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Tesla's Spilled Secret May Be Its Smartest Move Yet

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It's no news that Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA  ) has major expansion plans. But with its car cards on the table, investors are wondering why CEO Elon Musk spilled the beans on new developments before maximizing sales for current car models. This physics major knows there are reactions to every action, and his move may be more calculating than we think. Here's what you need to know.

Spoiled surprise
Shares of Tesla are up 180% this year, but the automaker isn't worried about making market moving announcements. After Q1 deliveries of its Model S clocked in at 4,750 units, 5.5% above expectations, Elon Musk is already moving on to next-generation models.

The CEO recently revealed plans for a new sedan and compact SUV with $35,000 price tags and 200-mile ranges. That cuts consumer costs in half, scoring major points for Musk's mass-market musings. As fellow Fool John Rosevear recently noted, Tesla's vision is to become "the electric version of a car company like BMW."

But bears are worried that Musk may be mouthing off a bit too soon. If car shoppers are tempted by Tesla's future offerings, this newest announcement might put off their purchases until newer, cheaper models hit the lot. Is this possible? Absolutely? Is it what Musk wants? Absolutely.

Out with the old
Tesla built its business on the back of its Tesla Roadster, Model X, and Model S, but less efficient technology and a prohibitive price put these models out of want and out of reach for most consumers. Musk knows that these most recent announcements might minimize sales for current models, but that means maximized sales for its upcoming additions. With mass appeal comes increased brand power, economies of scale, and a market presence on par with other luxury competitors.

Scale is especially important as Tesla hopes to make the most of luxurious margins. To do that, the automaker needs to fill out the capacity of its room-to-grow factory. Tesla's HQ is the old haunt of a Toyota Motors (NYSE: TM  ) and General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) joint venture, rated at 500,000 vehicles. The factory dates back to the early 1980s, and fell into Tesla's open hands after Toyota tossed it off for $42 million in May 2010.

Tesla's good fortune mirrors that of Tata Motors (NYSE: TTM  ) in 2008, when the Indian automaker bought Ford's (NYSE: F  ) floundering Jaguar Land Rover company for a paltry $2.3 billion. And just like Tata, Tesla is hoping to maximize sales in the luxury vehicle department. In April alone, Jaguar sales clocked in at 4,710 units while Land Rover roared ahead with 23,790 units sold. Sales are up 12.2% year over year, and the company enjoyed more than 30% growth in the UK and Asia Pacific.

Is Tesla worth it?
With Tesla's recent price spike, any attempts at valuation are virtually impossible. The company is in growth mode, and Musk's recent announcements prove once again that this company isn't playing by the rules. I've seen my own shares soar 175%, and I'm excited to buckle in for Tesla's mass market ride.

Although Tesla's plan to disrupt the global auto business has yielded spectacular results, there's more you need to know. Giant competitors are already moving to disrupt Tesla and investors can't decide whether the company can fend them off. The Motley Fool answers this question and more in our most in-depth Tesla research available. Get instant access by clicking here now.

Read/Post Comments (37) | Recommend This Article (23)

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  • Report this Comment On June 08, 2013, at 1:49 PM, JRP3 wrote:

    Musk didn't spill any beans that weren't already spilled. The Tesla business plan has always been to roll out a more affordable smaller sedan after the Model S. It's part of his "secret" master plan that he published years ago.

  • Report this Comment On June 08, 2013, at 2:32 PM, GeorgeStrong wrote:

    Actually, Musk published his secret master plan in 2006 (7 years ago) but there is a secret coming on June 20 from All Things D11

  • Report this Comment On June 08, 2013, at 2:54 PM, ezboxbreaks wrote:

    any individual who dumps tons of money in an EV CAR STOCK that has a share price over 100 dollars is a complete idiot. their competitors trade FAR lower than that like in the 20's and 30's..... if you think for one second your going to make money with a company when it's near the peak of it's pump and dump growth? you're well out of your foolish mind. wait for it to crash like facebook did... then invest if the model is consistent and steady growth is on the horizon.

  • Report this Comment On June 08, 2013, at 3:32 PM, PinkFloydLawson wrote:

    And if he gets to bypass the dealer networks that everyone else has, he can control the supply/demand chain. Yet another reason to not allow that to happen.

  • Report this Comment On June 08, 2013, at 3:37 PM, Petronilus wrote:

    A good rule in business is when you make great products people really want, you can make great business. When Tesla came from nothing and created their first Sedan that earned a 99% score and became the best car ever in Consumer Report's review earlier this year, it was a wake up call to a car industry that has been sleeping for too long.

    The Silicon Valley culture of visionary thinking and disruptive innovation has arrived in the car industry and a lot of us have been begging for this to happen for many years. The sleeping giants can copy Tesla's product concepts just making them always behind, but to copy their company culture and visionary leadership (Elon Musk) is a completely different thing.

    If Elon Musk had two options:

    1. Make a Silicon Valley company to innovate and enable the EV future with new staff

    2. Take the lead in an existing car company in Detroit with existing staff to do the same

    I'm sure he wouldn't have succeeded if he had pursued option 2.

  • Report this Comment On June 08, 2013, at 3:57 PM, rotorhead1871 wrote:

    the focus should be on the infrastructure not the cars....the cars will go nowhere without charging stations...lots of them. given the time it takes to fuel an electric car....

    musk is just in the mix......but without a charger station plan....this whole electric thing is a joke.....

  • Report this Comment On June 08, 2013, at 4:24 PM, QQ007 wrote:

    rotorhead1871, actually, there are plans to build charging stations, lots of them....within the next six months to a year, and beyond. Musk has said they would always be free. No joke.

    Check out map here:

    We have become used to cynicism and greed as the norm with anything having to do with the auto industry. Tesla is proving to run on a completely different model. Those who've been cynical and uninformed about Tesla this year have missed out big time. Tesla is the automobile industries Apple.

  • Report this Comment On June 08, 2013, at 4:39 PM, snjpage1 wrote:

    rotorhead, QQ007 is correct. They announced two weeks ago that they were going to build free charging stations all across the country so that owners can drive across the country in their cars and not have to pay to charge them.

  • Report this Comment On June 08, 2013, at 4:45 PM, ckgod wrote:

    Did BMW miss any sales of 750i or MB miss any sales of S550 because potential buyers might think they will offer new models that is about half the price in the future? No wait they alreay offer those models and people are still buying 750i and S550.

  • Report this Comment On June 08, 2013, at 5:18 PM, Fatherofifty wrote:

    Actually, rotorhead, I've travelled 3100 miles (not exactly 'nowhere') in my Model S without using a single charging station, other than the one in my garage. After I get solar panels next month, I'll be paying 4 cents per mile travelled. How much do you pay per mile? My Prius is 8.7 cents ($3.85/44 miles per gallon).

  • Report this Comment On June 08, 2013, at 5:34 PM, PinkFloydLawson wrote:

    Call me what you wish, but it's simply not possible or desirable for 99% of us to drive cars 200 miles +/- before we have to stop somewhere (anywhere) and plug them in. Period. If GM can get another 50-60 miles out of the Volt before the gas motor kicks in, for 40K less the tax credit, that makes more sense. And it can be serviced, if needed, in practically any town.

  • Report this Comment On June 08, 2013, at 6:26 PM, menza00001 wrote:

    TSLA trading for 1/4 that of GM and 1/5 that of F seems a bit expensive, specially selling < 5000 units. Not sure what other low volume car companies like Ferrari and Maserati are worth, but i am guessing TSLA is worth even more. Not sure how the GM Volt sales are doing. Investors (i.e. traders) are taking stock in future prospects of an entire family of electric vehicles, some with lower price tags (and probably lower margins). Although higher volumes might help with margins, real savings might not be realized till 100,000 units/year. Who knows how long it will take to reach 100,000 units per year. If they reach that volume, that would be great. I give kudos to Elon, this is a great product and it is time EV comes to mainstream. I am glad TSLA was able to close US gov debt and issue company debt to keep things going. The stock price could be used to issue more shares. I really hope things work out. I am all for more efficient vehicles, and renewable energy. The investors (traders) will probly bid the stock up till reality sets in (e.g. CROX), but its a game (of chance). Not sure when the euphoria will end, but i am thinking someday the delusions of infinite car sales will settle down to more realistic outcomes. Until then, valuations are futile. Again, I wish Elon and TSLA luck. It does bother me about all the emissions and greenhouse gasses, and I wish better transportations means do catch on, but I really wonder how wallstreet really values companies anymore. ?????????? Stock price is up for graps.... seems every company is valued a bit differently.

  • Report this Comment On June 08, 2013, at 6:53 PM, josh995 wrote:

    Doesn't every auto maker announce future vehicles? I doubt the people spending $80,000 - $100,000 on a larger car are thinking about a smaller $35,000 car.

  • Report this Comment On June 08, 2013, at 6:56 PM, Ntivos1 wrote:

    I could be wrong, but I don't recall the $35K price being mentioned by Musk or Tesla. I remember comments to the effect of, the new sedan would cost about half of what the Model S goes for.

    I was thinking more like $50K, since you can't really expect to get a $70K Model S. When optioned out, you are looking at $100K. Yeah, I guess you can get a $70K Model S but I am sure that the majority of the sales are in the $95K+ price range. (Who'd buy a $70K vehicle with cloth seats???) But boy oh boy do I lust over a Model S. One can dream.

    Also, I don't see the mention of a model that is more than 3 years away affecting Model S sales. You are talking 2 different demographics of buyers. Someone about to purchase a $100K vehicle is not going to get cold feet because of the mention of a vehicle coming out in 3 (or more) years that will cost half as much.

    Take me for example. While I could "afford" to buy (finance) a Model S, I can't justify that cost. A $50K Tesla is a whole different ball game.

  • Report this Comment On June 08, 2013, at 7:00 PM, tom33952 wrote:

    Could be an Osborne moment for Musk.

  • Report this Comment On June 08, 2013, at 9:35 PM, TomIncorporated wrote:

    ezboxbreaks: You're not wrong, waiting for a dip is what I would do. I invested in Tesla at $33 and am desperate to buy more shares. I'll do that whenever it dips below $80. Even buying at $100 isn't a disaster as I am totally confident it will get to $200 and beyond in the next few years. But you wrote that Tesla's "competitors trade FAR lower" – I'm not sure Tesla have any competitors at all. All other electric vehicle manufacturers are light years behind, and so are the big auto companies that are trying desperately to make an electric car that even comes close to Tesla's Model S.

    PinkFloydLawson: Why on earth are you attached to the dealership model? There is a better way you know. One snippet of information you may not know is that Tesla's model is to not make any money from service. That means an end to dealers programming your dashboard lights to warn you that it's time for an oil change [way in advance of your engine actually needing one] or a service, and all those associated costs. A friend of mine had a Model S test drive today, placed an order 90minutes later, and raved about the entire experience and their customer service. I suggest you take a test drive yourself. No pressure. Regarding your later comment, Tesla do have a growing amount of service centers if you ever need one:

    rotorhead1871: As others have said, Tesla's focus is very much on infrastructure. A massive infrastructure! Check out the Supercharger network expansion. And of course the bottom line is that you charge your car at home overnight and have a full 200+ miles of range in the morning. It's a no brainer really, and the end to however much you pay per month on gas.

  • Report this Comment On June 08, 2013, at 9:55 PM, DrNel wrote:

    If you have not driven a tesla for more than a week I really wish you do not say anything negative because you are not qualified to comment.

    If you have not tracked a 458 Ferrari then you really cannot be qualified to say anything negative about Tesla except it does not make noise.

    $100 a share is a bargain. It should be 10x that.

    This is NOT a car company. Tesla is a innovative technology company on par with Apple or Google.

  • Report this Comment On June 08, 2013, at 10:21 PM, PinkFloydLawson wrote:

    @DrNel: Oh stop it.

    @tombland: Here's the thing... there are good and bad dealers and by not doing business with those that practice bad tactics, they will eventually go away or change to stay in business. Similarly, the manufacturers HATE them as much as you and I do because it gives them a black eye.

    Dealers provide protection to consumers. Among other things, they mediate disputes if a car is a problem (don't think for a minute people won't get lemon Teslas) and can get the manufacturer to offer financial assistance to the customer or even buy the car back. They employ hundreds of thousands of people or more and generate billions of dollars of revenue at all levels. If you have a serious issue with a Tesla, and don't get satisfaction, who do you call... Ghostbusters? At least with a MB or BMW the dealer acts on your behalf and if you're not happy you can speak to the factory rep yourself.

    All of you buying stock want to profit. So why is profit a dirty word as it relates to dealers? You're perfectly willing to let a manufacturer charge you whatever it wants with no checks and balances in place? And no one to mediate a dispute? That's insane.

  • Report this Comment On June 08, 2013, at 11:20 PM, LungsOfSteel wrote:

    I've been in California for a week and am flabbergasted how many Teslas I've seen.

    However, they look like second-rate Jaguars and Bimmers.

    More power to moving forward the idea of personal transportation, but by the time Tesla gets it right, the rest of the world will have something to counter....something that goes further than a normal commute in Los Angeles.

  • Report this Comment On June 09, 2013, at 1:08 AM, TomIncorporated wrote:

    @PinkFloydLawson I hear your point, but think you may underestimate what an honest company Tesla are. If you have a problem with your Tesla you call Tesla. I wish I could speak personally, but not owning a Tesla I can't do so – yet. However I'll share some more info with you from my friend's experience ordering a Model S at a Tesla store today. The Tesla staff member told them they MAY NOT NEED to buy the high powered wall connector for their garage and that the standard outlet connector that comes free with the car may be sufficient. There was no hard-sell, trying to sell you things you don't really need – you have to appreciate that.

    Also, Tesla commit in writing to purchase your car back at 50% of its original worth at the 3 year mark. The average resale value for luxury sedans is 30% – but only Tesla give you a guarantee. Top marks there as well.

    Sure we all like profit, but choosing to NOT make a profit on service breeds powerful, genuine loyalty from customers and huge word of mouth potential.

    So to answer your question, yes I am perfectly willing to let this manufacturer charge me whatever it wants. The dealers and the oil industry have such a controlling grip on the auto industry that I am happy to do whatever is required to further high quality electric cars and free energy. Even if that means spending a bit more than necessary. Even if prices do come down in a few years, which like any new technology they inevitably will.

    A new sustainable model for buying cars is desperately needed right now I'm afraid – there is a tidal wave of demand for this – and I think only a new company like Tesla can achieve this. The existing auto companies are too entrenched in their ways.

    Nobody has any right to hinder Tesla from pursuing a different approach. Unless they're a dealer, an oil company, or a large auto manufacturer of course.

  • Report this Comment On June 09, 2013, at 1:39 AM, yulegurreau wrote:

    solar panels charge Tesla overnight? on what planet

  • Report this Comment On June 09, 2013, at 2:07 AM, DrNel wrote:

    @yulegurreau you may be new to solar but the concept is you produce electricity during the peak periods and sell your excess to your local electric company at a premium then you buy back at night when u charge your car at near wholesale cost.

    I do it everyday.

  • Report this Comment On June 09, 2013, at 2:14 AM, DrNel wrote:

    @pinkfloydlawson when was the last time you returned a new car?

    Have you ever disputed an apple computer sale?

    Come on man... The world is changing for the better and for Tesla to make near insane profit margins. Almost as high as a software company.

    You have to be an high tech venture captialist to begin to comprehend what is about to happen at Tesla. This is truly the biggest game changer since the Internet, google and apple.

    We should all be proud to me in America the land of freedom (to sell direct) and innovation.

  • Report this Comment On June 09, 2013, at 9:59 AM, josh995 wrote:

    PinkFloydLawson - Consumers have just as much protection buying a Tesla as they do another model. If you think just because Ford has dealer presence, their buyers have extra protection privileges not available to Tesla buyers, you're wrong. It sounds as if you have a personal grudge against Tesla for not other reason than because they're different.

  • Report this Comment On June 09, 2013, at 10:06 AM, PinkFloydLawson wrote:

    @tombland: A 50% residual at the 36 month mark is not something to brag about. The likelihood of being able to purchase a nice MB/BMW/Lexus/Acura or even certain Cadillac's that's 3 years old, in nice condition with average mileage, and certified for around 50% of its original MSRP is zero. All of those brands bring significantly higher resale. They would also still be under warranty until 100,000 miles or longer if certified.

    Right now Tesla is doing everything right to win favor, and quality control is easy when you're only producing and selling a few thousand units. Lexus, on the other hand, achieved similar results with huge numbers by comparison (the Lexus LS) and virtually no one complains about the way Lexus people treat their customers. But Toyota also had big problems once the volume of units went up. Recall the Toyota/Lexus unintended acceleration lawsuits from a couple years back. While I think the suits were completely garbage (driver error... NO car can overpower its brakes), the damage to Toyota's reputation has taken years to repair. I think it's improbable to believe Tesla will be perfect.

    @DrNel: Cars are repurchased by the manufacturer EVERY DAY. Typically they're not Fords and Chevy's but rather BMW's or Land Rovers.... highline cars where even a simple defect like a bad battery (causing periodic no-start issues) is enough to warrant goodwill on behalf of the manufacturer. That shows up on a CARFAX as a "Lemon Law Repurchase" and delaers buy them back and re-sell them, repaired under warranty, all the time at a reduced price.

  • Report this Comment On June 09, 2013, at 10:09 AM, PinkFloydLawson wrote:

    @josh995: How am I wrong? It's ok to disagree but I think you need to provide an example as I did.

  • Report this Comment On June 09, 2013, at 12:34 PM, RHO1953 wrote:

    Caveat emptor. A lot of this is smoke and mirrors. I don't believe there is a broad mass market for electric cars. Not yet. Maybe in ten years.

  • Report this Comment On June 09, 2013, at 1:13 PM, TomIncorporated wrote:

    @RHO1953: Would you think differently if the cars were of high quality and performance, under $50k, with a nationwide network of free charging stations for road trips, and the ability to charge at home?

  • Report this Comment On June 09, 2013, at 1:25 PM, TomIncorporated wrote:

    @PinkFloydLawson: I can understand your concerns regarding a mass increase of volume. We'll never know unless Tesla are given a chance though. Are we agreed on that?

    You mentioned warranty and I just wanted to quote these details about the Tesla Model S warranty:

    * Model S comes with a 4 year or 50,000 mile (whichever comes first) new vehicle limited warranty. An additional warranty covers the battery and varies by capacity. The 60 kWh battery is covered for 8 years or 125,000 miles, whichever comes first. The largest battery, 85 kWh, is covered for eight years and unlimited miles.

    There's a lot of fascinating facts on this page, I genuinely think you'll find it interesting if you've not already seen it:

  • Report this Comment On June 09, 2013, at 1:52 PM, PinkFloydLawson wrote:

    @tombland: I think Tesla has to EARN a chance. If the buying public thinks enough of the product, then time will tell.

    I am still of the belief the car can only appeal to a select few and that may be ok. Corvettes only appeal to a select few too.

    I will never support a non-dealer arrangement. Once you allow Tesla or anyone else to sell directly, that opens a huge can of worms that can destroy the economy and job front. Carried to the extreme, why not just pick up your groceries from the distribution warehouses and bypass grocery stores? Or get your boats directly from the manufacturers and eliminate boat dealers too.

    If buyers see value, they will buy it. If not, they won't. Just my opinions.

  • Report this Comment On June 09, 2013, at 3:34 PM, TMaherII wrote:

    I work at the Fremont Plant( MOL2 Body Scheduler ) and I see first hand what's going on and I can tell you we are hard at work to change the future of transportation. I don't care what you big money makers see, Elon is a rock star in my eye's. He's doing more for this country if not the world than anyone has done in the passed decade if not longer!!!!! "Super Chargers-Gen Model"

    Just wait and see!!!!

  • Report this Comment On June 09, 2013, at 6:23 PM, TomIncorporated wrote:

    @PinkFloydLawson: Generally I'd say that when I buy something I try to balance A) what is the cheaper deal for me, and B) whether the manufacturer or seller is worth supporting by buying from them directly. Some groceries like fruit, vegetables and meat I buy directly from farmers. I want the good stuff that supermarkets don't sell, even if it's a bit more expensive, and I want to support those farmers too.

    Take cameras for example though. I can't get a wholesale price from Nikon or Canon – but Amazon can, so I'll buy from them because they can usually get me the best price. Like you said, "if buyers see value, they will buy it. If not, they won't."

    Whatever the product, it just depends on the circumstances and what works best for the manufacturer and their customers. But no sales model should be enforced as being 'the only way' for either a buyer to buy or a seller to sell. That's not progressive at all, or democratic. The world is evolving, things change, and people are realizing there might be a better option. Please watch this, these 5 minutes at the Tesla shareholders meeting last week cover this topic:

    (Apologies I'm always giving you links to reference!)

    If a boat dealer is going to mark up the price of a boat and sell it for a higher price than if i just bought the boat directly from the manufacturer then I think you know where I'm going to buy my boat from. I have no attachment to using unnecessary middlemen for the sake of keeping those unnecessary middlemen in a job.

    For what it's worth, Tesla have stores across the country (and the world), no doubt creating a lot of jobs.

  • Report this Comment On June 09, 2013, at 8:11 PM, PinkFloydLawson wrote:

    @tombland: Ok... at least we agree to disagree politely. And I do see your side. Here's an interesting link:

    @TMaherll: Nope. Carroll Shelby was a rock star. Musk is "Tony Manero".

  • Report this Comment On June 09, 2013, at 11:24 PM, TomIncorporated wrote:

    @PinkFloydLawson: Yes that (the story at your link) is their biggest challenge, but if anyone can do it Tesla will. The battery technology in their existing Model S and forthcoming Model X are far superior to any other electric car on the market, so you can bet that whatever it is they're working on now for release in a few years will be no joke.

    In addition, breakthroughs in technology like lithium-sulfur batteries are on the horizon which have a greater density, and to my knowledge would add greater range.

    Lastly, Elon Musk is doing a live demonstration on June 20th which will be worth tuning in for. He will most likely be presenting either very very fast charging technology, or a battery swapping concept.

    Glad we can have a constructive debate here, too many raised voices and name-calling in these parts.

  • Report this Comment On June 10, 2013, at 3:44 PM, lbjack wrote:

    I don't think Elon's talking about his cheaper models will dampen the market for the S model. We are talking about people buying an S instead of a MB, Porsche or BMW, not instead a Leaf or a Volt. We are talking TWO SEPARATE MARKETS, not splitting one market.

    June 20 Elon also said he'd be explaining further his Hyperloop concept, which he seems to be very big on. He's trying to sell it as a "one-tenth-the-cost" alternative to the proposed bullet train in California, i.e. $6 billion price tag opposed to $60 billion. This has spurred some speculation that he is moving his focus and may therefore step down as Tesla CEO, though retaining all his interest. That would cause a huge TSLA sell-off.

    Again, this is just speculation, but remember, Elon is a serial innovator. This may be great -- Elon may be an Edison. But remember, Edison had his DC power grid opposing Westinghouse and...Nikola Tesla.

  • Report this Comment On June 10, 2013, at 5:17 PM, TomIncorporated wrote:

    @lbjack: June 20th is a live Tesla demonstration and has nothing to do with the 'hyperloop' concept. He said that once the June 20th Tesla demo is out of the way, maybe then is a good time to talk more about the hyperloop.

  • Report this Comment On June 10, 2013, at 5:55 PM, PinkFloydLawson wrote:

    BMW uses hydrogen to power lift trucks and similar vehicles at its SC plant. That plant also draws methane gas from a nearby landfill and it uses the methane for heat and power, among other things. I think that type of innovation is more significant than Tesla cars, but that's only my opinion.

    Refueling a hydrogen powered unit is fast and simple. Using the available methane saves fossil fuels and is good green technology that won't go to a landfill like a used up battery.

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