February 19, 2013
Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (NASDAQ: RRGB ) were sizzling today, climbing as much as 24% after crushing estimates in its quarterly report.
So what: Net income at the burger chain more than doubled as adjusted earnings per share jumped to $0.59 a share, from $0.28 a year ago. Analysts had expected just $0.44 a share. Revenue grew at a healthy clip as well, climbing 17% to $240.7 million, better than the consensus at $232.9 million. Operating margin also improved by 70 basis points to 20.6%.
Now what: Despite the strong report, there was one area of concern. Same-store sales, a key figure in the restaurant industry, grew by just 1.4%, indicating that the vast majority of additional sales came from new stores. Red Robin projects comparable sales growth of 2.5% to 3% in 2013, in part from higher prices, and an increase in its company-owned store count of about 6%. This means revenue growth should slow down considerably in the coming year. Considering that, today's big jump seems a bit overdone.
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