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Is Nokia a Buffett Stock?

As the world's third-richest person and most celebrated investor, Warren Buffett attracts a lot of attention. Thousands try to glean what they can from his thinking processes and track his investments.

We can't know for sure whether Buffett is about to buy Nokia (NYSE: NOK  ) -- he hasn't specifically mentioned anything about it to me -- but we can discover whether it's the sort of stock that might interest him. Answering that question could also reveal whether it's a stock that should interest us.

In his most recent 10-K, Buffett lays out the qualities he looks for in an investment. In addition to adequate size, proven management, and a reasonable valuation, he demands:

  1. Consistent earnings power.
  2. Good returns on equity with limited or no debt.
  3. Management in place.
  4. Simple, non-techno-mumbo-jumbo businesses.

Does Nokia meet Buffett's standards?

1. Earnings power
Buffett is famous for betting on a sure thing. For that reason, he likes to see companies with demonstrated earnings stability.

Let's examine Nokia's earnings and free cash flow history:

anImage

Source: S&P Capital IQ.

Over the past five years, Nokia's earnings and free cash flow have plunged along with its handset market share.

2. Return on equity and debt
Return on equity is a great metric for measuring both management's effectiveness and the strength of a company's competitive advantage or disadvantage -- a classic Buffett consideration. When considering return on equity, it's important to make sure a company doesn't have an enormous debt burden, because that will skew your calculations and make the company look much more efficient than it is.

Since competitive strength is a comparison between peers, and various industries have different levels of profitability and require different levels of debt, it helps to use an industry context.

Company

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

Return on Equity

5-Year Average Return on Equity

Nokia 38% (10%) 14%
Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI  ) 0% (7%) (17%)
Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM  ) 0% 24% 37%
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) 0% 46% 34%

Source: S&P Capital IQ.

Like the rest of the tech sector, handset makers tend to maintain clean balance sheets, so they have the flexibility to cope with technological change. Unfortunately, Nokia and Motorola Mobility haven't been able to do so very successfully yet, though we just found out that Google's bid to buy Motorola Mobility is likely to be approved. Even Research In Motion's capital efficiency, while still strong, has declined as Apple continues to grab market share from its competitors.

3. Management
CEO Stephen Elop has been at the job since only 2010. Before that, he was at various tech companies including Microsoft, Juniper, and Adobe.

4. Business
As the past several years -- which have shown the rise of the Palm Pilot, then the BlackBerry, and then the iPhone and Android devices -- have shown, the handset market is extraordinarily susceptible to technological disruption.

The Foolish conclusion
So is Nokia a Buffett stock? Probably not, as it doesn't exhibit the characteristics of a quintessential Buffett investment: consistent earnings, high returns on equity, tenured management, and a technologically straightforward business. However, if you're looking for stocks to profit from the latest mobile trends, I invite you to check out "3 Hidden Winners of the iPhone, iPad, and Android Revolution."

The Steve Jobs Betrayal
You may already know that in the final year of his life, Jobs revealed a stunning betrayal — and told his biographer, "I will spend my last dying breath... and every penny of Apple's $40 billion in the bank to right this wrong." What was it that made Jobs so irate — and why could it make a few in-the-know investors some major profits over the coming months and years?

Enter your email address below to find out what made Jobs so enraged!

Ilan Moscovitz owns shares of Apple and Google. The Motley Fool owns shares of Apple. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of and creating a bull call spread position in Apple. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On February 11, 2012, at 6:49 PM, InfoThatHelp wrote:

    Nokia is truly a great dark horse that may unseat Android in the longer run, and kill Research In Motion without any doubt in the short run.

  • Report this Comment On February 11, 2012, at 7:27 PM, drflick wrote:

    Nokia will become a great turnaround story and a great investment for many reasons. First, anyone writing a negative article about Nokia these days should be required to actually play with the Lumia 800 for a week or two. After using it, they will never write another bad thing about the company. The new Lumia phones are elegantly designed and engineered and blow away any other phone on the market. Yes, the Iphone is also great and is probably the closest thing to being as nice and solid as the lumia, but everything else (e.g., all google phones and blackberrys just fall short). So, you might say that the windows OS is not that great. Well, that was perhaps true prior to Mango and the 7.5 release. This OS is smooth as silk, and loaded with all sorts of functionality that can't be found elsewhere. Couple that with Office and Xbox and you just don't have anything else close. Microsoft is paying Nokia billiions of dollars to stay in this race and believe me they both are not in this to fail. Nokia is leaps and bounds above samsung, htc, and all others in engineering and design. So, when people and businesses finally see that the windows OS is here to stay and is actually as good and perhaps better than everything else out there (and they can get these phones much cheaper than the overpriced iphone), it's game over for Apple and Google. Oh, and if Windows 8 is a success (and it will be), there will be even more compellling reasons to get the Windows Phone and Nokia will be there to sell you the best one on the market. Don't forget tablets too, which Nokia will undoubtedly produce better than anyone else. I'm long NOK.

  • Report this Comment On February 12, 2012, at 3:46 PM, ajaykc wrote:

    Every stock pundit on wallst. has reasons to bash Nokia and they may be right. But they have been wrong several times. BNP Pariba's analyst predicted that Lumia numbers will be less than 500k for 4th quarter and then there was other clown who predicted similar things. Forbe article said: Nokia is not innovative and Lumia doesn't offer anything new. I can say exactly same thing for all android devices and even apple. Iphone 4S doesn't have anything innovative compared to iPhone 4 and 3. People need to ask one question. Why did android succeed?

    Here is my reasoning: It provided an alternative to apple's eco system. It was cheaper, was as good as iPhone if not better. It was widely available and endorsed by operators.

    So, Nokia will succeed given they launch products and make it available to more operators and get endorsed by operators. Go out of USA and you will find why and how much people love Nokia. There has been disruptions due to focus change from Symbian to Windows phones. Things are changing at Nokia. Nokia has collaborated with so many operators in Europe and some in US. They are aggressively adding new partners throughout the world. Lets see numbers in 1st quarter of 2012 and see if they are a viable competitor to iphones, androids, and blackberries.

  • Report this Comment On February 12, 2012, at 5:38 PM, PSU69 wrote:

    I see in April of 2010 you went long for NOKIA in your caps ajaykc. One point of focus that may or may not be interesting to all of us who watch the phone segment is Apple has the phone as a music and phone device. In my home, we have a flock of iPods. It is NOT just the phone features. It is the lifestyle integration and how the designs and software thinkers facilitate integration of the devices into our lifestyles. For example, I had to leave iPhone due to poor reception (ATT where I live along Lake Erie is tragic). The operation of iPhone was fun (apps, camera, screen quality). It was (for me) a terrible phone to to hang ups and barely audible connections.

  • Report this Comment On February 12, 2012, at 11:36 PM, techy46 wrote:

    Nokia could be the quidessential quad home run if Micorsoft's Windows 8 is as good as some expect. Nokia's lead in WP7 phones could lead to a tremendous advantage as the true value of the Windows 8 Metro touch based interface becomes visible Nokia's Windows 8 phones and tablets could become a real marketing winner.

  • Report this Comment On February 13, 2012, at 1:23 AM, ajaykc wrote:

    @PSU69

    When I went long Nokia first time, I went long because of beaten down price and dividends. I went long because Nokia had/has best emerging market exposure in mobile phone industry. It worked for that year until 2011 came along. Things changed at Nokia and I like new Nokia even more but I see your point. Investors hate Nokia and they have reasons for that. I like underdogs and I kinda believe in the story. Somehow I like the boldness of Nokia's CEO. There are very few in the industry who will be so open and precisely say what they feel after an introspection. That honesty just hit me and I fell in love with this CEO. So I am in. I will hold my stock until Nokia gets on its feet or I loose all my money (if Nokia goes wallst. way, I mean bankrupt). I maybe truly naive when it comes to investing but I have conviction and its not going to change so easy.

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Related Tickers

5/25/2012 4:01 PM
NOK $2.82 Up +0.08 +2.92%
Nokia CAPS Rating: ***
RIMM $11.00 Up +0.29 +2.71%
Research In Motion… CAPS Rating: *
MMI $0.00 Down +0.00 +0.00%
Motorola Mobility… CAPS Rating: ***
AAPL $562.29 Down -3.03 -0.54%
Apple CAPS Rating: ***

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