Shares of American Tower (NYSE: AMT ) just hit a 52-week high today. Let's take a look at how it got there and whether clear skies are in the forecast.
How it got here
The story behind American Tower's move higher is a sectorwide trend of growth for the antenna tower providers. The thesis behind owning antenna tower stocks is that as data demand grows -- which is all the time, thanks to the demand for high-speed mobile access -- the need for antenna space on these towers will grow as well. The antenna towers, run by American Tower, Crown Castle International (NYSE: CCI ) , and SBA Communications (Nasdaq: SBAC ) , are set up in such a way that adding additional antennas is quick and cost-efficient, leaving these companies with gross margins typically around 70% or greater.
The one concern with the antenna sector is, of course, the capital-intensive costs associated with building and acquiring those towers. Much of the sector is mired under mountains of debt, and these companies rely on strong cash flow to drive growth and to pay down existing debt. Thankfully for American Tower shareholders, the company adopted a plan to become a REIT as of Jan. 1, and it intends to distribute 100% of its taxable income in the form of a dividend. I'm sure that partially explains why the stock is trading at a new 52-week high as well.
How it stacks up
Let's take a look at how American Tower stacks up next to its peers.
AMT data by YCharts.
From top to bottom, this sector tends to trade in tandem.
||$352 million / $7.2 billion
|Crown Castle International
||$80 million / $6.9 billion
||$53 million / $3.4 billion
Source: Morningstar. NM = not meaningful.
This definitely is not a sector that caters to value investors. SBA Communications has been losing money consistently for years, thanks to depreciation on its towers and lower margins than its two peers. Crown Castle presents a considerably better option than SBA, but let's still be clear that with nearly $7 billion in debt, no dividend, and a forward P/E that's markedly higher than American Tower, it also is easy to pass up. Even at 22.4 times cash flow, American Tower and its roughly 45,000 worldwide towers is the obvious best pick in this sector.
Another key factor to consider is the overall operating cash flow of these companies over the past 12 months. Despite having the most debt overall, American Tower has $1.12 billion in operating cash flow, which is equal to 15.4% of its outstanding debt, while SBA, with only $3.4 billion in debt, produced operating cash flow that would only cover 7.4% of its outstanding debt. In short, American Tower is the best-positioned antenna company by the numbers and is also the most capable of paying down its debt.
Now for the real question: What's next for American Tower? That answer really depends on whether or not the company can keep its debt levels under control and whether the demand for wireless services continues to accelerate. Based on Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL ) blockbuster results that highlighted the sale of 35.06 million iPhones during a three-month period (with most of those sales coming from international markets), it's probably safe to say that wireless data demand isn't ebbing even the slightest bit.
Our very own CAPS community gives the company a four-star rating (out of five), with 90.7% of members expecting it to outperform. Although I have yet to make a CAPScall on American Tower prior to today, I'm finally ready to endorse it to the upside.
One of the primary factors that held me back was the lack of a dividend. Now that there's a shareholder incentive to owning this REIT, I feel it's a smart way for income-seeking investors to add growth to their portfolio without the wild swings associated with high-volatility technology stocks. Also, strong spending forecasts from AT&T (NYSE: T ) and Verizon signal that we're nowhere near the ninth inning of infrastructure build-out -- even in the United States. American Tower is well diversified and its strong cash flow is worthy of a spot in my CAPS portfolio.
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