I went out on a limb last week, and now it's time to see how that played out.
- I predicted that Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM ) would lose more money than the $0.47 a share that analysts were expecting. Well, Friday's pop in the stock of the BlackBerry maker should tip you off as to how that prediction played out. RIM did lose money for the third consecutive quarter, but it was a lot less red ink than the market was forecasting. I was wrong.
- I predicted that the tech-heavy Nasdaq would outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEX: ^DJI ) . This has been a winning call lately, as faster-growing tech stocks outpace the Dow's 30 blue chips. The market was weak last week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq shed 2% of its value. However, the Dow managed to lose just 1.1% on the week. I was wrong.
- My final call was for Actuant (NYSE: ATU ) to beat Wall Street's profit target. The provider of products and services for energy-related industries had landed ahead of the prognosticators consistently in recent quarters. Actuant earned $0.55 a share, narrowly beating the analysts were expecting. I was right.
One out of three? I can do better than that.
Let me once again whip out my trusty, dusty, and occasionally accurate crystal ball to make three calls that may play out over the next few trading days.
1.OCZ Technology will lose more money than analysts are expecting
There are a few reasons the $0.15-a-share deficit that Wall Street is forecasting out of OCZ Technology (NYSE: OCZ ) may be a bit generous.
For starters, the maker of solid-state drives has come up short on the bottom line in three of its past four quarters. OCZ also warned of disappointing quarterly results this summer, and that's weighing down the analysts.
Wall Street saw OCZ breaking even for this quarter three months ago. The target was a deficit of $0.06 a share a month ago, and it's up to $0.15 now. The trend is working against OCZ, so I'm betting on a larger loss than Wall Street is forecasting here.
2.The Nasdaq Composite will beat the Dow this week
Betting on tech over stodgy blue chips was a steady winning bet for me earlier this year. This has been a losing bet lately, but I still think technology is the best sector to be invested in these days.
I'm going to stick with this pick. Most of the names in the composite are just too cheap at this point.
The market is ripe for the tech-stacked secondary stocks to continue to outpace the 30 megacaps that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average as we kick off the fourth quarter.
3.Xyratex will beat Wall Street's earnings estimates
Some stocks are just flat-out better than others.
Xyratex (Nasdaq: XRTX ) is a data-storage specialist. Its hard disk drive capital equipment lets disk-drive makers and their suppliers meet productivity requirements.
Another thing it does is make analysts look like perpetual underachievers.
If analysts say that the company earned $0.44 a share in its latest quarter, I'll whip out a "greater than" sign. History's on my side!
One of my best tricks to beating the market is finding stocks that perpetually land ahead of the prognosticators. Let's go over the past year of earnings reports.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
Did you catch the trend? It was blowing Wall Street clear out of the water a year ago, but the pros have drawn closer with every passing quarter. Xyratex also toils away in an industry that's susceptible to slowdowns in corporate technology spending.
But that shouldn't matter. Everything seems to be falling into place for another strong quarter on the bottom line.
Three for the road
Well, there are three predictions right there. Let's see how I fare this week.
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