Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of SunPower (SPWR -2.83%) dropped 14% today after reporting earnings that crushed expectations. Wait... what?
So what: Revenue fell 9.3% in the quarter, to $576.5 millio,n and GAAP earnings per share were $0.15. On a non-GAAP basis, which is what Wall Street compares against, revenue was $650 million, and earnings of $0.48 per share crushed the $0.11 expectation.
The best news is that full-year non-GAAP guidance was increased from $0.60-$0.80, to $1.00-$1.30.
Now what: The fixation of the market today seems to be revenue guidance, which was for $550 million to $600 million next quarter, versus a $682 million estimate. But I'll also note that the analysts who set those estimates ran out and upgraded both SunPower's ratings and the target price of the stock. Northland Capital Markets was most aggressive, putting a $38 target price on SunPower's shares in the next year.
I think this move is a blip in the long-term success story that is SunPower. Solar companies have struggled making a profit, and now that SunPower's profit is crushing estimates, the market shouldn't be turning its attention to revenue, which is a nearly irrelevant figure unless it's put into context. Revenue can be volatile, and with a strategic shift from huge systems to more leases, we should expect revenue to fall. In my opinion, this is still the best stock in solar, and the second-quarter profit proves exactly why.
