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Is Caterpillar Digging Itself a Deeper Hole?

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Just days after announcing cuts of up to 300 employees at its South Milwaukee facility that it acquired from Bucyrus, heavy-equipment manufacturer Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT  ) laid off 460 workers at its Decatur, Ill., plant, again citing mining industry weakness. The Decatur plant is a manufacturing facility that runs a foundry, overhaul, and remanufacturing, and where the South Milwaukee layoffs have been deemed temporary, these are said to be permanent. All told, the company wants to eliminate about 2,000 jobs.

A deep hole
Caterpillar identifies coal, iron ore, gold, copper, and oil and natural gas as primary users of its equipment, so it's easy to see why the equipment maker is taking it on the chin. Mining companies are abandoning the coal industry in droves.

Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO  ) recently announced its intention to sell off its Australian coal assets while also seeking "strategic alternatives" for its copper and gold mines. Despite global financial turmoil, gold is incongruously slipping as a safe haven, as billionaire investor George Soros recently pointed out.

While I see that as a temporary response to the currency destruction being engineered by central bankers -- people only have their gold to sell to get cash, so it's depressing the price -- BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP  ) is also looking to strip away things it now considers unessential to its main operations, and it has idled a number of coal mines and is looking to shed oil and gas assets because they're deemed the easiest to get rid of. Cliffs Natural Resources (NYSE: CLF  ) is idling iron pellet facilities because of weakness in the steel industry.

Demand an answer
As I noted over the weekend, fourth-quarter coal consumption in the U.S. tumbled 11%, according to the Energy Information Administration, and production was down 12%. It's not looking much better in steel.

The World Steel Association says that while China's crude steel production jumped nearly 10% in February, it was down almost everywhere else in the world, with the U.S. experiencing an 11.8% falloff, amounting to a 1.2% global increase in production. But with demand falling, we're going to see weak pricing rule the day.

While natural gas prices have rebounded in recent weeks to above $4 per million Btus, they fell again last week, settling right at $4 at Henry Hub but down to $3.90 on the NYMEX. And as mild weather spreads across the country, it's likely they'll fall below that threshold again, even as the number of natural gas rigs in operation has dropped below 400 for the first time since 1999.

Strength in numbers
Joy Global
(NYSE: JOY  ) is the world's second largest mining-equipment manufacturer, and it relies even more so on the coal industry's health than Caterpillar does, with two-thirds of its sales coming from coal miners. It cut several hundred jobs late last year, and in its first-quarter conference call in February, the equipment manufacturer pointed to a 27% decrease in books, as original equipment orders dropped 30% and it saw aftermarket orders cut by a quarter.

Both Caterpillar and Joy Global have lost around 20% of their value over the past year, and the outlook for the industry seems bleak. Yet these are companies in cyclical industries, and the time to buy such stocks is when things look darkest. They might not have reached their nadir just yet, but they're both becoming attractively priced, warranting their addition to your watchlist.

Caterpillar is the market-share leader in an industry in which size matters, and its quality products, extensive service network, and unparalleled brand strength combine to give it solid competitive advantages. Read all about Caterpillar's strengths and weaknesses in The Motley Fool's brand-new report. Just click here to access it now.

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Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On April 10, 2013, at 1:17 PM, blackorpheus wrote:

    As people sell their gold, this brings the price of gold down. It's already reached too high a price

    and sales of gold have topped and and slowed

    anyhow. Silver is the new "rising star" but it's

    price has been dropping recently, too.

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Related Tickers

9/28/2016 4:00 PM
CAT $86.59 Up +3.71 +4.48%
Caterpillar CAPS Rating: ***
BHP $34.10 Up +1.48 +4.54%
BHP Billiton CAPS Rating: ***
CLF $6.30 Up +0.24 +3.96%
Cliffs Natural Res… CAPS Rating: ***
JOY $27.76 Up +0.15 +0.54%
Joy Global CAPS Rating: ***
RIO $33.74 Up +1.51 +4.69%
Rio Tinto CAPS Rating: ***