5 Companies You Can Buy Today

There are many ways to value a company. Price to earnings. Price to cash flow. Liquidation value. Price per eyeballs on website. Price to a number I made up (this one never gets old). Price to CEO's ego divided by lobbying activity as a percentage of revenue (this one doesn't get used enough).

Which one is best? They're all limited and reliant on assumptions. No single metric holds everything you need to know.

The metric I'm using today is no different. But it's perhaps the most encompassing, and least susceptible to the hidden complexities of a company's financial statements. The more I think about it, the more I feel it's one of the most useful metrics out there.

What is it? Enterprise value over unlevered free cash flow. 

  • Enterprise value is market capitalization (share price times shares outstanding) plus total debt and minority interests, minus cash.
  • Unlevered cash flow is free cash flow with interest paid on outstanding debt added back in.

The ratio of these two statistics provides a valuation metric that takes into consideration all providers of capital -- both stockholders and bondholders.

But you invest in common stock, so why should you care about bondholders? Ask Lehman Brothers investors why. When a company earns money, it has to take care of bondholders before you, the common shareholder, get a dime. Focusing solely on profits and equity can be misleading.

Enterprise value provides a more encompassing view. By bringing debt capital into the situation, we see real earnings in relation to the company's entire capital structure. If you owned the entire business, this is the metric you'd naturally gravitate toward.

Using this metric, here are five companies that look attractive.

Company

Enterprise Value/ Unlevered FCF

5-Year Average

 

CAPS Rating (out of 5)

Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL  ) 11.2 15.7 ****
Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT  ) 11.1 14.4 ***
Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY  ) 10.0 16.5 ****
UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH  ) 10.0 10.6 *****
Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ  ) 8.8 15.0 ***

Source: S&P Capital IQ.

Let's say a few words about these companies.

Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks over the last 10 years, and for good reason: Ten years ago, small companies were cheaper than larger ones. Today, it's flipped, with some of the largest companies in world also being the cheapest. Oracle is a good example. Dominant, well-managed, and guarded by a moat, Oracle trades at a valuation well below the market average. Going forward, investors will likely get what they pay for: returns well above the market average.

Microsoft is similar. I've recommended the software giant several times over the last three years, and see no reason to change course. The company wisely cranked up its dividend payout last fall, likely helping to fuel a 25% rally. Yet shares still look like a bargain, trading at around 10 times free cash flow -- and this for a company with a fortress balance sheet and more cash than it knows what to do with. Depictions of Microsoft as a dying relic are overblown; the company's finances and earning power are stronger than ever.

The pharmaceutical industry went from one of the most popular and richly valued a decade ago to one of the most ignored and cheapest today. When attitudes flip from exuberant to exhausted, opportunity presents itself. Bristol-Myers Squibb offers one of the highest dividends among large-cap stocks in the market, trades at just over 10 times cash flow, and should at least maintain earnings power over the coming years. No lights will be blown out owning this company, but even mediocre businesses can generate good results if the price is right. And for Bristol-Myers, it is.

The story for UnitedHealth is simple: The company is large, has pricing power, is riding an ever-growing boom in health care and an aging population, and trades at a favorable price. Even after a sharp rally, shares still look attractive. Shares have doubled since 2009, but so have normalized earnings. A growing industry at a good price is a rare -- and wonderful -- combination.

Hewlett-Packard shares tumbled last week after earnings disappointed. But keep in mind how silly things have become: Even after dampened outlooks and downgrades, HP shares still trade at 6.5 times forward earnings estimates. Current earnings estimates could end up being 50% too optimistic, and HP shares would still trade below the market average. This is when investing gets interesting: When really bad, worst-case outcomes leave shares attractively valued.

If you're looking for other great stock picks, check out the Motley Fool's free report, "Secure Your Future With 11 Rock-Solid Dividend Stocks." It's free. Just click here to grab a copy.

Fool contributor Morgan Housel owns shares of Microsoft. His latest e-book, 50 Years in the Making: The Great Recession and Its Aftermath, can be purchased on Amazon for your Kindle or iPad. Follow him on Twitter @TMFHousel. The Motley Fool owns shares of Oracle and Microsoft. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of UnitedHealth Group and Microsoft. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended creating a bull call spread position in Microsoft. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (7) | Recommend This Article (54)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On February 29, 2012, at 3:54 PM, EnigmaDude wrote:

    Great blog and some good picks but limited to Tech and Healthcare. Are there are some other sectors that might also have candidates? How does Ford (F) stack up in this analysis?

    EV = 123B

    CF = 3.6B

    Not so great, I guess, but there must be some other companies outside of Tech and Healthcare. I do agree that HP is looking mighty fine lately.

  • Report this Comment On March 01, 2012, at 1:01 AM, sikiliza wrote:

    @mikebent23

    The smart money tends to get ahead of itself a lot of the time. For example, if you followed Paulson or Bill Gross last year, you would be out a bunch. Had you bet against Netflix with whitney Tilson back in 2010, you once again would have gotten cleaned out - his bet turned out to be right on the money but a couple of quarters too early.

    The leading hedge fund in 2011, Bridgewater, led by Ray Dallio, makes macro-bets that are beyond the reach of you and I so that's out of the question.

    Having said that, I do hope that you are also carrying out your own due diligence and making some effort to understand how the smart money gets to their decisions.

  • Report this Comment On March 01, 2012, at 6:37 PM, MonsterFluff wrote:

    "The biggest patent casualty in 2012 will be Sanofi and Bristol-Myers’ Plavix; generics are already denting European sales but the entry of cheaper version of the blood thinner in the US in May - delayed from last year - will really hit sales. Bristol-Myers, which booked revenues of $7bn from the drug last year, is expected to see sales more than halve this year and decline to $221m by 2016."

    http://www.epvantage.com/Universal/View.aspx?type=Story&...

    Plavix is 30% 0f BMY's $21 billion in revenue. Do you think at $32 there is no downside? ie is the market already pricing in the loss?

  • Report this Comment On March 02, 2012, at 1:34 AM, crudeoiltrader wrote:

    UNH is a long time position of ours, ORCL is brand new to our fund and one of the few tech stocks with a reliable dividend. Mr. Softy? We'll resist this one for some time to come.

  • Report this Comment On March 02, 2012, at 1:49 AM, Howard1ii wrote:

    HP may be cheap, but they are completely directionless, and seem to be chasing their tail. Their Board of Directors is in disarray, and changing CEO's every year or so is not helping. Stick with IBM, they have a vision, a plan and are executing to it.

  • Report this Comment On March 02, 2012, at 10:58 AM, SashiP wrote:

    Hi

    Could someone please explain what you take into account when working out "Unlevered cash flow".

    Eg is this the figure from the Cash Report in the financial statements.

  • Report this Comment On March 04, 2012, at 9:43 PM, crca99 wrote:

    I just read your other article on UNH which seemed to question how they spend their extra cash buying their own stock at its highest prices. That's in contradiction to this article with favorable tone about a growing business in growing industry. Ugh, too much thinking.

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