Why Guess? Shares Jumped

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Guess? (NYSE: GES  ) were back in style today, climbing as much as 10% after turning in a better-than-expected earnings report.

So what: The jeans and apparel maker delivered an adjusted profit of $0.14 a share, ahead of estimates of $0.08. Revenue slipped 5% to $549 million, but that was in line with expectations. Cooler weather in Europe, where Guess? takes in a third of its sales, helped drive revenue down in the quarter. Sales on the Continent fell 13%. Guess?' forecast also topped expectations as the retailer says it now sees revenue between $620 million and $635 million in the current quarter, better than the consensus at $618.4 million. The company also said same-store sales have improved and are now flat for the current quarter.

Now what: The first quarter is seasonally the slowest for Guess?, so the earnings beat may mean more for the trend it represents rather than the six additional cents per share the company earned. The improved forecast is promising as well, but this is still a company facing flat growth with no particular strength or competitive advantage to drive future sales. The restructuring may be working, but I'd say shares are overvalued at a current-year P/E of 18.

Want more on Guess? Just add the company to your Watchlist by clicking here.

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