Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of watchmaker Fossil
So what: Despite the strong market reaction, Fossil's results were actually a bit of a mixed bag. On the clear "plus" side was the company's earnings per share of $1.87, which is up 28% from last year and well ahead of the $1.77 that Wall Street was expecting. The YOY growth was driven by operating-income growth of 16%, a lower tax rate, and a nearly 5% decrease in the number of shares outstanding.
Revenue for the quarter increased 18.5%, which is impressive growth, but the $831 million total was short of the $841 million that analysts had estimated.
Now what: Guidance wasn't overly bullish either. For the first quarter, the company sees EPS between $0.90 and $0.91, which is solidly below Wall Street estimates of $0.98. For the full year, the company projected per-share profit of $5.40 to $5.50, which, at the midpoint, is a penny above analysts' current view.
In all, it certainly wasn't a bad report from Fossil, and in a tough retail environment, it's encouraging that management's guidance basically lines up with the expectations that were already out there. However, the extremely strong market reaction today does have me shaking my head a bit.
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