Why Oplink Communications Shares Dropped

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Oplink Communications (NASDAQ: OPLK  ) plunged 13% Friday after the company reported mixed fiscal first quarter 2014 results and disappointing forward guidance.

So what: Quarterly revenue rose 22% year over year to $54.8 million, which translated to non-generally accepted accounting principles net income of $4 million, or $0.21 per diluted share. Analysts had anticipated higher adjusted net income of $0.22 per share on lower sales of $53.35 million.

However, Oplink also said it expects to report second-quarter revenue in the range of $47 million-$51 million, and non-GAAP net income of $0.06-$0.12 per share. The midpoint of both ranges fell significantly below expectations for adjusted second-quarter earnings of $0.26 per share on $55.33 million in sales.

Now what: Even so, Oplink CEO Joe Liu stressed he sees growth over the long term in the company's core telecom and datacom markets, as well as from Oplink's new cloud-based home security service business. When questioned during the earnings conference call about the apparent discrepancy between next quarter's expectations and his long-term optimism, Liu pointed to "multiple new design wins" that the company has "high hopes" will materialize sometime between January and March of next year.

If there's one thing our fickle market hates, it's uncertainty, so it's hard to be surprised shares got punished today. Until Oplink shows more signs that Liu's prediction of long-term growth will come to fruition, I can't blame investors for staying on the sidelines.

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