3 Predictions for Next Week

I went out on a limb last week, and now it's time to see how that decision played out.

  • I predicted that Ferrellgas Partners (NYSE: FGP  ) would move higher on the week. The leading propane distributor was set to report earnings, and a strong report to back its hefty yield should've kept the units moving higher. The units closed 0.5% higher after accounting for its latest $0.50-per-unit distribution. It wasn't enough to beat the market, but the prediction was merely about a positive return on the week. I was right.
  • I predicted that the tech-heavy Nasdaq would outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average. (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) . This has been a tricky call lately, so how did it play out this time? It was a strong week for the markets, and while all of the attention seems to be on the Dow's hitting an all-time high, secondary stocks weren't exactly slouches. The Nasdaq closed 2.4% higher. The Dow, on the other hand, managed to clock in with a gain of 2.2% on the week. I was right.
  • My final call was for Main Street Capital (NYSE: MAIN  ) to beat Wall Street's quarterly profit target. The business development company is rolling, blowing through Wall Street's bottom-line forecasts with ease over the past year. Analysts were looking for a profit of $0.49 a share during the quarter, and Main Street Capital came through with net income of $0.56. I was right.

Three out of three? Awesome!

Let me once again whip out my trusty, dusty, and occasionally accurate crystal ball to make three calls that may play out over the next few trading days.

1.Krispy Kreme will shoot higher on the week
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (NYSE: KKD  ) has been as sweet as its doughy treats these days. The stock hit an eight-year this past week. One has to go all the way back to the summer of 2004 to find the last time the stock was trading this high.

Things can get even better this new week. Krispy Kreme reports on Thursday. Analysts see profitability doubling to $0.12 a share, but it's easy to expect even more. Wall Street has erred on the conservative side here lately, as Krispy Kreme has beaten profit projections by 50% or better in the past three quarters.

A strong report should send the sugary shares off to new highs. My first call is for Krispy Kreme to close the week higher.

2.The Nasdaq Composite will beat the Dow this week
Tech has been a big winner in recent years, so betting on tech over stodgy blue chips has been a good bet for me more often than not. I'm going to stick with this pick. Most of the names in the composite are just too cheap at this point, and the results this earnings season weren't as bad as some worrywarts had feared.

The market is ripe for the tech-stacked secondary stocks to continue to outpace the 30 megacaps that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

3. Ebix will beat Wall Street's earnings estimates
Some stocks are just flat-out better than others.

When it comes to providing enterprise software solutions, Ebix (NASDAQ: EBIX  ) has been a strong performer. Shares took a hit last month after a bearish report criticized the company's accounting practices, but Ebix started to bounce back after defending itself and its bean counting.

Another thing Ebix does is make analysts look like perpetual underachievers. If analysts say the company posted a profit of $0.45 a share in its latest quarter, I'll whip out a "greater than" sign. History's on my side!

One of my best tricks to beating the market is finding stocks that perpetually land ahead of the prognosticators. Let's go over the past year of earnings reports.

 Quarter

EPS Estimate

EPS

Surprise

Q4 2011

$0.41

$0.44

7%

Q1 2012

$0.39

$0.40

3%

Q2 2012

$0.39

$0.47

21%

Q3 2012

$0.40

$0.46

15%

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Things can change, of course. There can always be some merit to the bearish knocks, and this is isn't the first time Ebix has come under attack. As Ebix grows its reach through acquisitions, there's always the risk that a deal may not pan out.

However, at a time when Ebix is coming under fire, it's a safe bet that the company will be doing anything it can to make sure it doesn't alarm shareholders by underperforming. Everything seems to be falling into place for another market-thumping quarter on the bottom line.

Three for the road
Well, there are three predictions right there. Let's see how I fare this week.

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  • Report this Comment On March 10, 2013, at 3:12 PM, kfchild41 wrote:

    Your fgp pick was negative for the week fool it started out at 21. It ended at 20.5. How to you figure it gained?!!!!!!!

  • Report this Comment On March 11, 2013, at 12:26 AM, Olipso wrote:

    I read that bearish "report" on Ebix. It was complete nonsense full of extremely emotional language and an incomplete understanding of IFRS accounting. He is a self-proclaimed short seller and repeats many fallacious arguements that Copperfield Research, the other attacker, made.

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