The Biggest Opportunities for Nokia Investors

In the video below, Motley Fool analysts Austin Smith and Charly Travers discuss Nokia (NYSE: NOK  ) . Charly, author of Motley Fool's premium research report on Nokia, speaks about some of the biggest opportunities for the company today.

Nokia is a very popular stock on The Motley Fool. The company has recently changed platforms to Windows. Since Nokia has virtually no presence in the North American market, there are some real opportunities for the company there. Nokia already has a strong presence in emerging markets like India and China, and it has a whole range of price points so that the company can have price offerings in places around the world.

Apple  (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) is well respected, but there is a solid market for lower-priced phones in emerging markets, where the average yearly income is around just $4,000. Nokia has gotten on board with China Mobile (NYSE: CHL  ) , which has over 700 million subscribers. As Apple is not with this carrier, this partnership could be huge opportunity for Nokia.

Yet Nokia has been struggling in a world of Apple and Android smartphone dominance. However, the company has banked its future on its next generation of Windows smartphones. Motley Fool analyst Charly Travers has created a new premium report that digs into both the opportunities and risks facing Nokia to help investors decide if the company is a buy or sell. To get started, simply click here now.


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  • Report this Comment On December 11, 2012, at 7:15 PM, KyleSpencerMF wrote:

    PhoneArena just chose Nokia´s PureView camera technology in phones as the best innovation of the year. Also Lumia 920 belongs to the best product designs of the year.

    Lumia 920 wins Gizmodo Australia’s Mobile Phone of the Year 2012 People’s Choice Award.

    The Independent UK calls the Nokia Lumia 920 “probably the most advanced smartphone on the market”.

  • Report this Comment On December 11, 2012, at 7:16 PM, KyleSpencerMF wrote:

    Nokia did announce a couple of months ago (when asked why it bought Norway´s Smarterphone but has not used the OS) that Nokia bought Smarterphone because of the company´s expertise, in order to develop Nokia´s feature phones which are going to be kind of half smartphones right now, e.g. the newest Asha 205 and Asha 206, in which there are features like Facebook, Twitter etc and internet access to thousands of Nokia´s most popular apps.

    Either Nokia has integrated Smarterphone into S40, we don´t know, but the fact is Nokia´s feature phones have become really smarter!

    Apart from the features I mentioned above in the new Asha phones,

    Nokia has already brought an app called Nearby (which is almost the same as Lumia´s City Lens) into Asha phone line!

    In addition to all these, Nokia has 40 most popular games of the world in these Asha phones for free. And Asha 205, 206 is only $60 without any contract at all. And Nokia´s Asha phones are profitable, that is one really important thing to keep in mind, because almost 2/3 of the world´s population is still using a featurephone!

    As Nokia has said, with these Asha phones Nokia is targeting the next billion people to reach internet. There is still a huge opportunity out there which even Android can not target (because cheapest android right now is above $100 and Asha is only $60), not to mention iOS!

    Asha phones were and have been profitable.

    Actually, all the other 4 Nokia´s business divisions (Navteq, NSN, intellectual property rights and feature phones) were profitable in 3Q12, except smartphone division. And the total EPS was -0.07 euro per share, while the consensus was -0.11 euro per share. In other words, Nokia has beaten expectations and estimations (and to be exact, this has already happened in the last two quarters, with beating consensus. Those are ones of the most important reasons why NOK stock has jumped from its lowest this much)! The news of the last two weeks are only part of the whole reason.

    And at this price, NOK is still undervalued!

    Morningstar´s analysis about Nokia:

    Best scenario (if WP8 phones go well): the stock price will go to about 7.70 euro per share.

    Worst scenario: no bankruptcy, because Nokia would be sold in parts before that.

    Estimated price for this: intellectual properties over 1 euro per share (Motorola´s patent portfolio was worth about $5.5 billion); other business parts (smartphones, featurephones, NSN) at least over 1.50 euro per share.

    And NAVTEQ´s price not included (Nokia bought NAVTEQ with 5.7 billion euro). All in all, even in this case, Nokia share price would be at least over 2.50 euro, excluded NAVTEQ! And Nokia´s net cash is now 3.6 billion euros.

    In other words, the sum of parts of Nokia and net cash are worth much more than its market cap now, which means NOK share is right now heavily undervalued.

  • Report this Comment On December 11, 2012, at 7:23 PM, KyleSpencerMF wrote:

    The deal of headquarter buildings, to be concluded later this month, is in line with aims to shed non-core activities. Nokia will rent the same buildings after selling them, so Nokia´s HQ is not moving any where. Nokia is getting 170 million euros from selling those buildings.

    In Europe, companies do this a lot, because the rent of those HQ buildings can be reduced from earnings every month before paying tax. In other words, this is a legal way to pay less tax.

    Nokia's burn rate is not $300 million a month, an error in calculation made by Bloomberg and subsequently re-circulated until it became fact.

    Nevertheless, it's one thing to make an error if the correction re-enforces your thesis; it's quite another if the error defines your thesis. If I'm guilty of understating Nokia's carrier coup, then Bloomberg is surely guilty of overstating the telecom companies woes. Bloomberg quoted Nokia's burn rate is $300 million a month, a mistake that was replicated all over the internet. (The actual figure is $290 million a quarter.) Whoops!

  • Report this Comment On December 11, 2012, at 7:24 PM, KyleSpencerMF wrote:

    The question is Apple is only growing in saturated developed countries and not in emerging countries where live most of the population in the world. that is the problem.

    A spokesperson lady of China Mobile said at Wall Street yesterday, that the deal problems with Apple are not technical, but they are business conditions.

    That means China Mobile won´t let Apple enjoy that high profit that Apple used to enjoy. And why should they?

    Think about this: Lumia 920T is with 32 GB storage, and it is barely 700 US dollars without contract. And iPhone with only 8 GB is already a lot more expensive than the 32 GB Lumia 920T!

  • Report this Comment On December 11, 2012, at 7:24 PM, KyleSpencerMF wrote:

    In addition, Lumia 920 has features like:

    Floating-lens PureView camera with optical image stabilization

    Wireless charging

    Super sensitive and bright screen that can be used with gloves or finger nails

    Premium GPS that can be used also without internet

    Augmented reality City Lens!

    Free music with no ads

    NFC

    Rich sound recording in vids

    Fastest screen on a smartphone!

    Wireless Purity Pro headphones

    Wireless speaker that can charge your phone wirelessly

    LTE!

  • Report this Comment On December 11, 2012, at 7:25 PM, KyleSpencerMF wrote:

    Two days ago, Bloomberg’s Adam Ewing wrote that Nokia (NOK) may have an advantage over Apple in Europe because the “Lumia” line of phones running Microsoft‘s (MSFT) Windows Phone 8 operating system works on two dozen different 4G networks using “long term evolution,” or LTE speeds, while the iPhone 5 only works on two networks. Ewing quoted some shoppers who said they went with a Nokia because LTE was a must in their smartphone purchase.

    Strategy Analytics analyst Neil Mawston, who thinks Nokia will sell 5 million Lumia devices this quarter, said, “There is clearly strong demand among European consumers for 4G phones.”

  • Report this Comment On December 11, 2012, at 7:25 PM, KyleSpencerMF wrote:

    Actually, beside China Mobile, China Unicom is also selling Lumia 920 (the version like in Hong Kong).

    That means 2 out of the 3 biggest carriers in China are selling Nokia´s flagship phone!

    The world´s second largest carrier Vodafone´s chief Vittorio Colao said two days ago that Nokia is back on top with innovations. He mentioned especially Nokia´s camera technology and maps combined with augmented reality: PureView camera with optical image stabilization and Augmented reality City Lens.

    By the way, Verizon is Vodafone´s affiliated or branch company.

    The world´s biggest carrier China Mobile (with about 700 million subscribers) starts to sell Lumia 920T before year end. Nokia and China Mobile had co-launch party in Guangzhou China two days ago.

    Lumia 920T´s processor is said to be the fastest in a smartphone in the world.

    The chief of China Mobile said Nokia and China Mobile have worked together since the 80´s. China Mobile has about 700 million subscribers, and in average, one subscriber buys or changes a new phone every 23 month. That means China Mobile sells about 350 million phones per year.

    Nokia also launched Lumia 620. It is the most affordable WP8 phone up to date, and it will hit the markets early 2013.

    Lumia 505 WP 7.8 phone leaked in Mexico, it is Mexico exclusive.

  • Report this Comment On December 11, 2012, at 7:26 PM, KyleSpencerMF wrote:

    Nokia, which has come down more than 90% from its highest, is really worth consideration.

    Feature phones Asha 205 and Asha 206 belong to Nokia´s "next billion people to reach internet" strategy. This is a big chance. There are still many many people out there using feature phones, especially in developing countries.

    In these phones, there are Facebook, Twitter etc, and also 40 most popular games in the world for free. All packed in a $60 phone without any contract. Therefore, I think it is quite hard for other manufacturers to compete featurephones with Nokia.

    And the featurephone division in Nokia has been profitable, because of this Asha family. Therefore, Nokia´s 3.6 billion euros net cash, plus NSN, Navteq, patent portfolio and featurephones (all these 4 divisions have been profitable) are giving enough time for Lumia phones to take off (pushing them with huge marketings, discounts and campaigns). And Nokia´s EPS was -0.07 euro any more last quarter, when Lumias were sold 2.9 million units. And now, even Street estimation is above 5 million units. Kantar just reported WP phones have reached 11.7% in Italy. The WP phones most sold there are Lumia 610 and Lumia 800.

    Yahoo-China reported last week that Lumia 920 alone was ordered from Nokia up to date 2.5 million units. And Lumia 920 still sells out

    in most of the countries launched. Lumia 920 and 820 also support Arabic now, which meas WP8 phones will arrive to more markets.

    In addition, China Mobile (the world´s biggest carrier with about 700 million subscribers) is selling Lumia 920T soon, starting December!

    Lumia 920 has repeatedly sold out in many countries, such as: Italy, Germany, Australia, US, UAE and so on. A few days ago, this also happened in France, Sweden and England.

  • Report this Comment On December 11, 2012, at 7:27 PM, KyleSpencerMF wrote:

    Nokia is to buy and hold it for long term or medium term

    Nokia´s current 3.6 billion euros net cash should be enough for Nokia´s transitional period before WP8 phones take off.

    Nokia is also getting more cash from convertible bonds and selling its headquarters and other non-core assets.

    1. Nokia Siemens Networks is profitable and growing strongly (over 300 million euros profit in 3Q). Nokia and Siemens have decided to make it independent in these few years, therefore Nokia shareholders will have two companies´ shares in their hands, quite a good bonus.

    2. Navteq is profitable as well, and it is expanding its business as the world´s leading maps maker, with City Lens and Earthmine´s 3D mapping, Nokia will have a bigger slice of this pie yet.

    Right now, Navteq already has big clients such as Yahoo, Facebook, Amazon, Mozila, Oracle and almost countless car companies. Navteq just reported it is building navigators into 4 out of 5 cars (80%), with the new cars with navigator built in.

    3. Nokia´s patent portfolio earns about 500 million euros a year.

    Samsung is paying Apple for intellectual property rights; HTC is paying Apple; Vringo is suing ZTE; Nokia is suing HTC; Ericsson is suing Samsung; and APPLE IS PAYING NOKIA FOR INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS!

    Thus, it is only a matter of time when Nokia will sue Google and Samsung, if they still don´t agree to pay Nokia for its patents.

    4. Nokia´s featurephone division is doing well, because of Asha phones.

    5. The only 1 out of 5 Nokia´s business parts, which is not profitable, is smartphone business, but

    new Lumia generation looks promising.

    Lumia 920 has features like:

    Floating-lens PureView camera with optical image stabilization

    Wireless charging

    Super sensitive and bright screen that can be used with gloves or finger nails

    Premium GPS that can be used also without internet

    Augmented reality City Lens

    Free music with no ads

    NFC

    Rich sound recording in vids

    Fastest screen on a smartphone!

    Wireless Purity Pro headphones

    Wireless speaker that can charge your phone wirelessly

    LTE!

    Nokia also bought Scalado, the imaging technology firm in Sweden. Therefore, apart from NAVTEQ and NSN, Nokia is no doubt going big with PureView imaging technology. Some authors compare Nokia to Kodak, I think it is almost the opposite.

    Kodak was the old era and Nokia is starting the new evolution with smart-phone imaging, when consumers won´t have to carry another gadget (camera), for example during traveling.

    6. Considering now the total loss is about 17 million euros, it got much better from the 290 million (2 prior quarters each) loss.

    Nokia´s current 3.6 billion euros net cash should be enough for Nokia´s transitional period before WP8 phones take off.

    Nokia is also getting more cash from convertible bonds and selling its headquarters and other non-core assets.

    Morningstar´s analysis about Nokia:

    Best scenario (if WP8 phones go well): the stock price will go to about 7.70 euro per share.

    Worst scenario: no bankruptcy, because Nokia would be sold in parts before that.

    Estimated price for this: intellectual properties over 1 euro per share; other business parts (smartphones, featurephones, NSN) at least over 1.50 euro per share.

    And NAVTEQ´s price not included (Nokia bought NAVTEQ with 5.7 billion euro). All in all, even in this case, Nokia share price would be at least over 2.50 euro, excluded NAVTEQ. And Nokia´s net cash is now 3.6 billion euros.

    In other words, the sum of parts of Nokia and net cash are worth much more than its market cap now, which means NOK share is right now heavily undervalued.

    7. Nokia´s 3.75 billion shares outstanding,

    covers both Helsinki and New York.

    In other words, the short interest in NOK has been around 20% (Helsinki + New York) on a base of 3.75 billion shares.

    This is a significant figure to note, because for example, shares of Apple have been short sold only about 0.5%, Samsung over 2% and other telecom companies about 4% in general.

    Therefore, the real short covering of NOK is still to come yet.

    8. The only 1 out of 5 Nokia´s business parts, which is not profitable, is smartphone business, till now.

    And the EPS in last quarter (3Q12) was only -0.07 euro per share any more.

    A few days ago, Yahoo-China site said that it has the approximate number of Lumia 920 that has been ordered from Nokia up to date, and it was about 2.5 million units. And this number of Lumias 920 alone is already close to the total number of all the Lumia variants sold in last quarter, 3Q12, which was 2.9 million units only.

    Apart from Lumia 920 and 820 variants, Nokia has been pushing at the same time the sales of Lumias 510, 610, 710, 800 and 900 with campaigns and discounts.

    For example, Lumia 800 has gone back into top ten charts in many countries.

    Kantar reported that WP phones have reached 11.7% market share in Italy.

    The two hit phones are Lumia 610 and Lumia 800 there.

    ABG Sundal Collier said in their report that the Lumia 920 makes people interested in it and marks the comeback of the brand of Nokia.

    Liberum upgraded NOK from “hold” to “buy”.

    Nordea has upgraded from “buy” to “strong buy”.

    RBC kept their “Market Perform” but raised target.

    Northland Securities also raised price target

    Nokia launched Asha 205 and Asha 206.

    In these two new Asha phones, Nokia has a new innovation called “Slam” with which you can share photos and videos between the phones, and don´t have to even pair them up like NFC. Also Facebook etc and 40 most popular games in the world are in these phones, which make it hard for manufacturers to compete featurephones with Nokia.

    Nokia´s WP8 phones will be available in more markets, because they also support Arabic now.

    China Mobile (the world´s biggest carrier with about 700 million subscribers) has also confirmed Lumia 920T arriving December!

  • Report this Comment On December 11, 2012, at 7:27 PM, KyleSpencerMF wrote:

    One way or another, this quarter is no doubt going be a lot better than last quarter in smartphones.

    All Lumias were sold only 2.9 million units last quarter.

    Yahoo-China reported last week that Lumia 920 alone was ordered from Nokia up to date 2.5 million units. And Lumia 920 still sells out

    in most of the countries launched. Lumia 920 and 820 also support Arabic now, which meas WP8 phones will arrive to more markets.

    In addition, China Mobile (the world´s biggest carrier with about 660 million subscribers) is selling Lumia 920T soon, starting December!

    The only 1 out of 5 Nokia´s business parts, which is not profitable, is smartphone business, till now. And the EPS in last quarter (3Q12) was only -0.07 euro per share any more.

    Nokia´s current 3.6 billion euros net cash should be enough for Nokia´s transitional period before WP8 phones take off.

    Nokia is also getting more cash from convertible bonds and selling its headquarters and other non-core assets.

    Morningstar´s estimated price for the whole Nokia:

    Intellectual properties over 1 euro per share; other business parts (smartphones, featurephones, NSN) at least over 1.50 euro per share. And NAVTEQ´s price not included (Nokia bought NAVTEQ with 5.7 billion euro). All in all, even in this case, Nokia share price would be at least over 2.50 euro, excluded NAVTEQ! And Nokia´s net cash is now 3.6 billion euros.

    In other words, the sum of parts of Nokia and net cash are worth much more than its market cap now, which means NOK share is right now heavily undervalued!

  • Report this Comment On December 11, 2012, at 7:28 PM, KyleSpencerMF wrote:

    Nokia´s high short ratio makes it a good candidate for a short squeeze.

    The total short positions are around 20%!

    Here are short sellers of NOK in Helsinki:

    Viking Global Investors 2,33%

    Blue Ridge Capital 1,40%

    Maverick Capital 1,46%

    TPG -Axon Capital 0,50%

    Lone Pine Capital 0,64%

    D. E. Shaw & Co. 0,64%

    Discovery Capital Management 0,53%

    Fest N.V. 2,97%

    Coatue Offshore Master Fund 0,80%

    Note: investors with below 0.5% sort positions not listed.

    Plus the short interest in NYSE has been around 8%.

    Nokia´s total share number (approximately 3.75 billion shares) covers both New York and Helsinki.

  • Report this Comment On December 11, 2012, at 7:28 PM, KyleSpencerMF wrote:

    While many stores such as Amazon (AMZN) and Best Buy (BBY) seem to be out of Lumia 920s, and Nokia is having trouble with supplying sample phones to journalists for them to review and write about, the company keeps its silence about the issue. When companies remain silent, speculationsgets going. When Nokia launched Lumia 900, it was initially launched in only a few select countries. On the other hand, Lumia 920 was launched in more than 20 countries simultaneously, and it is possible for many stores to have thin supplies of the phone in the first place.

    Danske Bank Markets’s Ilkka Rauvola mentioned that his channel checks indicated some component supply issues. However, he raised his estimate of the number of Windows 8 based Nokia devices to be sold from 23 million to 36 million for 2013. Mr. Rauvola also changed his rating on Nokia from Sell to Buy, suggesting a price target around $3.80. Deutsche Bank’s Kai Korschelt and Johannes Schaller also agreed that Nokia was experiencing supply issues and they identified the supply issues as the main culprit for the stock issues. Unlike Mr. Rauvola, Mr. Koschelt and Mr. Schaller don’t seem to believe that there is a high demand for the new line of Lumia phones. In fact, Deutsche Bank’s analysts don’t even think the company can sell as many as 30 million Lumia phones in 2013, and their estimated number sits around 23 million. Another industry analyst, Tero Kuittinen, suggested that Nokia probably sent most of its supplies to Europe instead of North America, because the company’s products usually see much stronger demand in Europe than North America. In that case, the shortages in countries like Germany, Italy and France must be due to strong demand while the shortages in the US must be due to low supply.

    If the issue is based on low supplies alone, this is a big mess from Nokia’s management. Having short supplies of this Lumia 920 would be a big mess because Nokia’s very existence relies on this phone at the moment. Why would a company put all its eggs in one basket and still not have enough eggs to feed itself? I don’t think Nokia’s management would make such a big mistake. Yes, Nokia’s management isn’t the best when it comes to marketing, but the company is pretty good when it comes to building and distributing phones. That is unless there is a serious problem in the supply chain where Nokia doesn’t have much control.

    Michael Walkley at Canaccord Genuity performed his own channel-checks in the USA, and he found out that while there are some supply issues with the phone, the demand for the phone has also been pretty strong. Mr. Walkley’s channel checks indicated that Lumia 920 was the best selling Windows Phone and third best selling phone overall at AT&T stores. This is pretty encouraging for investors of Nokia.

    Amazon currently sells Lumia 920s for $69 when one agrees to sign a 2-year contract with AT&T. In the phone’s page, the review of the users is overwhelmingly positive. The phone’s average score is 4.7 out of 5.0, which is the highest average score I’ve ever seen in Amazon for a phone. Prior to Lumia 920′s arrival, the users assigned an average score of 4.6 for Lumia 900. In comparison, Apple’s iPhone 5′s average score is 3.7 and Samsung’s Galaxy s3′s average score is 3.9 at the moment.

    Of course, for the time being, one shouldn’t expect Nokia to sell its Lumia 920 in numbers similar to Samsung’s Galaxy S3 or Apple’s iPhone 5. Those phones will sell more copies in a quarter than Lumia 920 will sell in a year, but this is not all bad. Nokia’s current market value is about $15 billion whereas Apple’s market value is over $500 billion. Basically, Nokia can sell way fewer copies of its flagship phone than Apple, and this can still be bullish for the company. J. S.

  • Report this Comment On December 11, 2012, at 7:29 PM, KyleSpencerMF wrote:

    Nokia Is a Wide-Ranging Company and The Stock is With Hidden Value Right Now

    Nokia does not only make phones.

    Nokia´s feature-phone division is doing well, because of Asha phones.

    Nokia has not lost about 1 billion dollars a quarter like the media says, because Nokia has 5 business parts and 4 of them are profitable. Therefore, the exact number is much much smaller.

    Nokia´s loss is only 17 million euros any more (compared to Reuters´s consensus 277 million and Nokia´s last two previous quarters about 290 million each), this was much better.

    Nokia Siemens Networks is doing very strongly (over 300 million euros profit in 3Q. More business to come in the future: 3G in developing countries, 4G in developed and emerging countries)

    NAVTEQ was also profitable, NAVTEQ´s number might be better in 4Q, because of the deals with Amazon, Yahoo, Oracle and many car-companies.

    Nokia´s patent portfolio earns about 500 million euros a year, and the number is still increasing.

    Nokia has cut expenses (which saves about 1 billion euros a year) and in the future Nokia does not have to spend so much in R&D either, because it has teamed up with Microsoft.

    Nokia´s WP 8 devices will hit more markets, for example the Middle-East countries (Lumia phones have not been in these countries yet till now).

    New Lumia generation looks promising.

    For example Lumia 920 has features, such as:

    Floating-lens PureView camera with optical image stabilization

    Wireless charging

    Super sensitive and bright screen that can be used with gloves or finger nails

    Premium GPS that can be used also offline

    Augmented reality City Lens

    Free music with no advertisements

    NFC

    Lumia 920 does not only have a great low-light camera, but also has exceptional audio recording quality due to the 3 HAAC Rich-recording microphones.

    Right now, there is no way to compare Nokia to Apple among most smart phone consumers, but there is hope in the future.

    For example, Nokia just signed the contract with China Mobile (who has about 660 million subscribers, which is about 70% of all subscribers in this world´s biggest nation), and even though iPhone is very popular in the US and Europe, Windows Phone OS already surpasses iOS in the world´s biggest countries beside China, such as Brasil, India and Russia. Even though in these countries more low price point phones are sold, but these are the most important emerging giants in the world where Nokia´s position and brand are still quite strong. And it may be sooner than we think when more people in these countries are able to afford high end smart phones.

    Nokia has not lost about 1 billion dollars a quarter as the media says, because its other parts of business are profitable (while 1Q´s and 2Q´s total loss 290 million each, 3Q´s total loss only 17 million euros any more). Therefore, 3.6 billion euros net cash should be enough for Nokia´s transition period before WP8 phones take off. There is still enough room for a third ecosystem in this world, beside emerging markets Europe has adopted WP phones in a very encouraging way (for example Italy has already over 10% market share for WP phones, considering the Lumia debut has not been a year yet, since last November only. WP OS has already grown a lot faster compared to iOS and Android in their first quarters). Lumias were sold 9,9 million units under a year. The number is small compared to Iphones and Androids sold today, but it is not a bad start. It is more fair to compare the numbers among the 3 in their first year.

    Now when the DOWS and S&P have almost hit all time highs, investors start to think more about cheap and potential value stocks. NOK is now only about 0.8x book value, and usually NYSE stocks are on an average about 2x book value (Apple about 6x book value). Therefore, I think NOK is cheap enough for its values. Another reason is NOK has been already shorted massively about 19% of its total shares.

    Apart from Vertu and so on, Nokia still can sell its patents, since it still has about 30 000 patents in its own hands (in case Nokia needs more cash).

    If the stock price still goes cheaper and cheaper, one day some rival would bid for Nokia, just for its patents ( Motorola was acquired by Google with 12 billion dollars, this is good to remind people who underestimate intellectual properties´ value).

    Microsoft will bid for Nokia with higher premium if some company really bids for Nokia, because Nokia is in so close partnership with Microsoft that this also includes business strategies, business secrets and so on. Therefore, Microsoft won´t let any company acquire Nokia than itself. When it comes to Microsoft, it is still the net cash king in the world, after all its debts excluded, it still has a huge net cash about 50 billion dollars.

    About Nokia´s buy out: Motorola´s patents were worth about 5.5 billion, if some company bids for Nokia´s patents and Microsoft still does not acquire Nokia, Nokia will be sold in parts. Nokia has 5 business parts, therefore patent portfolio is only 1 out of 5. Now, you can count yourself how much are Nokia Siemens Networks, NAVTEQ, and feature-phone division worth.

    I know US is very important market, because Wall Street and US consumer trend give directions to market momentum around the world, still you can not neglect the power of BRIC and MIST these days.

    You can calculate yourself how many people living in these 8 BRIC- and MIST-countries. In these countries, in Brazil, Russia, India, China, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey, Nokia´s position and brand are still quite strong (except South-Korea, but you know it is Samsung´s home-country and the smallest country among those important 8 anyway).

    Morningstar´s analysis about Nokia:

    Best scenario (if WP8 phones go well): the stock price will go to about 7.70 euro per share.

    Worst scenario: no bankruptcy, because Nokia would be sold in parts before that.

    Estimated price for this: intellectual properties over 1 euro per share; other business parts (smartphones, featurephones, NSN) at least over 1.50 euro per share.

    And NAVTEQ´s price not included (Nokia bought NAVTEQ with 5.7 billion euro). All in all, even in this case, Nokia share price would be at least over 2.50 euro, excluded NAVTEQ. And Nokia´s net cash is now 3.6 billion euros.

    In other words, the sum of parts of Nokia and net cash are worth much more than its market cap now, which means NOK share is right now heavily undervalued.

    Nokia also announced it is hiring more employees to work in Chicago (where NAVTEQ is). Who says Nokia is going bankrupt? Think twice before saying that!

    Nokia also bought Scalado, the imaging technology firm in Sweden. Therefore, apart from NAVTEQ and NSN, Nokia is no doubt going big with PureView imaging technology. Some authors compare Nokia to Eastman-Kodak, I think it is almost the opposite.

    Eastman-Kodak was the old era and Nokia is starting the new evolution with smart-phone imaging, when consumers won´t have to carry another gadget (camera) during traveling.

    One of the reasons why Nokia is one of the most defensive stocks right now during bear markets is that Nokia has been already shorted massively about 19% of its total shares (while Apple only about 0.5%, Samsung over 2%, and other telecom companies about 4% in general).

    By the way, NAVTEQ just reported it is making navigators into 4 out of 5 cars (80%).

    And I hope Nokia will license City Lens to tablet makers like Amazon, Asus, Acer etc (at the same time it can turn Google maps users into using Nokia´s advanced mapping platform) soon.

    When also Nokia´s Devices & Services division is profitable as well, will you ever have a chance to buy NOK stock this cheap again? The answer might be: NEVER.

    Another aspect is, when now NOK has been already shorted massively about 19% of its total shares, bears could not go any further, because the share number that is available for borrowing/renting has already hit record high.

    If bears still dare to sell, there are plenty of happy buyers out there, for example Switzerland´s central bank has announced it had bought more NOK shares and has become the 5th biggest shareholder in Nokia.

    Considering now the total loss is about 17 million euros, it got much better from the 290 million (2 prior quarters each) loss.

    3.6 billion euros net cash should be enough for Nokia´s transitional period before WP8 phones take off.

    Nokia is also getting more cash from convertible bonds and selling its HQ and other non-core assets.

    Nokia is a big chance and good bargain at about 4 dollars, because Nokia Siemens Networks has grown so strongly and profitable that Nokia and Siemens have decided to make it independent in these couple of years. That means Nokia shareholders will have two companies´ shares in their hands.This is a bonus.

    The conclusion is Nokia is for long-term and medium-term investing not for short term. Just think about this, even when Apple and Google reach 1000 dollars, that is not even doubling, but in the long term Nokia has the opportunity to triple or even more.

  • Report this Comment On December 11, 2012, at 7:30 PM, KyleSpencerMF wrote:

    Nokia Lumia 920 And Nokia Lumia 820 Available In Singapore and Malaysia From December 8th.

    Nokia is also selling the following accessories in Singapore:

    JBL PowerUp Wireless Charging Speaker for Nokia

    JBL PlayUp Portable Wireless Speaker for Nokia

    Nokia Purity Pro Wireless Stereo Headset by Monster

    Netherlands, Device Availability From Jan 2013.

    Microsoft announced 40 million Windows 8 licenses sold in 30 days.

    Swedish online store calls demand for the Nokia Lumia 920 “absolutely huge”, causes a backlog twice as big as that for the Samsung Galaxy S 3.

    Nokia Lumia 920 “Extremely Popular” At Walmart.

    Walmart is running a great offer for smartphones in their online store. They are offering a free $100 Walmart gift card with every smartphone purchase. You can see the list of eligible devices here. Nokia Lumia 920 is listed there in all colors and it is available for just $69.99 with free gift card.

    Hot deal in UK offers Pay as You Go Nokia Lumia 920 on EE for only £399, locked to EE/ Orange.

    The deal is in store and not online.

    2014 Ford Fiesta adds MyFord Touch with Improved Microsoft Sync Voice Recognition, Navigation and Phone Pairing.

    Nokia Lumia 920 is now available in Sweden from online retailer Phone House. The device is available in all colors and is expected to be delivered on November 29th. You can buy the device on contract from all the major carriers in Sweden such as Three, Telia, Tele2, Telenor and also Halebop. If you want an unlocked device with no contract, you can get it for 5790 svenska kronor(670 Euros).

    Finnish Carrie: Demand for Nokia Lumia 920 is the highest for any Nokia phone in the last 10 years.

    DNA Store’s Managing Director Sami Aavikko have told a local magazine in an interview that the demand for Nokia Lumia 920 in its stores were highest for any Nokia model released in the past 10 years. He also revealed that they are selling out of the devices as they receive.

    The issue is not just due to short supply, with Sami saying quantities delivered were similar as for the iPhone 5, but that shortages was due to true demand.

    Google Trends shows interest in the Nokia Lumia 920 exceeds NL 800,900 peaks, still growing.

    Verkkokauppa sent a Lumia 920 into space attached to a balloon. The Windows Phone managed to achieve a height of 30km, spending more than 27 minutes in sub-zero temperatures. And it survived well after landing back to the earth.

    It is now called “space version” Lumia 920.

    Nokia Lumia 920 takes on a DSLR with night photography. Keng Chang, took the issue to task and compared his Canon 1DX DSLR to the Lumia 920. The results do speak highly of the Lumia 920′s low light performance.

    Lumia 920 available at Telstra stores in Australia, but sold out.

    The 920 on Rogers are not SIM unlocked though you could pay the Canadian carrier $50 to do so (assuming you bought it under contract).

    Microsoft in talks with landlords – Set to push Microsoft Stores to Europe in 2013.

    Amazing concert capturings with the Nokia Lumia 920 on Youtube.

    Lumia 510 available now in Philippines after India.

    Press Release: Facebook and Nokia partner to increase connections on-the-go; The new Nokia Asha 205, 206. “Slam” feature showed in Engadget videos.

    Microsoft and Nokia have not intended to beat Samsung and Apple.

    For them, the third horse in the race is quite enough. Why?

    Because Nokia and Microsoft have other business divisions than just smartphones!

    Nokia has NSN, Navteq, feature phones and patent portfolio.

    And these 4 other parts of its business have been profitable.

    Feature phones Asha 205 and Asha 206 belong to Nokia´s “next billion people to reach internet” strategy. This is a big chance. There are still many many people out there using feature phones, especially in developing countries.

    In these phones, there are Facebook, Twitter etc, and also 40 most popular games in the world for free. All packed in a $60 phone without any contract. Therefore, I think it is quite hard for other manufacturers to compete featurephones with Nokia.

    And the featurephone division in Nokia has been profitable, because of this Asha family. Therefore, Nokia´s 3.6 billion euros net cash, plus NSN, Navteq, patent portfolio and featurephones (all these 4 divisions have been profitable) are giving enough time for Lumia phones to take off (pushing them with huge marketings, discounts and campaigns). And Nokia´s EPS was -0.07 euro any more last quarter, when Lumias were sold 2.9 million units. And now, even Street estimation is above 5 million units. Kantar just reported WP phones have reached 11.7% in Italy. The WP phones most sold there are Lumia 610 and Lumia 800.

    Yahoo-China reported last week that Lumia 920 alone was ordered from Nokia up to date 2.5 million units. And Lumia 920 still sells out

    in most of the countries launched. Lumia 920 and 820 also support Arabic now, which meas WP8 phones will arrive to more markets.

    In addition, China Mobile (the world´s biggest carrier with about 660 million subscribers) is selling Lumia 920T soon, starting December!

    Lumia 920 has repeatedly sold out in many countries, such as:

    Italy, Germany, Australia, US, UAE and so on. Two days ago, this also happened in France, Sweden and England.

    Dutch Nokia Lumia 920 confirmed as pre-orders match or exceed that of the iPhone 5.

    Dutch retailers have confirmed that there is real excitement about the Nokia Lumia 920 coming to the Netherlands.

    Clove UK sells out of all Lumia 920 colours for the second time, even before shipments arrive.

    In Hong Kong, the first lot of Lumia 920 sold out so quickly, and many consumers were even willing to buy the phone from others who could get the phone during launch with higher price, up to over 800 US dollars (the phone was sold only over 600 US dollars in Hong Kong).

    Wireless Chargers for the Nokia Lumia 920 now showing up in Red Espresso coffee shops in Russia and in Beijing Airport´s VIP lounges.

  • Report this Comment On December 11, 2012, at 7:38 PM, KyleSpencerMF wrote:

    The analysts of Oppenheimer are very skeptical about Nokia's recent recovery. While Oppenheimer's analysts believe that Nokia will beat the estimates this quarter, they believe that the company will not do that well in the long term. The analysts believe that the company's new phones are seeing "decent demand" and the supplies are catching up to meet the demand. In addition, the analysts also see the low end Asha phones stealing market share from Android phones and they add that Nokia Siemens Network has upside. Even with all the encouraging analysis, the analysts at Oppenheimer still can't help but be bearish towards Nokia. They believe that Nokia's momentum might not be sustainable and that the new Nokia phones are seeing high demand mostly because of their cheap pricing.

    I personally don't agree with the analysts. In fact, the analysts at Oppenheimer can't seem to make their mind about Nokia. Back in February, they downgraded the company, followed by upgrading it in June. Now they are downgrading it again. I bet they will upgrade it once again when they realize that the company's momentum is here to stay for a while, rather than being a temporary thing. Oppenheimer's analysts seem to think that Nokia's momentum is partly due to a huge push by Microsoft to market the Windows 8 products. Even if this is true, I don't see Microsoft just dropping the push out of blue. Microsoft will continue to push these products for as long as necessary, because the company's future rests with these products. For some reason, the analysts at Oppenheimer believe that Microsoft will stop pushing Nokia's phones after the first quarter of 2013. I don't see a reason for that though.

    Furthermore, Bank of America's analysts also seem to believe that Nokia carries too much risk for it to be a good investment. Bank of America's analysts believe that too much hope is baked in Nokia's share price at the moment. The analysts state that the company may or may not show improvement in the next couple quarters, but most of the improvements are already priced in by investors. This is something I have a lot of trouble accepting. Nokia's share price fell from $10 all the way to $1.69 in the last 2 years. The fall was mostly due to fears that Nokia would burn through its cash reserves and go out of business within a matter of quarters. Obviously this didn't happen and the cash bleed came to a significant slowdown. In fact, two out of Nokia's 3 business units had positive margins in the last quarter. Now that the company's imminent bankruptcy isn't an issue anymore, why should the shares trade for near the book values? In the technology sector, companies typically trade near their book values only if there are serious fears that they will go out of business and face liquidation soon. Investors don't feel that Nokia is in this position anymore, even though they thought it was in that position as recently as last summer. How can Bank of America's analysts think that Nokia's share price has too much hope baked into it when the company lost 90% of its share value since 2008? I would say too much fear is baked in Nokia's share price rather than saying too much hope is baked in the price.

    Keep in mind that the same analysts of Bank of America also called Nokia's new deal with China Mobile as "unimpressive." The analysts pointed out that Nokia used to have a similar deal for its Symbian phones which didn't help it in China. Therefore, this deal should also generate similar results. This is weak argument at best. That's like saying "Ford didn't sell a lot of cars in 2005 so it won't be able to sell a lot of cars in 2012 either." In the technology sector, things move too fast and it is incredibly difficult to see what kind of reaction a new product will elicit based on the past products of the same company. The fact of the matter is Nokia's Windows 8 phones are gaining market share as its Symbian phones are losing market share. These two phones can't be comparable. At the end of the day, Symbian phones and Windows 8 phones are completely different products.

    On average, analysts expect Nokia to report a loss of 5 cents per share this quarter. The estimates range from a loss of 13 cents per share and a profit of 3 cents per share. I personally believe that Nokia will come pretty close to breaking even in this quarter excluding the one-time items such as asset sales and restructuring charges. Because Nokia has been quiet about how the phone sales are going, it is very difficult to pinpoint the number of Windows 8 devices that will have been sold by the end of the quarter. The predictions typically range from 4 million items to 10 million items which is a very wide range. We will have to wait and see, but keep in mind that Nokia beat analyst estimates in the last 2 quarters. JS

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