Why Northern Oil & Gas Shares Tanked

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Northern Oil & Gas (NYSEMKT: NOG  ) fell as much as 10% today after the company announced production numbers.

So what: The company expects fourth-quarter production of about 10,800 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which is up 55% from a year ago but down 4% sequentially. The company expects oil differentials to be between $2.00 and $2.50, down from $10 in the third quarter.  

Now what: Investors were clearly expecting more production, but some of the decline was due to weather. Management said that drilling picked up near the end of the year to close to previous levels. I think this will be a short-term blip, and with the realized price of oil rising, the stock will perk back up. Shares trade at just 11.5 times next year's earnings estimates, a decent value if production grows next year.

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