July 6, 2012
Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of data-integration-software specialist Informatica (Nasdaq: INFA ) plummeted 30% today after its current-quarter forecast came in well below Wall Street estimates.
So what: Informatica had posted 31 consecutive quarters of consistent results, but the wide second-quarter miss is forcing several analysts to lower their growth estimates considerably. Continued uncertainty in Europe -- Informatica's second-largest market -- led to a bunch of delayed contracts and downsized deals, suggesting that the company is much more susceptible to the continent's troubles than Mr. Market had thought.
Now what: For the second quarter, management now sees adjusted EPS of $0.27-$28 and revenue of $188 million-$190 million, well below Wall Street's view of $0.37 and $217.2 million. "Clearly, we did not adapt as rapidly as we should have to the changing macroeconomic environment, especially in Europe," Chairman and CEO Sohaib Abbasi said. "Our singular focus now is to redouble our efforts and operational discipline for growth in the second half of 2012 and beyond." Of course, with the stock hitting a new two-year low today and down about 50% from its 52-week high, betting on that turnaround might be worth looking into.
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