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Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Haynes International (NASDAQ: HAYN ) fell as much as 16% in early trading after announcing a reduction in fiscal first quarter guidance. Near the end of trading, the stock has recovered some of that loss, and was down 7%.
So what: Management now expects the fiscal first quarter, which ended December 31, to bring revenue of $114.3 million, and net income of $5.5 million to $6.0 million. Analysts' current expectations sit at $132 million in revenue, and $0.71 per share, which is well below the new estimate.
Now what: Maybe the most concerning statement was that management expects uncertainty in the near future, and had low visibility. Customers are cutting back due to economic and budget uncertainty across the country, and Haynes' management is trying to lower expectations. This isn't a reason to panic, because shares were trading at a very good value before the new expectation; but it may take a while for normal operating conditions to return. I would look for an even greater discount in the future as a buying opportunity and keep a close eye on quarterly comments for signs of improvement.
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