Why DFC Global Shares Got Crushed

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of DFC Global (NASDAQ: DLLR  ) , which provides financial services to unbanked and under-banked consumers, plummeted 27% today after its quarterly results and outlook disappointed Wall Street.

So what: The stock has slumped in 2013 on concerns over new lending guidelines in the U.K., and today's Q4 results -- revenue of $269.1 million missed the consensus by 21% -- coupled with a bleak outlook only reinforce those worries. In fact, management was forced to suspend its bottom line guidance for 2014 due to all the regulatory uncertainty surrounding the business, forcing analysts to cut their valuation estimates significantly.

Now what: Management did offer a full-year adjusted EBITDA forecast of $200 million to $240 million. "[I]t is difficult to forecast with precision the impact and timing our loan program modifications will have on our business in the U.K. in the midst of an evolving marketplace," said CFO Randy Underwood. "Furthermore, the recent significant volatility in worldwide gold prices makes it a challenge to reasonably project the expected profit contribution of our purchased gold and pawn lending products in fiscal 2014." So given the strong headwinds facing DFC right now, I wouldn't be so quick to pounce on this pullback.

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  • Report this Comment On August 26, 2013, at 8:40 AM, assisgnmeaname wrote:

    *So given the strong headwinds facing DFC right now, I wouldn't be so quick to pounce on this pullback.

    - Of the two headwinds named gold prices and UK reg's, the former is now a tailwind with gold prices trending higher, and the latter concern should be pretty much priced in the stock from Friday.

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