TiVo's Million-Man March Problem

TiVo (NASDAQ: TIVO  ) posted respectable quarterly results on Monday, but TiVo-owned subscribers -- the number of people who own actual TiVo boxes serviced directly through the DVR pioneer -- continue to shrink. We're at just 1,007,000 direct accounts, 22,000 fewer than TiVo had three months ago and 73,000 net defections over the past year.

Sure, indirect subs gained through cable and satellite television giants worldwide have grown from 1.4 million to 2.4 million over the past year, but TiVo just receives $1.19 per month from those users. The average revenue from its TiVo-owned customers is a juicier $8.51 a month.

In this video, longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz explains why TiVo is likely to fall below a million direct accounts this quarter, and why TiVo's monthly churn of 1.5% is deceptively low.

Yes, Sirius XM Radio and Netflix may have higher churn rates as premium entertainment platforms, but 48% of TiVo's million direct accounts are no longer paying TiVo any money.

Investors have approached TiVo as a patent play with its ability to get multiple service operators to pay up for rights to offer TiVo-like features, but it would be nice to see its flagship business gaining ground again.

Despite Sirius XM being one of the market's biggest winners since bottoming out three years ago, there is still some healthy upside to be had if things go right for it -- and plenty of room for it to fall if things don't. Read all about Sirius in The Motley Fool's premium report. To get started, just click here now.


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