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Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Noah Holdings (NYSE: NOAH ) , an investment management firm in China that caters to upper-income individuals, soared as much as 27% after receiving an analyst upgrade.
So what: Before the opening bell, Oppenheimer analyst Ella Ji upgraded Noah to "outperform" from "perform" and set a price target on shares of $18, implying 38.5% upside from yesterday's closing price. Ji's upgrade was based on the fact that Noah has, so far this year, boosted its net income forecast by roughly 50% to a range of $50 million to $55 million and is on pace to deliver year-over-year earnings growth of 86%-105%. Ji cites the company's Gopher asset management business as its main driver of growth but also notes that its recurring revenue has been a source of steady growth.
Now what: This seems like an awfully big move for a single analyst upgrade, so now is as good a time as any to remind investors that analyst actions are often short-term price dictators of stock movements, and rarely do they affect the long-term investing thesis in a company. Noah has made incredible strides in improving its recurring revenue, which I felt back in February is the bread and butter of its business -- and that's really what matters. Even following today's run higher, I don't consider the company particularly expensive, but I'd probably wait for calmer heads to prevail before considering a position.
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