Why Deckers Shares Jumped

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Deckers Outdoor (NYSE: DECK  ) were looking stylish today, climbing as much as 21% after profits fell less than expected in its third-quarter report.

So what: The maker of Ugg boots and other footwear said per-share earnings dropped to $0.95, from $1.18 a year ago, but that was well ahead of the analyst consensus at $0.72. Sales inched up 2.7%, to $386.7 million, in line with estimates, as a 20% jump in SG&A expenses took a bigger bite out of profits. Meanwhile, sales of the core Ugg brand, which make up more than 80% of company revenue, held the line, improving 1.3%. Sales of the ubiquitous brand have plateaued, sparking fears of a fad, but today's report seemed to stem those concerns. CEO Angel Martinez noted that the Ugg brand "has shown great resiliency over the past year, and said he was "pleased with our current business trends and believe the Company is well positioned for the upcoming holiday period."

Now what: Deckers maintained its full-year revenue outlook at 8% growth, or slightly below expectations of 8.8% growth, and pulled up its EPS growth projection from 8%, to 10%. Analysts had been expecting 9% growth, to $3.77, and the company actually lowered its fourth-quarter EPS growth guidance from 38%, to 32%, due to shifting SG&A expense from the current quarter. Deckers stock has been on quite a roller coaster over the last two years as shares peaked near $120 in October of 2011 before falling to less than $30 last October. With the stock trading at $70 now with a P/E of 22, and modest growth prospects, I'd say the stock is fairly priced.

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