2 Reasons "The Walking Dead" Could Be a Billion-Dollar Franchise

By every measure, The Walking Dead is success for AMC Networks (NASDAQ: AMCX  ) . Season 3 ended with 12.4 million viewers of last month's gut-wrenching finale.

Overall, the show thrust AMC ahead of network rivals when it comes to attracting the coveted 18-to-49 adult demographic, as this chart shows:

"In just three seasons, The Walking Dead has become a pop-culture phenomenon, entertaining millions of passionate viewers and obliterating traditional lines between cable and broadcast television," said Charlie Collier, AMC's president, in a recent press release.

He's right. Network television used to command the highest ratings. Now, CBS (NYSE: CBS  ) , Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA  ) subsidiary NBCUniversal, News Corp.'s (NASDAQ: FOXA  ) Fox, and Walt Disney's (NYSE: DIS  ) ABC are fighting for every eyeball as AMC, HBO, and Netflix break rules.

AMC's rebellious streak stretches well beyond The Walking Dead. The studio also recently green-lit All-Star Celebrity Bowling, which had been a project for The Nerdist Channel on YouTube created by Talking Dead host Chris Hardwick. (Find the teaser promo here.)

The benefits of ownership
For investors, licensing is where AMC's development of The Walking Dead starts to get particularly interesting. Here's what CEO Josh Sapan had to say when asked about the company's longer-term distribution plans at December's Global Media and Communications Conference, hosted by UBS:

When we make a TV show like The Walking Dead, a decision that we need to make is whether to, I'll put quotes around this, "sell it to ourselves outside of the U.S.," which means put it on the channels that we now operate under the name Sundance in Europe and Asia or -- and WE tv in Asia -- or to sell it to another company. In this case, we sold it to Fox for a price because we, frankly, found it very hard to turn the money down because our footprint of channels was not sufficiently large to justify being our own buyer. Should we come to the point where that footprint is large enough, then we can be our own buyer.

Translation: We've only started to think through the various ways we can monetize The Walking Dead around the world. Expect us to take our time cashing in.

Source: Skybound Entertainment.

Meanwhile, the comic book series written by co-creator Robert Kirkman is still going strong after more than 100 issues. I've read through Issue 78. The TV show and the comics are different in huge ways, but they're close enough that my reading says the TV series has only explored about a third of the source material.

Thus, AMC could make six more seasons of The Walking Dead right now. Would we still want this show six seasons from now? Would Kirkman still want to be involved? There's no way to know for sure. All we can be certain of is that AMC has what looks to be the richest content wellspring in all of entertainment right now, and it's nowhere near fully tapped.

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  • Report this Comment On April 22, 2013, at 8:09 PM, esxokm wrote:

    Tim,

    Regarding CEO Josh Sapan's comments about selling the series to Fox or to the company's channels itself, I believe the transaction is more complex than he makes it out to be.

    It would be far better for shareholders if the company did sell its product to itself, but then you run the risk for sweetheart-deal litigation. Talent would claim that the vertical integration led to below-market pricing, which it would have, and which would benefit shareholders.

    To my understanding, this is not illegal to do (double check me on that, but I assume it is legal), but talent does not like it because it reduces their payday. Agents try to put clauses in contracts that say studios must in good faith negotiate fair market value or above fair market with third-paty entities.

    This then brings up a question: where does the money derived from Fox go? Does a large percentage go to Kirkman and his agent? What about the other major stars and their agents? Do certain execs at AMC receive profit participation?

    Dig deeper into the issue of the sweetheart-deal and how this may have affected the decision. Hollywood economics can get very complicated.

    Another excellent article on the media, thanks...

  • Report this Comment On April 24, 2013, at 11:50 PM, JarethLoneguard wrote:

    I love this franchise! I've read the comics and have followed the show! I wouldn't be surprised if they keep making more and more money, as long as the content they put out retains its amazing quality! http://www.creativetales.net/

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