Why Rovi's Shares Rose

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Rovi Corporation (Nasdaq: ROVI  ) briefly saw 10% gains this morning, a rather inexplicable response to an underwhelming earnings report. The company saw $158.3 million in revenues for its latest quarter against $179.0 million in the year-ago quarter, and posted an $18.5 million GAAP loss, larger than the $10.7 million loss from the year-ago quarter. On a non-GAAP basis, Rovi reported $39 million in adjusted pro forma income, which was also a big slide from the year-ago quarter's $69 million non-GAAP income.

Rovi also licensed patents to Google (Nasdaq: GOOG  ) yesterday for fiber-based TV service. The search giant recently rolled out a superfast fiber connection in Kansas City. This announcement may have affected Rovi's move today, but it was announced yesterday morning, so the more likely reason is Rovi's post-close earnings report.

So what: This isn't Rovi's first whiff -- the company's now missed EPS estimates four quarters in a row. Rovi also reduced its full-year guidance, projecting between $650 million-$680 million in revenue and $1.60-$1.90 in adjusted EPS. That's well below guidance released this May, which called for $755 million-$785 million in revenue and $2.35-$2.65 in adjusted income. The new guidance is in line with analyst expectations, which projected $663 million in full-year revenue and adjusted full-year earnings of $1.73.

Now what: Rovi's continued decline didn't get good news today, but the market may have sell-off fatigue, as the indexes are all up quite a bit. Today's bounce looks like a dead cat to me. There's nothing in the company's latest news that recommends its stock today, especially considering how far it's fallen over the past year.

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