Mortgage Applications Plummet, Weighing on Bank Stocks

The carnage in the mortgage market continues.

This morning, the Mortgage Bankers Association announced that applications for home loans fell last week by 11.7% compared with the prior week. The drop was particularly dramatic in the refinance market, which plummeted by 16% on a weekly basis to its lowest level in two years. The volume of applications for purchase-money mortgages slipped by a comparatively reasonable 3%, the trade association noted.

"Mortgage rates reached their highest point in two years last week," said Mike Fratantoni, MBA's vice president of research and economics. "At these rates, many fewer homeowners have an incentive to refinance. ... With this decline in volume, the refinance share dropped to its lowest level in more than two years. Purchase application volume also declined, but not nearly to the same extent, as affordability remains strong."

The problem, as Fratantoni points out, is that mortgage rates have skyrocketed since Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke intimated in May that the central bank could soon begin to taper its support for the economy. Nine months ago, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage carried a 3.35% interest rate. Today, the rate is 4.46%. As my colleague Morgan Housel illustrated here, that makes a big difference in terms of the size of your monthly payment.

And if this weren't bad enough for bank stocks -- although, as I've discussed previously, there's also considerable upside to higher long-term interest rates from a bank's perspective -- it was announced yesterday that the Fed will begin subjecting the nation's largest lenders to heightened capital requirements relative to their smaller community brethren. The list of institutions that will be affected by this includes, among others, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM  ) , Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) , Citigroup (NYSE: C  ) , and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC  ) .

At the end of the day, in turn, if you were wondering why the banking industry is lagging the broader market on the eve of the Fourth of July -- the KBW Bank Index (DJINDICES: ^BKX  ) is currently up by 0.08% while the S&P 500 is higher by 0.26% -- it's not necessarily because the nation's largest lenders are unpatriotic. While there is certainly an argument to be made that they are, the more likely culprits for the performance of bank stocks today lies rather in the two things I noted.

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  • Report this Comment On July 03, 2013, at 9:18 PM, Dadw5boys wrote:

    The Hospital had been trying to bill the Local V.A. Hospital for my son stay in the Hospital instead of ChampVA his Insurance Plan.

    They slapped my credit with the bill 2 days before I went to refiance. I paid the bill the next day. Got on the phone went over everything with them solved the problem. They filed the bill with the Insurance and got pay in full.

    I will get my money back IN 90 DAYS and my CREDIT SCORE WILL GO BACK UP IN 4 MONTHS !!!!!


  • Report this Comment On July 03, 2013, at 11:51 PM, normgarry wrote:

    Who'd have thought they'd have such a hard time getting suckas to buy into these over-priced houses?

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