1 Thing to Listen For in Apple Earnings Wednesday

On Wednesday, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) will report what some analysts consider its most important earnings release in a decade. This particular report is crucial not only because of lofty expectations surrounding the new iPhone 5 and iPad Mini, but also because investors have gotten their confidence beaten out of them because of the monstrous 30% pullback since September.

Here's one more thing to listen for on Apple's earnings conference call: China.

Can you hear me now?
Much ink has been spilled over Apple's incredible growth prospects in China, but only recently has the company begun providing real detail into its financial performance in the Middle Kingdom. Apple defines its Greater China segment as Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.

The reason investors have to listen for it is because CEO Tim Cook now provides that information on the conference call, typically when asked directly by an analyst. This hasn't always been the case, but Cook has taken to giving out these figures recently. For example, the only reason investors know that Greater China revenue was approximately $858 million in fiscal 2009 was because Cook said that geographical segment comprised 2% of sales that year -- a revelation he didn't reveal until the Q4 2011 conference call.

This data isn't contained in any of Apple's press releases or SEC filings, but it's one of the most important areas for investors to keep an eye on. That's especially true since Cook recently said he expects China to eventually surpass the U.S. as Apple's biggest market. The company still has its work cut out for it, since the U.S. and China generated respective revenues of $61.3 billion and $23.8 billion in fiscal 2012.

Source: Apple conference calls.

For context, in the previous fiscal first quarter release, Greater China generated revenue of $4.5 billion. There are also a couple factors to remember when judging Apple's seasonal performance in China. While the December quarter is the big holiday shopping season in the U.S., the March quarter includes Chinese New Year over there.

It's all about timing
In fiscal 2012, sales jumped 75% sequentially to $7.9 billion heading into the March quarter. On top of that, the iPhone 5 didn't officially launch in Mainland China until December, where the device garnered 2 million sales during the first weekend. The curveball is that Hong Kong was among the launch countries in September, and there is a very active and very large gray market for smuggling iPhones into Mainland China, since ambitious smugglers were fetching upwards of $1,100 per unit when the iPhone 5 launched.

The same thing is true for the iPad Mini, which officially launched in Mainland China at the same time as the iPhone 5 in December, with the cellular-equipped models landing just this month. The iPad Mini saw strong demand at its official launch, with one analyst characterizing interest as "insatiable," since inventories were sold out at all of Apple's retail stores in China. The smaller tablet was launched in Hong Kong in November as part of the first batch of countries to get the device.

That means some initial demand for both of those devices could have been satisfied before the official launch for customers willing to pay a premium. Other prospective buyers may have had to wait until the New Year, after the fiscal quarter closed, to get their hands on iDevices.

Keep an ear out
Apple's geographical reporting standards could be improved for the sake of transparency. The company currently reports direct sales to geographical segments, but also a separate category for its retail operations. Since it operates retail stores in 13 countries, the company's retail results include numerous geographies and makes it harder for investors to isolate performance in specific countries.

Until then, investors will just have to keep an ear out on the conference call.

Apple has been a longtime pick of Motley Fool superinvestor David Gardner, and it has soared 215% since he recommended it in January 2008. David specializes in identifying game-changing companies like this long before others are keen to their disruptive potential, and he helps like-minded investors profit while Wall Street catches up. I invite you to learn more about how he picks his winners with a free, personal tour of his flagship service, Supernova. Inside, you'll discover the science behind his market-trouncing returns. Just click here now for instant access.


Read/Post Comments (3) | Recommend This Article (7)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On January 20, 2013, at 12:52 PM, PinkFloydRoadie wrote:

    That first sentence is definitely what I am thinking... this could be the most important earnings call in years.

    The other thing I will be listening for is the stampede of investors running for the door if they don't like what they hear ;-)

    This is probably a good time for the iCrowd to keep in mind that even if Apple beats earnings, they can still get a really good spanking on the stock price.

    Yes, Apple has a history of making conservative projections and beating them wilding, but that is of much less importance these days. Apple has done that trick so much that it is now expected and factored into the stock price. If they don't blow away the numbers that "anal-yst" are expecting, then mass selling is what I am expecting. Let's just hope Apple hangs in there a post good results (for the sake of the general market as well).

  • Report this Comment On January 20, 2013, at 1:16 PM, chinaman8 wrote:

    AAPL stock is just way undervalued right now. Based on current and future earnings, it should be over $700 today.

    China doesn't typically like to buy Japanese or Korean products so Apple should continue to do well there.

    The iPhone5 and iPad mini are selling well everywhere in the world.

  • Report this Comment On January 22, 2013, at 11:49 PM, dwilh51183 wrote:

    AAPL SHOULD BE OVER $900.00 TODAY. THEIR SALES ARE REMARKABLE FOR 1 QUARTER. IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW MANY IPHONES THEY SELL OR IPADS, JUST THE MONEY MADE.

    YOU DON'T SEE ANALYSTS SCRUTINIZING KROGERS EARNINGS, SAYING THE MUST SELL 50,000 GALLON'S OF MILK OR 2200 BOXES OF TIDE AND 3 MILLION BOXES OF DORITOES, 22,000 CANS OF GREEN BEANS...ALL THAT MATTERS IS EARNINGS

Add your comment.

DocumentId: 2205352, ~/Articles/ArticleHandler.aspx, 4/17/2014 12:21:17 AM

Report This Comment

Use this area to report a comment that you believe is in violation of the community guidelines. Our team will review the entry and take any appropriate action.

Sending report...


Advertisement