Why Fossil Shares Got Crushed

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of fashion accessories specialist Fossil (Nasdaq: FOSL  ) sank a staggering 37% on Tuesday after its quarterly sales and outlook disappointed Wall Street.

So what: Fossil's first-quarter EPS managed to squeak by estimates, but a top-line miss -- $589.5 million versus the consensus of $617.6 million -- coupled with a weak full-year outlook is triggering huge concerns over its susceptibility to European woes. In fact, close rivals Movado Group (NYSE: MOV  ) and PVH (NYSE: PVH  ) are also down big on those worries.  

Now what: Management now sees full-year EPS of $5.30-$5.40, well below Wall Street's view of $5.56. "While we are cautious about the European economy and its impact on our financial results, we remain confident that continued strength in watch sales, same store sales and square footage growth in our retail business, the continued rollout of concessions in Asia Pacific and the integration of Skagen Designs ... will result in double-digit sales and earnings growth for fiscal 2012," CFO Mike Kovar reassured investors. With the stock now off about 45% from its 52-week highs and trading at a forward P/E in the low teens, buying into that optimism might not be a bad move.

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