Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
So what: Deutsche Bank analyst Vishal Shah upgraded both stocks to a buy rating, and has a price target of $18 for Trina Solar, and $8 for Yingli Green Energy. That's about a 20% upside for both stocks if the target price is met in a year.
Now what: Shah is arguing that demand in China will pick up in the second half of this year, driven by a desire to take advantage of incentives that expire at year end. Overall, the prediction of higher demand is similar to China's own predictions, industry prediction, and what companies have said themselves, so it should be no surprise.
What would be a surprise is a profit from either Trina Solar or Yingli in the second half of the year. Trina has the best shot at making money, simply because it isn't as weighed down with debt as Yingli, so if you're looking for exposure to Chinese solar, that's the better bet. But I'd still look at a profitable company like JinkoSolar first, because it has $1 billion in project financing available, and a better balance sheet than either Trina or Yingli.
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