Why Cisco Systems, Inc. Shares Crashed

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Cisco Systems  (NASDAQ: CSCO  ) plunged 11% Thursday after the company posted mixed fiscal first-quarter 2014 results and weak forward guidance.

So what: Quarterly revenue rose 2% year over year to $12.1 billion, which translated to adjusted earnings of $0.53 per share. Analysts, by contrast, were looking for adjusted earnings of just $0.51 per share on higher sales of $12.35 billion.

However, during Cisco's subsequent conference call, management also stated they expect fiscal second-quarter revenue to fall 8% to 10% year over year, with non-GAAP earnings in the range of $0.45 to $0.47 per share. Analysts were modeling fiscal second-quarter earnings of $0.52 per share on $12.6 billion in sales.

Now what: CEO John Chambers specifically pointed to significant declines in China, as both Cisco and its peers are "working through the challenging political dynamics in that country" -- a certain reference to recent tensions over National Security Agency spying.

Over the long run, however, investors shouldn't forget Cisco's dominant overall position as a stalwart in its industry. What's more, with shares currently trading at just 11.5 times last year's earnings and 9.4 times next year's estimates, it appears plenty of pessimism is priced in. What's more, that makes it awfully difficult to argue with Cisco's decision to further expand its share repurchase authorization by another $15 billion, leaving around $16.1 billion remaining under the program.

Combine that with Cisco's solid 2.9% dividend, and I think patient investors who buy today stand to be rewarded over the long term.

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  • Report this Comment On November 14, 2013, at 6:49 PM, ozzy3 wrote:

    With today's 'corrected' (over-corrected ?) share price, CSCO's dividend yield has pushed up above 3%. Share buy-back plan + 3% dividend = good bet for long-term investors.

  • Report this Comment On November 14, 2013, at 7:21 PM, ozzy3 wrote:

    Re; Cisco's $16 Billion stock repurchase plan ... $16 Billion is more than 10% of Cisco's current market cap.

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