Will My Top Chip Stock in 2012 Outperform Again in 2013?

In the video below, Eric Bleeker discusses why Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM), a company he singled out as the top chip stock heading into 2012, performed so well last year. A transcript follows the video.

Austin Smith: Eric, I wanted to talk to you and revisit some of the top chip stocks of 2012.

Eric Bleeker: Yeah. At the end of 2011, I had actually suggested that a company, Taiwan Semiconductor, was the top chip stock for 2012.

Well, I'm now looking back and since that call, Taiwan Semi is up about 50%. Why is this happening? It would be easy to dismiss chip manufacturing as just a commoditized business. Doesn't it strike you as a commoditized business?

Austin: It does, although there is some advanced technology there. I mean, it's not a business I would really be excited about owning.

Eric: Exactly. But so many unique trends are playing out, and the innovation at this bleeding edge is leading to huge consolidation within the industry, which is improving gross margins once again, is being able to bring large customers to Taiwan Semi, and the result has been a 50% increase since I made that call, which, for a company of its size, is awesome. It's also a company paying out 3% plus dividends the whole way.

Let's look at it. What's the situation? Well, right now we not only have Taiwan Semi basically executing in a consolidating industry that's pushing out the smaller players because it's so expensive to keep moving up, technology-wise. They're also looking at getting Apple as a customer, who is doing everything they can to get out of Samsung's grasp.

That's driving them from the story, but what's truly amazing is just the raw dynamics. Their big competitor, Samsung, has to produce 500 million of its own phones or mobile devices next year. That doesn't leave a lot of capacity for other players.

GlobalFoundries is a great competitor, too, but they're much smaller. Taiwan Semi, you just have to go through them. They're becoming a toll booth. The one big concern for them is Intel, but there's no guarantees that Intel is even going to enter the manufacturing market.

I think the only troubling issue with Taiwan Semi, and what could hold them up is valuation. They're about 17 P/E, but if we look at the triumvirate of mobile players, where ARM owns the architecture, Qualcomm owns the design, and Taiwan Semi owns the manufacturing, Taiwan Semi is actually the cheapest-trading of that group. [Qualcomm is also a key customer of Taiwan Semiconductor.]

Do I think we'll see another 50% gain in 2013? No. It's just a little too big at this point. Its P/E is probably not going to expand to the level there, but do I think it's a great stalwart in your portfolio? Yeah. It's still a great chip stock to own in the year ahead.

What's inside Supernova?
Mobile has been a driving investing theme for Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner, helping lead his stock picks to gains of more than 122% in our Stock Advisor service since it launched in 2002. Those returns have beaten the market by more than 90%. David has managed to trounce the market by always being on the lookout for revolutionary stocks and recommending them before Wall Street catches on to their disruptive potential. If you're interested in how David discovers his winners, click here to get instant access to a personal tour of David's Supernova service.


Read/Post Comments (0) | Recommend This Article (0)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

Be the first one to comment on this article.

DocumentId: 2200480, ~/Articles/ArticleHandler.aspx, 4/21/2014 12:56:36 AM

Report This Comment

Use this area to report a comment that you believe is in violation of the community guidelines. Our team will review the entry and take any appropriate action.

Sending report...


Advertisement