Currencies Driving the Global Energy Trade

With Fed tapering talk growing louder ahead of Q114 under newly named Fed Chief Janet Yellen, the prospects for a lower valued USD currency could foster an upward bias in WTI crude prices. This view only gathers momentum with growing skepticism from a record domestic high stock market, greater economic uncertainty, and the U.S. losing even more focus on energy despite being promised a more definitive energy policy under the Obama Administration five years ago. Therefore it is my belief WTI crude should be bought on dips, especially as global traders look to narrow the wide present spread with Brent crude oil.

Efficiency will remain an important focus with rising WTI crude prices so expect service names like Halliburton (NYSE: HAL  ) and Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB  ) to outperform in 2014. With that said, from a global perspective, the USD is only part of the trading story. There are those keenly watching the Chinese yuan gain more global asset allure versus the euro, and that could put France's Technip (NASDAQOTH: TKPPY  ) in a better position to gain investor favor. Why? As crude rallies, I'm expecting subsea focus to once again become more economical. This has me thinking Technip, with a backlog of 15.9 billion euro (8 billion was for subsea work), can outperform; despite much of the company's backlog focused in the Americas (15%), a weakening euro should help Technip's appeal in China, a growing market for the company since it already has two joint ventures in place with China Huanqiu Contracting & Engineering Corporation. 

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