5 Predictions You Won't See Elsewhere

As a forecaster on The Good Judgment Project, I compete in estimating the probabilities of political and economic events for the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency. One of the lessons I've (re)learned is that "it is exceedingly difficult to make predictions, particularly about the future," to quote physicist Niels Bohr. That gives no pause to financiers, pundits, and experts of all stripes who are always willing, around this time, to offer their predictions for the following year. I won't be left out; here are mine.

U.S. GDP growth will come in below 2%.
In November, the Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents revised their growth projections downward to a "central tendency" of 2.5% to 2.9% and a range of 2.3% to 3.5%. Those estimates look generous to me: Since 1930, average annualized GDP growth is 3.3%; in the post-war era it's 2.9%. With those figures in mind and given the current environment, 2% growth next year would be a good result.

Accelerating growth is typical for an exit from an economic slump, but the height to which a coiled spring bounces back is a function of the degree to which it has been compressed. The Fed took the bite out of the downturn; by symmetry, expect the recovery to remain muted -- particularly so in a climate of extreme uncertainty.

Corporate earnings growth will slow sharply; earnings may even shrink. The S&P 500 will miss its 2012 EPS forecast ($99).
If analysts' estimates of 2012 earnings hold, the S&P 500's earnings per share in 2012 will be just shy of $99, for a 10-year annualized growth rate of 13.6%. Assume 3.5% inflation for next year and the companies in the S&P 500 will have increased their earnings at an average rate of nearly 10% over a 10-year stretch on an inflation-adjusted basis (9.7%, to be precise). You need to go back to the decade ending in 1956 to find a similar period over which real earnings grew that fast. During the following year, 1957, earnings fell by 4% on a real basis. During the following decade, the annualized earnings growth rate fell by two-thirds to 3.2%.

Hang on, weren't earnings depressed 10 years ago as the economy absorbed the twin impacts of the technology bubble meltdown and the 9/11 attacks? Wouldn't that skew upward any growth figures from that point forward? No question about it: 2001-2002 was a trough period for corporate earnings. But so was 1932, surely: Earnings had fallen by two-thirds, inflation-adjusted, from their 1929 peak. Despite this, from 1933 through 1942, companies managed to grow earnings at "only" 7% on a real basis. Ten percent -- the current rate -- is a stratospheric growth rate that will not hold much longer. The timing and magnitude of the slowdown cannot be known with any precision, but it will occur -- count on it.

Volatility will remain high.
I'm hardly going out on a limb with this prediction. Part of what you are being paid for when you hold stocks is your capacity to endure price risk. That capacity was certainly tested this year. During the summer, the VIX index -- which measures option traders' expectations regarding future stock price volatility -- reached levels it had not achieved since, well, since the previous summer.

There is an embarrassment of risks out there, of which the European sovereign debt crisis is currently the most high-profile, keeping markets focused on macroeconomic factors. Expect the VIX to break 35 again this year and the risk on/risk off schizophrenia to remain a fixture in risk asset markets.

My picks for the three best-performing stocks in the Dow index: Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) , Alcoa (NYSE: AA  ) , and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ  ) .
Financials (B of A) and materials (Alcoa) were the worst-performing sectors in the S&P 500 -- by a considerable margin. Given the current sector valuations (2012e P/E for materials: 11.4, financials: 9.7), it wouldn't be surprising if cyclical companies had their day in the sun in 2012. As for HP, when a business has healthy underlying fundamentals and investors revile the stock for reasons the company can address -- that's the time to buy in, then bide your time.

My picks for the three worst-performing stocks in the Dow index: Home Depot (NYSE: HD  ) , Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT  ) , and McDonald's.
Stocks that outperformed in 2011 and over the past three- and five-year periods, and that are now priced at a healthy premium to the index, will perform poorly on a relative basis -- even a consumer-staple stock like Kraft.

Note: Trying to pick winners and losers over a one-year time frame is like a potluck, and that's the spirit in which you should read these predictions. Do your own due diligence whenever you put any money at risk.

It's your turn
If you disagree with my predictions, tell me why in the comments section below and/or give me your alternative prediction.

Fool contributor Alex Dumortier holds no position in any company mentioned. Click here to see his holdings and a short bio. You can follow him on Twitter. The Motley Fool owns shares of Bank of America. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of The Home Depot and McDonald's. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
 


Read/Post Comments (6) | Recommend This Article (17)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On January 04, 2012, at 5:50 PM, Littlejohnnyd wrote:

    Why will materials out perform when you anticipate slow growth?

  • Report this Comment On January 05, 2012, at 11:05 AM, billsig0 wrote:

    bac? wow this is blowing my mind. i purchased bac last year and have over a 50% loss. it goes up some and then it's back down the next day or so. i have been getting ready to sell and absorb the loss but now i will probably wait and see what happens in the next few months

  • Report this Comment On January 05, 2012, at 1:42 PM, futbolgenius wrote:

    I'll keep wonderin why analysts come back to the poisoned well that is BAC. I actually owned BAC in 2011, sold it at a loss of over 30%. The stock is only good for one thing: to offset long term capital gains.

    There's value investing, and then there's calmly pulling out all your Benjamins, pouring gasoline on them and lighting them on fire. BAC will be the latter until it defaults or gets swallowed by another TBTF institution.

    As for your underperforming selections, I'd only quibble with KFT. Solid dividend, a deal with SODA as of today, impending spinoff of their grocery vs snack business, and the child of the spinoff king in Altria. They know what they're doing.

  • Report this Comment On January 05, 2012, at 3:45 PM, mcflex wrote:

    Agree with volatility, and BAC.

    Don’t want to go near tech right now unless its Qualcomm or wireless infrastructure/service related (so out on HPQ)

    How is McD's going to underperform in a down US economy and increased intl. exposure w/ the Olympics? Slower US growth should boost sales for them. Also look for HD to outperform with the hurdles Sears faces and Lowes concentration on premium brands

    Alcoa...if you want to play commodities then do so, this isn’t a growth story, just weathering the storm.

  • Report this Comment On January 06, 2012, at 6:37 AM, nivekluap wrote:

    Ford, the company, is getting better and better...

    1. They are paying down their debt.

    2. They are one step away from investment grade, and when they get there they can restructure that debt and pay less interest making it easier and faster to pay it off.

    3. Reinstatement of a dividend begins in March.

    4. They are making good products that people need to replace. The average age of a vehicle on the road is 10 years old.

    Ford, the stock, will in time take care of itself. I believe Ford will outpace all of the above companies in 2012....but I don't really care about what the market thinks about my investments in the short term. All I care about is what the company is doing for ME. As long as the story gets better, I'll continue to buy on dips and hold, hold, hold.

    Long on Ford.

    KD

  • Report this Comment On January 09, 2012, at 11:35 AM, TMFAleph1 wrote:

    <<i have been getting ready to sell and absorb the loss but now i will probably wait and see what happens in the next few months>>

    It will likely take more than a few months for sentiment to change re. BAC.

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