Can This Massive Deal Keep Nokia's Recent Run Going?

Nokia  (NYSE: NOK  ) , often considered an underdog in the smartphone space, has now made a potentially game-changing deal with China Mobile (NYSE: CHL  ) to sell its flagship smartphone, the Lumia 920, on China Mobile's network. Although China Mobile is by far the largest telecom provider in the world, it won't necessarily provide Nokia with the largest high-end market, which is what the Lumia 920 addresses. But because the main high-end smartphone competitor, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) , isn't on China Mobile, Nokia doesn't have much competition in that area. Motley Fool tech and telecom analyst Andrew Tonner thinks the tear Nokia stock is on at the moment still has room to continue.

Nokia's been struggling in a world of Apple and Android smartphone dominance. However, the company has banked its future on its next generation of Windows smartphones. Motley Fool analyst Charly Travers has created a new premium report that digs into both the opportunities and risks facing Nokia to help investors decide if the company is a buy or sell. To get started, simply click here now.

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  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 5:27 AM, st0815 wrote:

    What about Android, is the S3 not available on China Mobile, either?

    WP8 market share is smaller even than Bada - Samsung's second mobile OS. The mere absence of Apple wouldn't give Nokia such a big break. They are still tied to an OS with miniscule market share.

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:02 AM, MichelleRyan wrote:

    RIM is paying royalty to Nokia continuously apart from the first one-time payment.

    Microsoft stores are spreading also into Europe, Microsoft stores will sell all versions and color variants of Lumia phones.

    Arabian countries are starting to get their Lumia phones

    Even European countries have not all got the Lumia 920 yet, for example, today the Netherlands said they will get the phone starting this month.

    In China, beside China Mobile and China Unicom, online retailers 360buy and 51buy are selling Lumia 920 and Lumia 920T.

    China Mobile and China Unicom are selling the phone from 0 or 1 yuan only. This will result into a significant number of 2-year or 3-year contract users for Nokia in China.

    In the case of Nokia, there are 3 important winning factors in China in Nokia phones compared to Samsung:

    1. endless free music with no ads

    2. offline GPS.

    3. augmented reality City Lens with location information

    In developing and emerging countries where carriers don´t offer contracts starting from free yet, customers will choose the Lumia 620. That phone is affordable and it has almost all the Nokia exclusive features. This phone will be already available in many countries starting January.

    Additionally, Lumia 920 is also heading to India and Latin America, where Nokia brand is still quite strong, and those are also ones of the biggest countries in the world!

    Nokia is also planning a lot of interesting things with Verizon!

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:04 AM, BelgianWaffle wrote:

    WP market share is expanding pretty quickly, definitely in Europe you can see a big increase. In Italy they have around 10%, 20% in Finland.

    Windows 8 is only released for 2 months, the influence it will has on the WP market share is small at the moment, but it won't stay that way. People are creatures of habit, once Windows 8 becomes a habit, so will WP8 with the same tile-interface.

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:05 AM, MichelleRyan wrote:

    Nokia´s Asha phones are competing with low-price androids. Asha phones have many smartphone features and thousands of Nokia´s most popular apps right now and also Facebook and Twitter etc, and even 40 most popular games in the world for free in these phones. Asha phones are only about $60 without any contract, while cheapest android is still about $100.

    Nokia is also saving money in R&D, because it has teamed up with Microsoft.

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:07 AM, MichelleRyan wrote:

    Nokia is likely launching a tablet, even some Nokia´s loyal fans around the world will buy some Nokia´s tablets, that is a good gain for Nokia.

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:09 AM, MichelleRyan wrote:

    Awards Won By Nokia Lumia 920

    The Top Smartphone of 2012, V3, UK

    The Best Mobile Phone of 2012, Readers Choice Award, Gizmodo, Australia.

    iF Award for Outstanding Design, International Forum Design, Germany

    Mobil Award for Best Smartphone Design, Mobile Magazine, Denmark

    Best Smartphones of 2012, The Next Web, USA

    Top Score Award, Mobil, Sweden

    The Best High End Smartphones for the Holidays, CNET, USA

    Best Productivity Phone, Best Camera Phone, Best Mapping Phone, Best Windows Phone, Runner up, Arstechnic, USA

    Top 25 Tech of 2012, Mashable, USA

    Top Smartphone of the Year, Mybroadband, South Africa

    Best AT&T Smartphones of 2012, BGR, USA

    At over $4, Nokia is a good bargain.

    Nokia has spent over $55 billion in R&D alone, now Nokia´s market cap is only about $15 billion. Not long ago, Nokia was still about $10.

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:11 AM, MichelleRyan wrote:

    If you want potential big upside for 2013, Nokia now is a stock to consider. The stock has come down more than 90%. Now, the stock is only about $4, and it used to be over $60.

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:13 AM, MichelleRyan wrote:

    Two days ago, Shanghai store received their second shipment of Lumia 920 phones. They had all 5 color variants, but the yellow variant sold out again in only 20 minutes.

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:17 AM, MichelleRyan wrote:

    Nokia has a brighter future than RIM

    1) BB10 is a bit late!

    2) RIM has been strong in enterprise business, but now RIM will face

    more than tough competition. For example, In China China Mobile sells the Nokia Lumia 920T for 4599 yuan with free wireless charging pad or other accessories, which means the phone costs only 4000 yuan. The phone is very much cheaper than iPhone 5 or Galaxy Note 2.

    In addition, the Lumia 920T has premium malware virus protection hardware built in.

    Therefore, will RIM´s highest end BB10 phone able to compete the price with this Lumia 920T? I really doubt that. And with a 2-year contract, China Mobile offers the Lumia 920T with only 1 yuan!

    3) RIM´s loyal fans will still support BB10 phones, but will that be enough?

    4) Beside Apple and Samsung, RIM will have to compete also with Nokia.

    Now, Nokia with WP8 is in quite a big step ahead of RIM with BB10.

    Nokia has low price point Asha phones and also high-end Lumia phones,

    so can RIM do the same?

    5) RIM will still need to use a lot of money in R&D and marketing in the future, while Nokia

    is saving money in R&D and marketing, because MS shares the expenses.

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:18 AM, MichelleRyan wrote:

    Nokia Lumia 620 Beats Samsung Galaxy S III In SunSpider And BrowserMark 2 Tests

    Lumia 620, the upcoming mid-range Windows Phone 8 device from Nokia performs better than Samsung Galaxy S III in two of the standard browser benchmarks. GSMArena posted the preview of the device and they compared the Sunspider and BrowserMark 2 benchmarks of Nokia Lumia 620 with other Lumia devices such as Lumia 920 and also Samsung Galaxy S III. Even though Lumia 620 will cost only half the price of Galaxy S III, it scored better in both the Sunspider and BrowserMark 2 benchmarks, which means even a very affordable phone

    Lumia 620 is a faster phone than Galaxy S III.

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:19 AM, MichelleRyan wrote:

    The biggest carriers in China are willing to push Nokia´s flagship phone, and for a good reason, because the 32 GB (+7 GB SkyDrive) Lumia 920 is a lot cheaper than iPhone 5 or Galaxy Note 2.

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:21 AM, MichelleRyan wrote:

    Because now RIM still has negative EPS, and

    Nokia´s EPS in last quarter was -0.07 euro per share any more, and if Nokia´s EPS breaks even this quarter or becomes positive, then the markets will no doubt choose Nokia as the certain third horse in the race. That will show a huge surge in the stock price, because for example short sellers will have to buy back.

    The reasons are quite simple, because when RIM still need to use money to launch BB10, it means WP8 is already making money.

    And during 1Q13 when RIM gets BB10 phones out, Nokia will have already a lot more to come at MWC. Additionally, that “a lot of interesting things with Virizon” that Stephen Elop mentioned, will already take place step by step.

    The conclusion is, Nokia and WP8 are in a significantly bigger step ahead of RIM and BB10.

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:21 AM, MichelleRyan wrote:

    Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN) has won two different network orders in quick succession from telecom giant China Mobile Ltd (CHL) and Telefonica S.A. (TEF). This successive order wining reflects the company’s ability to serve diverse network needs of different customers.

    Under the agreement, NSN will deploy China Mobile’s Serve atOnce Intelligence customer and business network analysis tool in the Guangdong region of China. The new analysis tool will provide information regarding customer usage and preference. It is also expected to allow the largest telecom carrier in the world to increase customer loyalty and add new revenue streams.

    In another agreement, NSN will upgrade the existing GSM and 3G network of O2 (Telefonica UK) with radio access network technology to provide LTE (Long Term Evolution) services across London and south east of England. The contract includes installation of NSN’s NetAct network management system that will allow consolidated configuration, monitoring and network optimization across the network.

    In the last two months, the company has won two network contracts from China Mobile and South Africa’s Vodacom.

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:21 AM, PeterC89 wrote:

    This Nokia/CHL marriage is as old as my staled bread. I guess work is slower than expected eh Tonner?

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:23 AM, MichelleRyan wrote:

    Nokia said they bought Smarterphone because of the company´s expertise, in order to develop Nokia´s feature phones which are going to be kind of half smartphones right now, e.g. the newest Asha 205 and Asha 206, in which there are features like Facebook, Twitter etc and internet access to thousands of Nokia´s most popular apps.

    Either Nokia has integrated Smarterphone into S40, we don´t know, but the fact is Nokia´s feature phones have become really smarter!

    Apart from the features I mentioned above in the new Asha phones,

    Nokia has already brought an app called Nearby (which is almost the same as Lumia´s City Lens) into Asha phone line!

    In addition to all these, Nokia has 40 most popular games of the world in these Asha phones for free. And Asha 205, 206 is only $60 without any contract at all. And Nokia´s Asha phones are profitable, that is one really important thing to keep in mind, because almost 2/3 of the world´s population is still using a featurephone!

    As Nokia has said, with these Asha phones Nokia is targeting the next billion people to reach internet. There is still a huge opportunity out there which even Android can not target (because cheapest android right now is above $100 and Asha is only $60), not to mention iOS!

    Asha phones were and have been profitable.

    Actually, all the other 4 Nokia´s business divisions (Navteq, NSN, intellectual property rights and feature phones) were profitable in 3Q12, except smartphone division. And the total EPS was -0.07 euro per share, while the consensus was -0.11 euro per share. In other words, Nokia has beaten expectations and estimations (and to be exact, this has already happened in the last two quarters, with beating consensus. Those are ones of the most important reasons why NOK stock has jumped from its lowest this much)! The news of the last two weeks are only part of the whole reason.

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:25 AM, MichelleRyan wrote:

    Conclusion is, Nokia is to buy and hold it for long term or medium term

    Nokia´s current 3.6 billion euros net cash should be enough for Nokia´s transitional period before WP8 phones take off.

    Nokia is also getting more cash from convertible bonds and selling its headquarters and other non-core assets.

    1. Nokia Siemens Networks is profitable and growing strongly (over 300 million euros profit in 3Q). Nokia and Siemens have decided to make it independent in these few years, therefore Nokia shareholders will have two companies´ shares in their hands, quite a good bonus.

    2. Navteq is profitable as well, and it is expanding its business as the world´s leading maps maker, with City Lens and Earthmine´s 3D mapping, Nokia will have a bigger slice of this pie yet.

    Right now, Navteq already has big clients such as Yahoo, Facebook, Amazon, Mozila, Oracle and almost countless car companies. Navteq just reported it is building navigators into 4 out of 5 cars (80%), with the new cars with navigator built in.

    3. Nokia´s patent portfolio earns about 500 million euros a year.

    Samsung is paying Apple for intellectual property rights; HTC is paying Apple; Vringo is suing ZTE; Nokia is suing HTC; Ericsson is suing Samsung; and APPLE IS PAYING NOKIA FOR INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS!

    Thus, it is only a matter of time when Nokia will sue Google and Samsung, if they still don´t agree to pay Nokia for its patents.

    4. Nokia´s featurephone division is doing well, because of Asha phones.

    5. The only 1 out of 5 Nokia´s business parts, which is not profitable, is smartphone business, but new Lumia generation looks promising.

    Lumia 920 has features like:

    Floating-lens PureView camera with optical image stabilization

    Wireless charging

    Super sensitive and bright screen that can be used with gloves or finger nails

    Premium GPS that can be used also without internet

    Augmented reality City Lens!

    Free music with no ads


    Rich sound recording in vids

    Fastest screen on a smartphone!

    Wireless Purity Pro headphones

    Wireless speaker that can charge your phone wirelessly


    Nokia also bought Scalado, the imaging technology firm in Sweden. Therefore, apart from NAVTEQ and NSN, Nokia is no doubt going big with PureView imaging technology. Some authors compare Nokia to Kodak, I think it is almost the opposite.

    Kodak was the old era and Nokia is starting the new evolution with smart-phone imaging, when consumers won´t have to carry another gadget (camera), for example during traveling.

    6. Considering now the total loss is about 17 million euros, it got much better from the 290 million (2 prior quarters each) loss.

    Nokia´s current 3.6 billion euros net cash should be enough for Nokia´s transitional period before WP8 phones take off.

    Nokia is also getting more cash from convertible bonds and selling its headquarters and other non-core assets.

    Morningstar´s analysis about Nokia:

    Estimated price: intellectual properties over 1 euro per share; other business parts (smartphones, featurephones, NSN) at least over 1.50 euro per share.

    And NAVTEQ´s price not included (Nokia bought NAVTEQ with 5.7 billion euro). All in all, even in this case, Nokia share price would be at least over 2.50 euro, excluded NAVTEQ! And Nokia´s net cash is now 3.6 billion euros.

    In other words, the sum of parts of Nokia and net cash are worth much more than its market cap now, which means NOK share is right now heavily undervalued.

    7. Nokia´s 3.75 billion shares outstanding,

    covers both Helsinki and New York.

    In other words, the short interest in NOK has been around 20% (Helsinki + New York) on a base of 3.75 billion shares.

    This is a significant figure to note, because for example, shares of Apple have been short sold only about 0.5%, Samsung over 2% and other telecom companies about 4% in general.

    Therefore, the real short covering of NOK is still to come yet.

    8. The only 1 out of 5 Nokia´s business parts, which is not profitable, is smartphone business, till now.

    And the EPS in last quarter (3Q12) was only -0.07 euro per share any more.

    A few days ago, Yahoo-China site said that it has the approximate number of Lumia 920 that has been ordered from Nokia up to date, and it was about 2.5 million units. And this number of Lumias 920 alone is already close to the total number of all the Lumia variants sold in last quarter, 3Q12, which was 2.9 million units only.

    Apart from Lumia 920 and 820 variants, Nokia has been pushing at the same time the sales of Lumias 510, 610, 710, 800 and 900 with campaigns and discounts.

    For example, Lumia 800 has gone back into top ten charts in many countries.

    Kantar reported that WP phones have reached 11.7% market share in Italy.

    The two hit phones are Lumia 610 and Lumia 800 there.

    ABG Sundal Collier said in their report that the Lumia 920 makes people interested in it and marks the comeback of the brand of Nokia.

    Liberum upgraded NOK from “hold” to “buy”.

    Nordea has upgraded from “buy” to “strong buy”.

    RBC kept their “Market Perform” but raised target.

    Northland Securities raised price target.

    Also UBS and Jyske Bank raised price target.

    Nokia launched Asha 205 and Asha 206.

    In these two new Asha phones, Nokia has a new innovation called “Slam” with which you can share photos and videos between the phones, and don´t have to even pair them up like NFC. Also Facebook etc and 40 most popular games in the world are in these phones, which make it hard for manufacturers to compete featurephones with Nokia.

    Nokia´s WP8 phones will be available in more markets, because they also support Arabic now.

    China Mobile (the world´s biggest carrier with about 700 million subscribers) has also confirmed Lumia 920T!

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:27 AM, MichelleRyan wrote:

    Bloomberg’s Adam Ewing wrote that Nokia (NOK) may have an advantage over Apple in Europe because the “Lumia” line of phones running Microsoft‘s (MSFT) Windows Phone 8 operating system works on two dozen different 4G networks using “long term evolution,” or LTE speeds, while the iPhone 5 only works on two networks. Ewing quoted some shoppers who said they went with a Nokia because LTE was a must in their smartphone purchase.

    Strategy Analytics analyst Neil Mawston, who thinks Nokia will sell 5 million Lumia devices this quarter, said, “There is clearly strong demand among European consumers for 4G phones.”

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:30 AM, MichelleRyan wrote:

    Nokia is a wide-ranging company. It does not just only make phones.

    It has network business (Nokia Siemens Networks).

    Navteq, even 3D mapping platform is coming soon after buying Earthmine; Nokia´s augmented reality City Lens is unique in Lumia phones.

    And Nokia is bringing almost the same app called “Nearby” to Asha phones.

    Nokia is also making GPS for many car companies.

    Nokia´s Asha phones are becoming half smartphones and they are with very competitive price, only about $60 without any contract.

    Nokia´s patent portfolio earns about 500 million euros a year.

    New Lumia generation is doing well, Lumia 920 is selling out almost everywhere.

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:30 AM, MichelleRyan wrote:

    Actually, beside China Mobile, China Unicom is also selling Lumia 920 (the version like in Hong Kong).

    That means 2 out of the 3 biggest carriers in China are selling Nokia´s flagship phone!

    The world´s second largest carrier Vodafone´s chief Vittorio Colao said a few days ago that Nokia is back on top with innovations. He mentioned especially Nokia´s camera technology and maps combined with augmented reality: PureView camera with optical image stabilization and Augmented reality City Lens.

    By the way, Verizon is Vodafone´s affiliated or branch company.

    The world´s biggest carrier China Mobile (with about 700 million subscribers) starts to sell Lumia 920T before the end of the year. Nokia and China Mobile had co-launch party in Guangzhou China a few days ago.

    Lumia 920T´s processor is said to be the fastest in a smartphone in the world.

    The chief of China Mobile said Nokia and China Mobile have worked together since the 80´s. China Mobile has about 700 million subscribers, and in average, one subscriber buys or changes a new phone every 23 month. That means China Mobile sells about 350 million phones per year.

    Nokia also launched Lumia 620. It is the most affordable WP8 phone up to date, and it will hit the markets early 2013.

    Lumia 505 WP 7.8 phone is being launched in Mexico.

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:32 AM, MichelleRyan wrote:

    Nokia is a very good candidate for a big short squeeze.

    Because the stock has been over sold.

    Nokia is the most short sold stock in both Helsinki and New York!

    NOK short interest:

    NYSE November 30


    Helsinki December 6

    10.7% (with investors over 0.5%, below 0.5% not listed)

    Nokia´s total share number (approximately 3.75 billion shares) covers both New York and Helsinki.

    That makes the sort interest in NOK around 20%!

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:39 AM, MichelleRyan wrote:

    Business men and women like the Lumia 920T in China, because of Office, good maps and location data City Lens and GPS, and good virus protection firmware built in the phone.

    The contract deals of the Lumia 920T at China Mobile have come out already for example in big cities like Shanghai and so on

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:46 AM, MichelleRyan wrote:
  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 9:54 AM, jtfool75 wrote:

    i have held the 920, its a great phone, 100 times better than the 920, i am not surprised it is selling well, i want one, but im with verizon, they dont have it, if they get it, im getting it, verizon if you can hear i want a yellow 920 ASAP

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 10:08 AM, MichelleRyan wrote:

    Verizon is possible getting their own flagship phone from Nokia soon.

    According to CEO Stephen Elop, Nokia is planning a lot of interesting things with Verizon!

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 3:12 PM, Same1234 wrote:

    Can This Massive Deal Keep Nokia's Recent Run Going?

    The answer is “YES.

    After China Mobile could not reach agreement with Apple in both iPhone5 incompatible with its home grown TD-SCDMA 3G network and Apple's business model, China Mobile finally obtained a full support of 3G high-end smartphones from the Finnish Telecom giant, Nokia. With a humble attitude towards China Mobile (Chinese Government), Nokia made an intelligent decision to cooperate with China Mobile, designing the Lumia 920T fits in with China Mobile's home grown TD-SCDMA 3G network. Luckily, Nokia put a giant step forward to compete with a high-end smartphone market share among Apple, Samsung in China with the help of China Mobile and China Union. Under the traditional Chinese culture of a close cooperation and relationship between two companies, you scratch my back and I scratch yours, without any shadow of doubt, China mobile will promote Lumia 920T such a good example as promoting a variety of provincial subsidized packages based on a local consumer market needed, In other words, National China Mobile authorizes that each provincial China Mobile designs a suitable subsidized contract package for local consumers to buy Nokia Lumia 920T, which will help Nokia gain market shares with all possible efforts from National China Mobile. That’s the reason why you read so many different subsidized contract packages. You can read @MichelleRyan wrote that 2 Chinese web site links.

    As reported, China Union also constructed 2-year or 3 year subsidized contract packages for Nokia Lumia 920. In my opinion, China Telecom will soon follow suit. In a short period of time, after Nokia partnered with China Mobile which published so many subsidized contract packages that symbolize a token of gratitude, and mutual respect.

    Just FYI, you can read actual consumers bought each model device after they review each product of Nokia, Apple, Samsung smartphones (Chinese website below). In addition, you can click iPhone 5 shown more detail % bought on iPhone 5, iPhone 4 respectively. It holds true for Samsung.

    I have no idea or knowledge about how reliable or accurate these consumers bought % data, just for your reference.

    浏览过该产品的人最终购买了( translation in English, How many consumers actual bought each model device after they reviewed, or tested samples in a store). I monitored the Chinese web site and wrote down numbers weekly for my own review. The web site is update every Saturday if not changed.

    Based on tables below, Nokia Lumia 920 sales are moving in the right direction from 48.10% in week 50 to 54.60% last week. Under the same comparisons, Samsung is declining week after week while Apple initially was strong and solid, better than Nokia but it is down, too.

    Nokia has been selling excellent quality products at a reasonable or competitive price compared to Apple Iphone 5 or 4S, Samsung Note II or S III. In addition, Nokia is a recognized brand name in China with excellent map and location service, pureview camera, and recording technologies, ---etc, just name a few. In fact, there is no comparison based on innovation points of view in the current available smartphone market.

    Nokia Lumia 920

    Date, Week, Actual bought %, ASP (RMB)

    12/15/2012, 50, 48.10%, 4555

    12/22/2012, 51, 50.90%, 4469

    12/29/2012, 52, 54.60%, 4350

    Apple Iphone 5

    Date, Week, Actual bought %, ASP (RMB)

    12/15/2012, 50, 59.60%, 4812

    12/22/2012, 51, 60.40%, 4733

    12/29/2012, 52, 50.50%, 4638

    Samsung Note II

    Date, Week, Actual bought %, ASP (RMB)

    12/15/2012, 50, 54.00%, 3538

    12/22/2012, 51, 52.90%, 3539

    12/29/2012, 52, 49.70%, 3569

    I am long NOK.

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2013, at 4:10 PM, TheRealRacc wrote:

    Can we please remove MichelleRyan comments or disallow from commenting?

  • Report this Comment On January 04, 2013, at 9:23 AM, st0815 wrote:

    Wishful thinking is not a good basis for investing in stocks. WP currently has a global market share in the 3% range. Looking at that, something getting Nokia to reach 6% would be sensational. If you've found a way to come up with data that Nokia has reached 50% market share and want to act on that, then you need to step away from your stock account. It's clear that this can't possibly be useful.

    Likely you are just measuring that of the very few who actually even look at a Lumia phone in that store, a high percentage then go on to purchase it. The reviews on Amazon for the previous Lumias were excellent, too - but the devices were bought only by a handful of people.

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