Oil Prices Determine Exxon's Stock Price

ExxonMobil's stock price has had trouble pushing past its current resistance level of $87, but has some projects up its sleeve. The company has partnered with Russian company Rosneft to explore for oil in Russia's arctic and Black Sea regions, according to a Motley Fool writer. However, the results from those explorations won't be seen until 2018, and the stock price might not reflect the benefits from them.

So what will be pushing the company's stock price? Currently, it appears that the price of oil has the most affect on it, so the focus should be on the projections for oil prices. In the short term, the projected cost of crude oil was lowered by $2 per barrel from last month's outlook of $114 per barrel, which is still $10 higher than last year's average price.

In the long term, oil prices are expected to climb, and Exxon is cutting their long-term production forecast due to the higher oil prices. CEO Rex Tillerson said that the company estimates that the total oil and gas production in 2014 will be up 2-3% from 2009, instead of previous forecast of 4-5%. They also expect crude oil prices to remain high for the next few years.

Business section: Investing ideas
If Exxon's stock price is closely following how oil prices move, it would be good for investors if oil is more expensive. Below is a list of oil companies that are undervalued according to their Graham number. Do you think these companies will take advantage of the higher oil prices? (Click here to access free, interactive tools to analyze these ideas.)

1. Chevron: Engages in petroleum, chemicals, mining, power generation, and energy operations worldwide. It has a market cap of $202.24B. Diluted TTM earnings per share at 13.44, and a MRQ book value per share value at 61.27, implies a Graham Number fair value = sqrt(22.5*13.44*61.27) = $136.12. Based on the stock's price at $100.78, this implies a potential upside of 35.06% from current levels.

2. ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP  ) : Operates as an integrated energy company worldwide. It has a market cap of $92.78 billion. Diluted TTM earnings per share at 8.97 and a MRQ book value per share value at 50.73 imply a Graham number fair value of $101.19. Based on the stock's price at $73.63, this implies a potential upside of 37.42% from current levels.

3. Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI  ) : Supplies wellbore related products, and technology services and systems for drilling, formation evaluation, completion and production, and reservoir technology and consulting to the oil and natural gas industry worldwide. It has a market cap of $17.70 billion. Diluted TTM earnings per share at 3.97 and a MRQ book value per share value at 36.03 imply a Graham number fair value of $56.73. Based on the stock's price at $41.05, this implies a potential upside of 38.2% from current levels.

4. Murphy Oil: Engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas properties worldwide. It has a market cap of $10.40 billion. Diluted TTM earnings per share at 4.49 and a MRQ book value per share value at 45.31 imply a Graham number fair value of $67.66. Based on the stock's price at $52.76, this implies a potential upside of 28.24% from current levels.

5. Atwood Oceanics: Engages in offshore drilling, and the completion of exploratory and developmental oil and gas wells. It has a market cap of $2.82 billion. Diluted TTM earnings per share at 4.34 and a MRQ book value per share value at 26.4 imply a Graham number fair value of $50.77. Based on the stock's price at $42.69, this implies a potential upside of 18.94% from current levels.

6. Ultra Petroleum (NYSE: UPL  ) : Engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, production, and operation of oil and natural gas properties in the United States. It has a market cap of $2.77 billion. Diluted TTM earnings per share at 2.94 and a MRQ book value per share value at 10.45 imply a Graham number fair value of $26.29. Based on the stock's price at $19.00, this implies a potential upside of 38.38% from current levels.

7. CVR Energy: Together with its subsidiaries, refines and markets transportation fuels in the United States. It has a market cap of $2.61 billion. Diluted TTM earnings per share at 3.94 and a MRQ book value per share value at 13.27 imply a Graham number fair value of $34.30. Based on the stock's price at $28.12, this implies a potential upside of 21.97% from current levels.

8. Stone Energy (NYSE: SGY  ) : Engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and operation of oil and gas properties located in the Gulf of Mexico and Appalachia region. It has a market cap of $1.29 billion. Diluted TTM earnings per share at 3.97 and a MRQ book value per share value at 13.9 imply a Graham number fair value of $35.24. Based on the stock's price at $26.72, this implies a potential upside of 31.87% from current levels.

9. Swift Energy: Engages in developing, exploring, acquiring, and operating oil and natural gas properties in Louisiana and Texas. It has a market cap of $1.14 billion. Diluted TTM earnings per share at 2.28 and a MRQ book value per share value at 23.46 imply a Graham number fair value of $34.69. Based on the stock's price at $27.64, this implies a potential upside of 25.51% from current levels.

10. C&J Energy Services (Nasdaq: CJES  ) : Through its wholly owned subsidiary, C&J Spec-Rent Services, provides specialty equipment services for oil and natural gas exploration and production companies in the Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma regions of the United States. It has a market cap of $850.94 million. Diluted TTM earnings per share at 3.19 and a MRQ book value per share value at 7.61 imply a Graham number fair value of $23.37. Based on the stock's price at $17.03, this implies a potential upside of 37.23% from current levels.

Interactive Chart: Press Play to compare changes in analyst ratings over the last two years for the stocks mentioned above. Analyst ratings sourced from Zacks Investment Research.


 

Kapitall's Danny Guttridge does not own any of the shares mentioned above. EPS and BVPS data sourced from Yahoo! Finance, all other data sourced from Finviz. The Motley Fool owns shares of Ultra Petroleum. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of ExxonMobil, Atwood Oceanics, Chevron, and Ultra Petroleum. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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