Not Exactly What Investors Were Looking For

Exact Sciences' (NASDAQ: EXAS  ) phase 3 trial for its colon cancer detection test passed, but the stock dropped 20%. What gives? In this video, David Williamson goes into the details of Exact Sciences' DNA-based test. The overall effectiveness of the Cologuard test was 92%. However, the detection rate was 42%, less than colonoscopy, and the 87% overall accuracy rate leads to a higher false positive rate than most doctors would like to see. Is Exact Sciences doomed? Not really -- it has $100 million in the bank. It may be a takeover target, and David sees Intuitive Surgical  (NASDAQ: ISRG  ) as a possible buyer.

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Read/Post Comments (9) | Recommend This Article (1)

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  • Report this Comment On April 20, 2013, at 5:01 PM, larrypfeifer wrote:

    Seems like David is rushing to judgement based on only minimal data provided by the company. Conroy gave guidance that complete analysis is coming in a peer reviewed journal in the near future. Patience grasshopper.

  • Report this Comment On April 20, 2013, at 6:13 PM, Mikey925 wrote:

    David, with all due respect you don't seem to be very well informed about a molecular diagnostic company such as Exact Sciences. The detection of pre-cancerous polyps sized 2cm was 66% and the detection of high grade dysplasia (the pre-cancerous polyps that are on the verge of turning into full-blown cancer was said by the company to be several percentage points "north of 66%". Given that the Pap-Smear is only 47% sensitive, it would appear that Exact Sciences has a winner in Cologuard.

    PS. It's COLO-guard. Not COLON-guard.

  • Report this Comment On April 21, 2013, at 6:43 PM, robmxa wrote:

    Virtually NO understanding of the numbers. This is an insanely good test that will save millions and could virtually eliminate death by Colon Cancer.

    Please get in touch with someone who knows numbers (statistics).

    All insurance companies will require this test from all policy holders every three years or they are fools.

    Taking this test every three years will detect pre cancerous polyps and/or Stage I cancer in 99% of cases. The results are cumulative and have a very good chance of detecting pre cancer years before Stage I.

    Remember if this test fails three times over 9 years and still finds Colon Cancer at Stage I on the fourth test at that stage it has a 95% cure rate.

    Add up the numbers, 42% first test, 66%+ second test, 78% third test and 92% if it gets to Stage I Colon Cancer.

    Add up the numbers. What chance has Colon cancer got over those four Cologuard test?? It would miss like .03%

    Colonoscopys are only 94% accurate and a much lower number of people will get one and surely not ever 3 years.

    Do some homework and if you don't understand the numbers find someone who does before giving out BS.

  • Report this Comment On April 22, 2013, at 1:00 PM, lntwo wrote:

    Dismal analysis.

    Read SA comments section (Cleetus, Lungman) of dismal Jake King piece, for meaningful breakdown of clinical results.

  • Report this Comment On April 22, 2013, at 1:14 PM, kirkydu wrote:

    This is a better article:

    An Exact Opportunity

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/an-exact-opportunity-2012-0...

  • Report this Comment On April 22, 2013, at 6:02 PM, Troy2008 wrote:

    "However, the detection rate was 42%, less than colonoscopy, "

    Really? The detection rate for colonoscopy of those particular PRE-CANCERS is ZERO.

    The test will be hugely successful and will only improve over time. Yes ISRG may indeed try to buy EXAS but for a 100%($18+) premium at worst case.

  • Report this Comment On April 25, 2013, at 2:45 PM, Troy2008 wrote:

    This was EXACTLY what investors were looking for!!!! Another chance to load up in the $7's!!!

    Motley Fail.

  • Report this Comment On April 25, 2013, at 4:16 PM, Kleeno65 wrote:

    David,

    Nice job providing misinformation. Colon-Guard???? Seriously???!!! FAIL!!!

  • Report this Comment On May 02, 2013, at 10:15 AM, Mikey925 wrote:

    David,

    Did you listen to the Q-1 Conference Call yesterday? Are you going to do a "follow-up" article on EXAS given their screening tests Superiority to FIT? Or are you simply going to leave us with the poor excuse for an article above?

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