Is This Voxeljet AG's Dead Cat Bounce?

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of voxeljet AG (NYSE: VJET  ) jumped as much as 12% today after falling up to 45% for the week. Is this a sustainable bump or just a dead cat bounce?

So what: There was a lack of market moving news out today but the sharp decline in voxeljet's shares are enough to bring in some buyers. Remember that it was only a week ago that shares popped after a pretty decent earnings report.

Let's put all of these pops an plunges into some perspective. Voxeljet's management expects about 11 million euros, or about $14.9 million in revenue for all of 2013. In the fourth quarter, it expects to ship four -- yes FOUR -- 3-D printers and only has seven total in its backlog.  

This is what investors are getting for buying a company that currently has a market cap of $548 million.

Now what: Today looks like nothing more than a dead cat bounce to me, or a short-term jump in a stock that's headed south over the long term. Voxeljet has a lot to prove before it will be worth its current market cap and has a lot of competition along the way. I think investors got ahead of themselves buying into the 3-D printing craze and would be wise to wait for leaders to emerge before betting on a high risk stock like voxeljet.

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  • Report this Comment On November 22, 2013, at 5:36 PM, highflyer330 wrote:

    What is EXONE's market cap? What is EXONE's profits? Where would EXONE be with out licensing agreements? Yes, that's right Voxeljet AG licensing agreements. The way I see it EXONE is the wrong investment! Voxeljet AG being overvalued makes it a true rule breaker! 3D printing is the manufacturing process of the future. Large printers are need for a number of industries. Automotive, aviation and construction to name a few. I'm also cerain that it wouldn't take much for either EXONE or Voxeljet AG to jump into the desk top 3D printers either.

  • Report this Comment On November 22, 2013, at 7:47 PM, Georgewdunce wrote:

    I think you are wrong. You better cover your shorts as soon as possible.

  • Report this Comment On November 23, 2013, at 2:01 PM, MotherCourage wrote:

    VJET is exactly the type of company that has made Germany the top exporter in the World: more $ sales exported per year than China! In fact, small companies makeup 2/3 of Germany’s GNP. They stay where they are by investing in cutting edge technology, and relentless research and development with a great deal of support by the government and the many research institutes. 500 of Germany’s small companies are number one in their field of expertise. It is a national obsession. Germany nurses and assists these companies along in many ways and especially--as many others have noted--in the area of globalization. So, when VJET says that they will expand to North America and Asia, they will be doing it with the pros, believe me. All manner of support systems will be available to them from government agencies to the ubiquitous German National Chambers of Commerce.

    Right now VJEt is the number one 3-D printer in Europe. They sold off their “old” technology to DDD and have moved on to a revolutionary system that is faster and less expensive. If 3-D printing becomes the manufacturing of the future, then the faster, less expensive company will be at the top. Will the giants be buying slower, more expensive systems? Hardly.

    As for the accusation that VJET is “giving” its product away with payment pans for customers, well, let’s be honest: would there be an automobile industry if that were not possible?

    This is the time to get excited and be amazed at what this company is doing: everything from autos to historical architecture. Beware of short sellers denigrating a company to make a fortune at your expense.

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