3 Predictions for Next Week

I went out on a limb last week, and now it's time to see how that decision played out.

  • I predicted that Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU  ) would close higher on the week. It certainly didn't seem that things would play out that way when senior members of China's National People's Congress moved to limit Internet access for anonymous users, but Baidu began to bounce back after introducing a voice-based mobile app. The stock ultimately moved 0.3% higher to buck the trend of the market selling. I was right.
  • I predicted that the tech-heavy Nasdaq would outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average. (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) . This has been a tricky call lately, and it wasn't going to pan out in a holiday-abridged week that found stocks getting hammered. The Nasdaq closed 2% lower. The Dow, on the other hand, clocked in with a loss of 1.9% on the week. It was close, but not close enough. I was wrong.
  • My final call was for Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI  ) to close lower on the week. I'm a long-term bull on the satellite-radio provider, but I thought the tax rate climate that should result in higher rates come 2013 may prompt some investors with big paper gains to cash out and lock in attractive tax rates on long-term capital gains. The stock surrendered 1.7% of its value on the week. I was right.

Two out of three? I can do better than that. Let me once again whip out my trusty, dusty, and occasionally accurate crystal ball to make three calls that may play out over the next few trading days.

1. Apple will close out the week higher
It's been a rough run for Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) investors lately. The fallen darling is now trading 28% below the all-time high it set just three months ago.

It's easy to bash what continues to be the world's most valuable tech company. The arrogance of iOS in light of the open-source Android is forcing many smartphone and tablet buyers to embrace cheaper Android solutions, especially in overseas markets, where unsubsidized Apple devices cost substantially more than perfectly acceptable Android alternatives.

However, the sell-off is overdone. Apple isn't going away, and my thesis is that buyers will begin buying back in come 2013. The new trading year starts on Wednesday, so I may as well call for a bounce that will find Apple's stock closing higher on the week.

2.The Nasdaq Composite will beat the Dow this week
Betting on tech over stodgy blue chips was a steady winning bet for me earlier this year. This has been a losing bet lately, but I still think technology is the best sector to be invested in these days.

I'm going to stick with this pick. Most of the names in the composite are just too cheap at this point. The market is ripe for tech-stacked secondary stocks to continue to outpace the 30 megacaps that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

3. AngioDynamics will beat Wall Street's earnings estimates
Some stocks are just flat-out better than others.

AngioDynamics (NASDAQ: ANGO  ) distributes minimally invasive medical devices used by doctors and surgeons. Another thing it does is make analysts look like perpetual underachievers. If analysts say the company earned $0.09 a share in its latest quarter, I'll whip out a "greater than" sign. History's on my side!

One of my best tricks to beating the market is finding stocks that perpetually land ahead of the prognosticators. Let's go over the past year of earnings reports.

Quarter

EPS Estimate

EPS

Surprise

Q2 2012

$0.12

$0.13

8%

Q3 2012

$0.08

$0.09

13%

Q4 2012

$0.09

$0.11

22%

Q1 2013

$0.09

$0.10

11%

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Things can change, of course. Demand for the company's medical products for vascular access, surgery, peripheral vascular disease, and oncology can slip. Is anyone really sure if there will be more or less money to spend on health care in the future?

However, AngioDynamics rarely disappoints. You actually have to go all the way back to the summer of 2009 to find the last time the company has fallen short on the bottom line. Sure, in three of the past four quarters the company beat analyst estimates by a mere $0.01 a share. Are you still ready to bet against the trend of positive surprises?

Everything seems to be falling into place for another market-thumping quarter on the bottom line.

Three for the road
Well, there are three predictions right there. Let's see how I fare this week.

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Comments from our Foolish Readers

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  • Report this Comment On December 30, 2012, at 3:47 PM, Ostrowsr wrote:

    Thanks for the great analysis. BUT the fact that Apple has been manipulated lower by false media reports and tricks like margin requirement changes really shows how those with money have and will make more money. And it's all legal. Imagine that young person using margin on a sure thing like Apple and gets a margin call and is forced to sell his shares. And then the congress refuses a relatively minor tax rate change that gives some of this stolen, yes stolen, money back to the middle class.

  • Report this Comment On December 30, 2012, at 9:31 PM, henrietta9 wrote:

    Rick A you should be looking for another job

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