Editor's note: This article is a stock pitch made by a member on CAPS, The Motley Fool's free investing community. The pitch is published UNEDITED and is the opinion of the CAPS member whose pitch it is, in this case: zzlangerhans.
Each week, Motley Fool editors cull a top stock idea from the pitches made on CAPS, the Motley Fool's 180,000-member free investing community. Want your idea considered for this series? Make a compelling pitch on CAPS with a minimum length of 400 words. Want to follow our weekly picks? Subscribe to our RSS feed or follow us on Twitter.
|Submitted On||Jan. 17, 2012|
|Stock Price at Underperform Recommendation||$1.42|
NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Profile
|Market Cap||$46.4 million|
Sources: S&P Capital IQ, Yahoo! Finance, and Motley Fool CAPS
Over the last six months, NovaBay has been reanimated from the low of 0.7 that followed the abject failure of aganocide NVC-422 in a phase II trial for viral conjunctivitis. The decline was exacerbated by dilutive financing and the general distaste for speculative stocks in the late summer of 2011, and now the company is benefiting from the counterintuitive rush back into the sector. The stock has also felt the bellows effect of Seeking Alpha pumps, an effect which in recent years has proven to be very short-lived (see Zalicus, Cleveland Biolabs, Radient, and Ampion).
These are the reasons others see to be optimistic about NovaBay:
1. A partnership and commercial launch of NeutroPhase in China.
First of all, NeutroPhase is diluted bleach. We've seen how this is working out for Oculus. Second, attempts by Western companies to sell pharmaceuticals in emerging markets in Asia and South America have never amounted to anything in my experience.
2. The company has a partnership with Galderma for NVC-422, who are planning to initiate a phase IIb trial in impetigo in the near future.
A year ago, NovaBay had two large pharmaceutical partners for phase II programs of NVC-422. After the conjunctivitis trial failed, Alcon dropped them like a sack of potatoes. Now they're halfway to having no partners for NVC-422. Furthermore, I've been hearing about the impending initiation of this phase IIb trial for more than a year. If Galderma hasn't kicked it off yet, I have to wonder about their degree of interest in the program.
3. NVC-422 showed a better effect against the adenoviral conjunctivitis subset in the previously mentioned phase II trial and the company is now planning on performing a new phase IIb trial for that indication.
Post-hoc analysis. No statistical significance. Futile.
Foolish bottom line
While this CAPS All-Star thinks you should avoid NovaBay, for a stock you don't have to avoid, check out our brand-new free report on a medical device company Motley Fool analysts believe will be "The Next Rule-Breaking Multibagger."