Cisco's Big Debut and Ford's Record-Breaking Performance

On this day in economic and financial history ...

On Feb. 16, 1990, just five years after its founding in a San Francisco garage, Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO  ) went public on the Nasdaq stock exchange at a market capitalization of approximately $150 million. Investor interest quickly picked up in this young networking dynamo, and within a year its market cap, it had grown by 400%. Throughout the 1990s, Cisco would remain one of the hottest names in high-tech. A Fortune feature at the end of 1995 hailed it as "one of the great investment plays of a lifetime" when an IPO-day investment had already gained about 6,000%. Its consistency in beating expectations was seen as ironclad: "[D]uring its first few years as a public company, Cisco used to carry such a large backlog of orders that executives had actually been able to predict on the day the quarter began by how much the company would beat analysts' earnings estimates."

Cisco's shares split nine times by the time it peaked in March 2000 at one of the largest market caps of all time. By that point, the initial investment of $22.25 in one share in Cisco's 1990 IPO had grown to 287 shares worth more than $22,400 -- a 100,600% gain in a single decade. Cisco fell hard from its dot-com peak and has never recovered in market-cap terms, but that hasn't stopped it from growing its fundamentals. Two decades after its IPO, Cisco's annual net income had risen to $6.5 billion from just $14 million in 1990, which represents an incredible 36% annualized growth rate for two decades. This consistent growth helped Cisco land a spot on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) in 2009, long after its share-price hypergrowth had been replaced by a slow decline. This transition from darling to pariah hasn't made Cisco a particularly rewarding addition for the index. In the three years following its inclusion, Cisco shareholders lost 14% on a total return basis while the baseline Dow (not adjusted for dividends) grew by 43% on an epic rebound from a deep bear market.

Let's chat
Cisco's key technologies might have helped push the rapid growth of the Internet, but many key developments in Internet history took place before Cisco was ever formed. For example, ARPANET, the networked predecessor to the Internet, has been around since 1969, and the very first networked bulletin board system was born in the middle of a blizzard on Feb. 16, 1978, before the PC ever existed.

That bulletin board was the brainchild of Ward Christensen and Randy Seuss, who came together (in typical programmer fashion) to develop a way for members of their group of Chicago-area computer hobbyists to post notes for each other without having to leave their houses in a snowstorm. The pair developed a server and software that allowed others to dial into it from their modems to read threads and post updates -- essentially the same thing millions of people do every day around the world, and which you can do right now if you'd like by scrolling down and sharing your thoughts in the comments section of this article.

Of course, Ward and Randy's setup was far more primitive than the Reddits and other message boards we're used to. Besides lacking even the simple framework of MS-DOS, the first message board colonists had to dial into the server with a maximum speed of 1.2 kilobits per second. To put that in perspective, most half-decent cable modem services now offer download speeds nearly 900 times faster, if not thousands of times faster. If you were trying to read this on Ward and Randy's bulletin board, you'd have to wait more than a minute for it to load.

Help comes for the small farmer ... in theory
On Feb. 16, 1938, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed that year's Agricultural Adjustment Act into law. It was, in the words of The New York Times, "the most ambitious farm relief experiment the nation has ever attempted."

The act was devised in response to the Supreme Court's rejection of a 1933 law of the same name. In that case, the court had found it unconstitutional to tax companies processing the output of farms only to redistribute these taxes back to the farmers in the form of subsidies. The court held that agricultural regulation should be left to the states. The act of 1938 remedied this problem by making the subsidies a direct government outlay instead of a recycling of processor taxes, which at the time were anticipated to generate about $200 million in annual revenue for the federal government.

Roosevelt commented on signing that his national farm policy was "to assure to agriculture a fair share of an increasing national income, to provide consumers with abundant supplies of food and fiber, to stop waste of soil, and to reduce the gap between huge surpluses and disastrous shortages." The act's passage, Roosevelt said, represented the "winning of one more battle for an underlying farm policy that will endure."

He was right. The act undergirds much of the federal government's current agricultural policies, although in many places it has been augmented or superseded by more recent legislation. Its latest descendant, the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (also known as the Farm Bill), provided $284 billion over five years to various agricultural programs, including about $42 billion for commodity crop subsidies, $189 billion for nutrition programs, $24 billion for conservation, and $22 billion for crop insurance. The act was extended during the 2012 fiscal cliff talks but will expire this coming fall.

Revving those profit engines
On Feb. 16, 1989, Ford (NYSE: F  ) reported what was then a record auto-industry annual profit of $5.3 billion for its 1988 fiscal year, less than a week after General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) reported a short-lived record profit of its own of $4.9 billion. Ford's record was the more impressive, as it managed to earn more profit despite 16% less revenue for the year. Ford was also by far the most impressive grower of the Big Three automakers, as it had increased annual profit by 83% since 1984, as compared with GM's tepid 9% five-year gain and Chrysler's four straight years of shrinking earnings.

Thanks to Ford's record year, the Big Three combined for an industry record of $11.3 billion in net income, driven by strong overseas performances. This performance helped ease worries that the industry might have peaked, but it wouldn't last long. Ford's net income would fall throughout the early '90s before bottoming out in negative territory in 1992. However, several years later, as the dot-com boom made everyone rich, Ford reached record net levels of net income that have yet to be surpassed. Prosperity is rarely consistent in the auto industry.

Ford has been performing incredibly well as a company over the past few years -- it's making good vehicles, is consistently profitable, recently reinstated its dividend, and has done a remarkable job paying down its debt. But Ford's stock has been stuck in neutral for a long time, until its recent breakout. Has this created an incredible buying opportunity, or are there hidden risks with the stock that investors need to know about? To answer that, one of our top equity analysts has compiled a premium research report with in-depth analysis on whether Ford is a buy right now, and why. Simply click here to get instant access to this premium report.


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