Some stocks are one-hit wonders, making a big splash when they first appear, then quickly fizzling into obscurity or oblivion. But for other stocks, that initial big move is only a preview for even bigger and better gains to come.
Today, we've listed a pair of stocks that made some of the biggest upward moves over the past month, despite the incredible volatility in the market, which we'll pair with the ratings issued by our Motley Fool CAPS community. The higher each stock's rating, the greater CAPS members' faith in that company's ability to keep on beating the market.
1 Month % Change
(out of 5)
|BroadVision (Nasdaq: BVSN )
|National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG )
Source: FinViz.com; 1 month % change from Jan. 12 to Feb. 13.
The markets have moved strongly higher in the past month, but they may turn tail again if Europe's fragile financial system falls apart. So before we get shaken out again, let's see why the CAPS community thinks of these stocks.
When the only thing that can get your stock moving is the investment advice of a famous pump-and-dump penny-stock promoter, you know your business strategy needs to be honed to a sharper edge. But then when your CEO doubles down on failed policies that sunk the company in the past, well, as the Fool's Sean Williams says, it "completely put(s) the stock off limits."
The key to whether the BroadVision rally will last is whether the enterprise social network concept will gain as much traction as BroadVision, the stock promoters, and long investors suggest. The b2b software firm offers Clearvale, a means for businesses to connect to public social networks like Facebook or Twitter. It won't replace the social network sites, but like offerings from rival Jive Software would allow for traffic to be directed to the hosted site, where more control over content can be maintained.
That could be key because there have been a number of high-profile social media campaigns that have ended in flaming failure. McDonald's (NYSE: MCD ) recent attempt to have customers share stories about their burger experiences at the #McDStories hashtag ended up running into customers who shared horror stories instead.
But with its recent quarterly results showing falling revenues, wider losses, and lower demand for services, it would appear Sean Williams' concern over BroadVision maintaining the status quo was spot on. CAPS member Azfang agrees, saying it can't escape its own history let alone that of those touting it:
It's a tiny company that's been losing money for years, only to suddenly double in price for no apparent reason after a recommendation from a known penny stock pumper. Hmm.
I agree there's not enough to warrant the big move higher. I marked it to underperform on CAPS, but tell us in the comments section below if you agree, then add it to your watchlist to see how it plays out.
I'd call it a dead cat bounce, but since Greece did have the nerve to approve the austerity measures Europe was forcing on it even in the face of mass rioting, it's possible National Bank of Greece may yet hold on. At the very least, it may have another lifeline thrown to it.
European markets ignore the crisis that still simmers beneath the surface as if each new milestone means distance is being put between it and catastrophe, yet it really just serves to show just how deep the problems are. Motley Fool blogger Eric Volkman points to financial results from UBS, Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB ) , and Banco Santander (NYSE: STD ) to show just how broadly across the continent the infection has spread. All three banks posted big profit drops that disappointed investors because of their exposure to Europe generally and the continent's weakest economies in particular.
Having already rated on CAPS for National Bank of Greece to underperform (and in reality ultimately fail), I'll be maintaining my rating on the financial institution. As VolkOseba said, I just don't think it's a house destined to stand:
It'll go up in the short term due to the prospect of bailouts, but I'm not too interested in how tall a house of cards can get before it falls.
Add the bank to the Fool's free portfolio tracker and tell us on the National Bank of Greece CAPS page if you think it will eventually collapse under the weight.
Shake, rattle, and roll
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