Football Cards: 2013 NFL Draft Cause for Concern?

Last year was a banner one for football cards, highlighted by an unusually strong 2012 NFL rookie class.

That rookie class featured what looks to be at least three elite quarterbacks, including Robert Griffin III of the Washington Redskins, Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks, and Andrew Luck, who set single-season and single-game rookie passing yardage records and led an Indianapolis Colts team that was the league's worst in 2011 to 11 wins and the playoffs in 2012. Griffin and Wilson both ranked in the NFL's top five in passer rating, and both led their teams to the playoffs as well. Ryan Tannehill of the Miami Dolphins could very well join this elite group in the next year or two.

The 2012 draft class also had two rookie running backs who ended up in the top five in the league in rushing yardage -- Doug Martin of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and sixth-round pick Alfred Morris of the Washington Redskins -- as well as a rookie linebacker in Luke Kuechly of the Carolina Panthers, who led the league in tackles. In addition, RB Trent Richardson of the Cleveland Browns and wide receiver Justin Blackmon of the Jacksonville Jaguars -- the third and fifth overall picks in the 2012 NFL Draft, respectively, may yet pan out as elite players.

The strong rookie class has made its impact on cardboard prices. As demand has increased while supply has dried up, blaster boxes of 2012 Topps Chrome Football, which sold for $19.99 at retail at Target and Wal-Mart, are now going for $30 to $35 a pop on eBay. Meanwhile, 12-box hobby cases of the same set -- which could be had for less than $1,300 as recently as January -- are now pushing $1,700 to $1,800 per case.

With the 2013 NFL Draft just weeks away -- and with the first 2013 NFL sets featuring players who haven't even been drafted yet are already on the market -- are we in for an encore?

On one hand, retailers and collectors alike have expressed concern over what is perceived to be an exceptionally weak 2013 NFL draft class. On the other hand, at last month's Industry Summit in Las Vegas, card manufacturers were quick to point out that players can emerge seemingly out of nowhere. After all, Wilson was a third-round pick, while Alfred Morris flew so under the radar as a sixth-round selection that he wasn't even included in the 2012 Topps Chrome set.

Are the card manufacturers right to be optimistic?

The short answer is probably not. Following is a list of the top 15 base rookie cards by ungraded book value from the Topps Chrome Football sets from 2004 to 2012. Also included are their graded BGS 9.5 Gem Mint values where available according to Beckett.com, as well as the adjusted multiple (the graded value multiple to ungraded book value, adjusted for the cost of getting a card graded, which is assumed to be $10).

Notice anything?

Top 15 Topps Chrome Football Base RCs, 2004-2012

Card

Card Number

Position

Ungraded BV

BGS 9.5

Adjusted Multiple

2004 Topps Chrome Ben Roethlisberger RC

166

Quarterback

$40

$100

2.0

2004 Topps Chrome Eli Manning RC

205

Quarterback

$30

$80

2.0

2005 Topps Chrome Aaron Rodgers RC

190

Quarterback

$80

$250

2.8

2005 Topps Chrome Phillip Rivers RC

230

Quarterback

$12

$50

2.3

2005 Topps Chrome Larry Fitzgerald RC

215

Wide Receiver

$12

$50

2.3

2005 Topps Chrome Sean Taylor RC

202

Safety

$12

--

 

2007 Topps Chrome Adrian Peterson RC

TC181

Running Back

$25

$60

1.7

2007 Topps Chrome Calvin Johnson RC

TC200

Wide Receiver

$15

$35

1.4

2008 Topps Chrome Matt Ryan RC

TC166

Quarterback

$12

$40

1.8

2008 Topps Chrome Joe Flacco RC

TC170

Quarterback

$12

$35

1.4

2009 Topps Chrome Matthew Stafford RC

TC210

Quarterback

$15

$50

2.0

2010 Topps Chrome Tim Tebow RC

190

Quarterback

$12

$40

1.8

2011 Topps Chrome Colin Kaepernick RC

25

Quarterback

$12

--

 

2012 Topps Chrome Andrew Luck RC

1

Quarterback

$15

--

 

2012 Topps Chrome Robert Griffin III RC

200

Quarterback

$12

--

 

Source: Beckett.com.

Of the top 15 rookie cards from 2004 to 2012, all but four of the players are quarterbacks, including the last seven players from 2008 to 2012. Meanwhile, only one player -- the late Sean Taylor -- was on the defensive side of the ball, while the other three players all play skill positions.

The 2013 NFL Draft appears exceptionally weak where it counts. Only one QB -- Geno Smith of West Virginia -- even merits a first-round grade according to Scouts, as found on ESPN.com's NFL Draft page. Moreover, Scouts has Smith as only the 20th-ranked player in the draft, and it might scare you to note that Blaine Gabbert of the Jacksonville Jaguars had a higher pre-draft rating in his 2011 draft year.

And if you're looking for offensive stars outside the quarterback position, Scouts doesn't have a wide receiver or running back in its top 15, either. As such, the odds are strongly against the emergence of a truly elite wide receiver like Calvin Johnson or a running back like Adrian Peterson from the 2013 draft.

Indeed, the top of the 2013 NFL Draft appears to be strong on defense and on offensive linemen, but weak where it counts on cardboard. And while it's always possible that a Russell Wilson or an Alfred Morris -- or a Colin Kaepernick, for that matter -- could emerge, this might be a good year for football card investor/collectors to take it easy and sit on the sidelines, or otherwise take a wait-and-see approach.

2013 NFL Draft: Position Breakdown of ESPN.com/Scouts Top 32

Position

No. of Players

Defensive Tackle

6

Offensive Tackle

4

Defensive End

4

Linebacker

4

Cornerback

4

Guard

3

Wide Receiver

3

Quarterback

1

Tight End

1

Safety

1

Running Back

1

For more of Jeff's analysis on this topic:


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  • Report this Comment On May 25, 2013, at 9:28 AM, fantasyfan wrote:

    Very good article. I believe 2013 is going to be one of the worst years for rookie cards in some time. I don't think the football card industry will take a huge hit due to the frenzy that last year created and that will likely carry over this year for the majority of fans that don't care much about card value/making money and other non hard-core collectors where they aren't "investing" in future gains. I fall in the middle myself and unfortunately for myself, I think this year will be so "blah" that I'll have to stay away which stinks because it's certainly something I enjoy doing it...and not just for the money, but it is a consideration and one that make it very hard for me to buy a $3 "pack of cards" (pack = ~4 cards on average) : and not think about it.

    To make matters worse, baseball will be similar. Last year was a pretty big year for baseball with Trout and Harper finally having ACTUAL ROOKIE CARDS (instead of three years of prospect minor league build up cards) and those two alone (not to mention Darvish and Cespedes) will make this a down year for baseball as well. Thank goodness for the Orioles who honestly could carry an "average" rookie class for 2013 baseball cards with Machado, Gausman and I believe Bundy (unless the 2 IPs in 2012 take away his rookie status...it gets pretty dang confusing to be honest).

    Here's to a new trend starting (which I really believe should be bigger in card collecting than it is) that second year, third year, etc should be worth more than fourth, fifth, six year cards, etc. A sliding scale basically.

    Using Aaron Rodgers Topps cards as an example, you'll see his 2005 rookie card in Beckett is $20.

    2006 - $1.50

    2007 - $1.50

    2008 - $1.50 (unlisted star)

    2009 - $1.25

    2010 - $1.25

    2011 - $1.00

    2012 - $1.00

    Ok, so it does fall a bit the farther away the rookie year, but take a few other examples

    (Topps w/ prices from Beckett):

    Drew Brees: 2001(RC) - $15; 2002 - $1

    Peyton Manning: 1998(RC) - $20; 1999 - $2; 2000/01 - $1.50; 2002/05 - $1.25; 2006/12 - $1

    Why not something like $20 to $10 to $5 to $2.50 to $1? And what about the year he won his SuperBowl and his MVP awards? No bump?

    This is a small sample and only using Topps and Beckett, but all cards follow this pattern and don't price differently.

    GRANTED, this is probably the wrong website to make this argument because it's mostly about supply/demand and I'm sure between 2002 and 2005, Topps probably had just as many cards available of Peyton (of course does that mean in 2006 when it goes down by a quarter, there were more?), BUT take away the economics and I making a decent point.....right? ( :

    Something to think about anyhow ESPECIALLY in 2013 since there will be no rookie cards to be had (sure, Mr. Hwang is right and there are sure to be some players that make waves and bring value with it), but wouldn't it be nice to see those Luck's, RG3's, Wilson's, and other '12 rookies who had good rookie seasons and even better second year seasons actually be worth something this year or a few years from now? Instead, they will turn into the new Rodgers/Brady/Manning that are the only NON-ROOKIE, Insert, or Parallel cards that are "worth anything" (if you call $1/$1.25 worth something...)

    Ryan

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