March 12, 2013
Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Cabela's (NYSE: CAB ) were up as much as 13% today, after the outdoor retailer surprisingly raised its first-quarter guidance ahead of its annual investor meeting tomorrow.
So what: The hunting and fishing specialist said sales in most of its segments were up strongly and that it now sees per-share profits of $0.57 to $0.62 against analyst estimates of $0.47. Cabela's also said the same-store sales percentage increase should be in the high teens and that direct revenue, which is made up of online and catalog, is expected to grow at a percentage rate in the low to mid-teens.
Now what: The company didn't say which categories improved the most, but some analysts believe the nationwide surge in gun sales following the Sandy Hook massacre in December helped boost the company's outlook. There's no question that the improvement in guidance is a good sign, but a 13% jump in the stock based on an additional $0.10 to $0.15 increase in EPS seems exaggerated. I'd like to see evidence of a longer trend before I got invested.
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