Last month, I argued that 3-D cinema systems supplier RealD
Fast-forward three weeks. The stock is up about 20% and is still rallying on the strength of expectations for Sony's
I'll get into the Spidey review in a minute. First, let's cover what's happened between my first prediction and now.
Taking a stand
As we Fools are encouraged to do, I took action after waxing bullish on RealD. First, I made an outperform CAPScall on the stock. Then, on May 30, I purchased call options with a $10 strike price expiring on Aug. 17 for $2.57 a share. At the time, RealD common was trading for about $11.61 a share.
My thesis for this options play: Buy some intrinsic value to protect against a substantial drop in price while allowing for upside if a great report and strong box-office numbers sent the stock skyrocketing toward analysts' approximate $17-per-share price target.
So far my options position is about even -- or up sharply if you look at the "ask" price, which is $4.40 per share as of this writing. The "ask" matters, because it's the price at which sellers agree to part with their positions.
A business busting off the screen
RealD crushed Wall Street targets for both revenue and earnings when it reported on May 31. And while license revenue fell year over year because of comparably poor box-office sales, an impressive performance from Lions Gate's
How does that compare with last year? RealD booked $724 million at the gate during the entire first quarter of fiscal 2012. Thus, with five weeks to go -- and only two weekends of gate results for The Avengers, one of the biggest 3-D hits of all time -- the company had already booked 79% of last year's tally. All signs point to huge gains in licensing revenue.
Cue the Spider-Man theme music...
And yet the recent rally in RealD shares is as much about anticipation as it is past performance. The stock jumped nearly 4% on above-average volume when U.K. newspaper The Guardian posted a positive review of The Amazing Spider-Man that made reference to the RealD experience. Reviewer Andrew Pulver writes (emphasis added):
In reengineering [Peter] Parker into the introspective, uncertain male more typical of his previous film, [Director Mike] Webb is aided by a terrific performance from Andrew Garfield, who brings a genial unflappability that allows him to negotiate the often-ludicrous demands of the superhero plotline. At the same time, Webb also shows an unarguable facility for the more traditional action elements of the story, and the 3-D certainly helps: he pulls off some properly nauseating shots as Parker dives off skyscrapers, rescues kids from falling, and the like.
Conclusion: RealD pays off when it's central to the filmmaking process, as it was here. Investors should benefit as a result.
Breaking bad rules
Think I'm right? Wrong? Either way, it pays off to study disruptions in the making, for the market tends to reward those who lead rebellions. These are the sorts of companies we look for in our Motley Fool Rule Breakers newsletter service. Want in? Check out a 30-day trial subscription. If that's not up your alley just yet, you can still check out a free special report detailing the next trillion-dollar revolution.