Don't Place Your Bets On Peak Oil Demand Just Yet

For some reason, the oil market is always spoken of in hyperbolic terms. A pending dispute between two nations can double oil prices within a matter of months. Or peak oil worries set in and prices will skyrocket as production declines. Today, the new theory is that we are at a point of peak demand, and the decline in OECD demand will lead us to a more rosy energy outlook on the horizon.

There is one thing that we should all give pause to before immediately reacting to news like this: demographics. The sheer size of the global population and the disparity in global economic wealth make the concept of peak oil demand much more difficult to realize than we can possibly imagine.

One Shot, One Beer
One of the general ways that we look at the world is by dividing it up into the slow growth, developed economies and the fast growing, developing economies. Right now, oil demand for the two categories is roughly even at about 45 million barrels of oil per day. But that is just about the only metric where these two groups of nations are equal. There are 4.72 times more people in the developing world, which means that per capita use of oil is considerably smaller than that of developed nations.

  Population (billions) Oil Demand (in million barrels per day) Per capita oil demand (gallons per person*day)
OECD member nations 1.247 45.581 1.595
non-members 5.89 44.187 0.314

Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and BP statistical review of world energy, authors calculations.

As developing economies advance, it is assumed that they will consume more oil. So for oil demand to remain flat, developing nations would need to reduce their consumption by an equal amount. It can be hard to conceptualize very large numbers like global GDP and world oil demand, so let's make a comparison that almost everyone can understand: drinks. If every person in the developing world were to increase their oil consumption by one shot glass a day, those in developed nations would in turn need to use 1 beer can of oil less in order for global demand to remain flat.

What is even more humbling is that those numbers only account for current population. If we were to assume per capita oil consumption were to remain flat between now and 2030, then the projected increase in population would require an increase in production equal to both ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM  ) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX  ) more than tripling their current oil production over that time frame...just to maintain the status quo.

More than just US and China
We all have a tendency to use the US and China as the bellwethers for the developed and developing world, respectively. The thing is, there are many places in the developing world that are not going to behave like China. In fact, based on projections from the OECD, China's population is expected to peak in 2025 and then decline while the rest of the developing world is expected to grow by 2 billion people.  More importantly, the places we expect to see the largest gains in population growth have some of the lowest fuel consumption.

Today, over 60% of the population in Africa use biomass such as firewood as their primary energy source, and a study done at Havard's John F. Kennedy School of Government found that 90% of the rural Indian population still relied on biomass as the primary cooking fuel. As population in both of these regions grow and living conditions improve, oil demand will most definitely follow. 

What a Fool Believes
According to The Economist, over 1 billion people have been taken out of extreme poverty over the past 20 years, and the UN's Millennium Development Goals will look to remove another billion. Freedom from the shackles of gripping poverty will ultimately require more energy resources, though. We have made major strides in the developed world to replace some of our hydrocarbon use with alternatives, but global demand for oil will continue to rise as populations increase and living conditions improve.

At the same time, we shouldn't fret too much about increasing demand. If we as a human civilization have proved anything over the course of human history, it's that we have an immaculate ability to innovate and create new technology to harness energy for consumption. Personally, I look forward to seeing what we have up our sleeves to meet these impending challenges. Not only will human ingenuity and innovation ride to meet these lofty demands, but it will most certainly create several investment opportunities down the road. 

In fact, there is one behind-the-scenes energy company that is built around the very idea of getting more out of our current hydrocarbon sources, and that company has been nominated by our chief financial officer as "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." Let us help you discover the name of this innovative energy company in our special report. Simply click here and we'll give you access to this valuable resource. 


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Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On September 05, 2013, at 1:09 PM, KHubbert wrote:

    The author fails to recognize that our ability to discover new technologies is only a tiny part of the reason that gave us the power to make so much energy. We knew about fracking in the 1950s... The principal reason we have enough energy for the planet is pure luck: the decomposition of organic matter that became oil, which we've been squandering for 150 years. The US peaked oil production in 1970. Egypt peaked in the late 1990s. Mexico peaked a few years ago. And so go the others. The world will begin to decline within two years.

    "What we have up our sleeves" to solve the current energy predicament of replacing 1000 barrels of oil every second is this: hope, which means nothing outside of fantasy.

    We need to fret a lot about both supply and demand because the world has been teetering on a plateau of crude oil production of more or less 75 million barrels/day for the last eight years. When global decline begins we better be consuming less oil or the economic, social, and political impacts will be catastrophic.

  • Report this Comment On September 07, 2013, at 1:04 PM, ralfyman wrote:

    Oil consumption for the rest of the world has been negating demand destruction for the U.S., EU, and Japan, as seen in the first chart of this article:

    http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/04/11/peak-oil-demand-is-alre...

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