lend money.

    If we were in an "organized fraud" during the last administration we are even in a worse situation now. At least before, the business climate was good enough to create SOME private sector jobs.

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2011, at 12:06 AM, MichaelDSimms wrote:

    Really you need a chart?

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2011, at 10:34 AM, randallw wrote:

    There are some major assumptions in your analysis:

    1) What do you mean by "near term?" 6 months? 1 year? 5 years? Without qualifying a timeline, this is all a meaningless discussion. I think we can all agree that at some point, the inflation rate will increase (and decrease too!)

    2) As long as the funds held by banks do not make it into the market, inflation will be held in check. How long will it be until banks release more funds? Great question. They will not lend to those who cannot pay it back. There is also a demand-side issue. People don't want to borrow - debt is the problem - people are paying it down, not taking more.

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