In the quest to find great investments, most investors focus on earnings to gauge a company's financial strength. This is a good start, but earnings can be misleading and incomplete. To get a clearer understanding of a company's ability to earn money and reward you, the shareholder, it's often better to focus on cash flow. In this series, we tear apart a company's cash flow statement to see how much money is truly being earned, and more important, what management is doing with that cash.
Step on up, Walgreen (NYSE: WAG ) .
The first step in analyzing cash flow is to look at net income. Walgreen's net income over the last five years has been impressive:
| |
2011*
|
2010
|
2009
|
2008
|
2007
|
| Normalized Net Income |
$2.5 billion |
$2.4 billion |
$2.2 billion |
$2.1 billion |
$2.1 billion |
Source: S&P Capital IQ. *12 months ended Nov. 30.
Next, we add back in a few non-cash expenses like the depreciation of assets, and adjust net income for changes in inventory, accounts receivable, and accounts payable -- changes in cash levels that reflect a company either paying its bills or being paid by customers. This yields a figure called cash from operating activities -- the amount of cash a company generates from doing everyday business.
From there, we subtract capital expenditures, or the amount a company spends acquiring or fixing physical assets. This yields one version of a figure called free cash flow, or the true amount of cash a company has left over for its investors after doing business:
| |
2011*
|
2010
|
2009
|
2008
|
2007
|
| Free Cash Flow |
$1.9 billion |
$3.1 billion |
$2.8 billion |
$1.0 billion |
$0.5 billion |
Source: S&P Capital IQ. *12 months ended Nov. 30.
Now we know how much cash Walgreen is really pulling in each year. Next question: What is it doing with that cash?
There are two ways a company can use free cash flow to directly reward shareholders: dividends and share repurchases. Cash not returned to shareholders can be stashed in the bank, used to invest in other companies, or used to pay off debt.
Here's how much Walgreen has returned to shareholders in recent years:
| |
2011*
|
2010
|
2009
|
2008
|
2007
|
| Dividends |
$0.7 billion |
$0.6 billion |
$0.5 billion |
$0.4 billion |
$0.3 billion |
| Share Repurchases |
$2.1 billion |
$2.2 billion |
$0.6 billion |
$0.3 billion |
$0.5 billion |
| Total Returned to Shareholders |
$2.8 billion |
$2.8 billion |
$1.1 billion |
$0.7 billion |
$0.8 billion |
Source: S&P Capital IQ. *12 months ended Nov. 30.
As you can see, the company has repurchased a decent amount of its own stock. That's caused shares outstanding to fall:
| |
2011*
|
2010
|
2009
|
2008
|
2007
|
| Shares Outstanding (Millions) |
903 |
951 |
989 |
989 |
993 |
Source: S&P Capital IQ. *12 months ended Nov. 30.
Now, companies tend to be fairly poor at repurchasing their own shares, buying feverishly when shares are expensive and backing away when they're cheap. Does Walgreen fall into this trap? Let's take a look:
Source: S&P Capital IQ.
There doesn't appear to be much method behind the madness when it comes to Walgreen's buybacks. Management increased buybacks in recent years after shares rebounded from recession lows, but buybacks prior to the share-price rise were fairly meager. In general, Walgreen's buybacks in recent years have likely been a fair deal for shareholders.
Finally, I like to look at how dividends have added to total shareholder returns:
Source: S&P Capital IQ.
Over the last five years, Walgreen shares returned -19%, which drops to -25% without dividends -- not a bad boost to top off otherwise awful share performance.
To gauge how well a company is doing, keep an eye on the cash. How much a company earns is not as important as how much cash is actually coming in the door, and how much cash is coming in the door isn't as important as what management actually does with that cash. Remember, you, the shareholder, own the company. Are you happy with the way management has used Walgreen's cash? Sound off in the comments section below.
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