Tick Tock Goes the Obesity Clock

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The message from Orexigen Therapeutics (NASDAQ: OREX  ) during its fourth-quarter conference call yesterday was clear: Everything is proceeding as planned.

The corollary to that message is that it's going to be awhile before the biotech is able to launch its obesity drug, Contrave.

The Food and Drug Administration made the company run a clinical trial to confirm that there weren't any heart-related complications with Contrave. The trial is now fully enrolled and is on track for an interim look in the second half of the year. At least, as best the biotech can tell.

The interim look will happen after the occurrence of a certain number of cardiovascular events, such as heart attacks or strokes. As the trial progresses, the committee should have a better idea of whether the trial will fall in the estimated 1% to 2% event rate. If it's low -- closer to 1% -- the interim peek will be later, potentially pushing resubmission into early 2014. Orexigen won't know the event rate, but the data monitoring committee will let the company know if it's on track to finish later this year.

Orexigen and marketing partner Takeda could be a year or more behind the launch of obesity drugs from VIVUS (NASDAQ: VVUS  ) and Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ARNA  ) . But I'm not sure that's the worst thing in the world.

VIVUS is off to a slow start. Despite the large number of obese Americans, doctors aren't prescribing Qsymia in mass. Patients aren't clamoring for the drug in part because of high out-of-pocket expenses. It's going to take education of doctors and insurers to get sales up. That education will be more about the obesity space in general than specific drugs, so Orexigen will benefit from VIVUS' and Arena's efforts.

Takeda is the best marketing partner. VIVUS doesn't even have one. Arena has Eisai, but I think Takeda is likely to be more effective since it sells diabetes drugs Actos and Nesina. The former is off patent, but Nesina was just approved, giving Takeda sales reps two drugs to hock to the doctor once Contrave gets approved.

Of course, first the cardiovascular study has to come back clean. Tick tock. Tick tock.

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Read/Post Comments (4) | Recommend This Article (0)

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Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On March 14, 2013, at 10:25 AM, Geezwad wrote:

    You must in the Arena, before you can play the game.

  • Report this Comment On March 14, 2013, at 11:27 AM, adumfraudstain wrote:

    Contrave, like Qsymia, will be a reformulated flop.

  • Report this Comment On March 14, 2013, at 11:46 AM, RSRdriver wrote:

    Since Arena's Belviq has absolutely zero going for it, and Vivus may have patent issues, it is likely Orexigen will be the first to be bought out by a big pharma company.

  • Report this Comment On March 14, 2013, at 4:10 PM, mybell2 wrote:

    Orexigen will make it to the market. With it will come a large cardio trial! None of the other 2 drugs will have this. Plus the other 2 drugs have rems in place plus additional studies to be run. Orexigen will be the winner and those who can sit and wait will be rewarded.

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