Why Vical Will Keep Plunging

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Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, biopharmaceutical company Vical (Nasdaq: VICL  ) has received a distressing two-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Vical and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Vical facts


Headquarters (founded)

San Diego, Calif. (1987)

Market Cap

$264.4 million



Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$17.1 million


CEO Vijay Samant (since 1990)
CFO Jill Broadfoot (since 2004)

Return on Equity
(average, past 3 years)



$86.9 million / $0


GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK  )

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 8% of the 178 members who have rated Vical believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward.

Earlier this week, one of those Fools, All-Star zzlangerhans, succinctly summed up the bear case for our community:

Vical has concluded yet again that patients in the phase III trial of Allovectin-7 are living longer than expected, resulting in another lengthy delay before topline data will be released. Naturally, Vical bulls see this as a positive, concluding that it is an indicator that patients are living longer in the treatment arm. That sounds like an old story that I heard earlier this year with [Keryx Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: KERX  ) ] and perifosine, with an unfortunate outcome for the bulls. I believe I've seen similar outcomes from prolonged phase III trials previously, but I can't remember one where the bull thesis turned out to be correct.

I've seen many phase III clinical trials fail against melanoma. It's a bad cancer to bet against and I won't start with Vical.

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Read/Post Comments (1) | Recommend This Article (2)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On December 27, 2012, at 1:46 PM, fatherknowsbest wrote:

    This is an article? If this is the bears best case They are in deep trouble. We could use a little more depth here. How about a risk reward summary. You know if the trial fails the stock will go to X and if it succeeds it will go to Y. Then maybe some odds on the chances of the trials Success/ Failure. This is Article is just an opinion, I would treat it as such.

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