Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of RealPage (RP) have been rising since an early morning plunge that shaved more than 11% off their value, and now seem to have stabilized at a loss of about 4% from the previous trading day. Investors seem somewhat displeased that the company's financial results and forward guidance were all so average.
So what: RealPage's revenue rose 19% year over year in the first quarter to $89 million, a hair ahead of the $88.9 million Wall Street consensus (essentially meeting the target). Adjusted earnings of $0.13 per share also matched the consensus estimate of $0.13 per share. Looking forward, RealPage's second-quarter guidance of $93.5 million to $95 million on the top line and $0.13 to $0.14 hit the consensus on both sides -- Wall Street sought $94.4 million in revenue and $0.14 in EPS. RealPage also sees full-year revenue of between $384 million and $390 million (in line with the $385.5 consensus) and $0.57 to $0.60 in EPS (also in line with the $0.59 consensus).
Now what: If this were an archery contest, RealPage would take home the gold, but investors tend to prefer a company beat the Street rather than meet it halfway. As a result of doing what everyone expected, RealPage was downgraded to "hold" from "buy" by Credit Suisse, which issued a price target $1 higher than the stock's current level due to concerns of decelerating growth. Even on an adjusted basis, RealPage's forward P/E sits at 32 presently -- only justified if you expect big growth to continue into the future. RealPage is now trading down 9% for the year to date, so the markets may not expect such growth for much longer.
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