Teva Provides Best/Worst Case Scenarios for 2014

Today, Teva Pharmaceutical  (NYSE: TEVA  ) gave investors a look at its expectations for revenue and earnings next year.

Two, in fact.

The drugmaker isn't sure if its multiple sclerosis drug Copaxone will see generic competition in the U.S. in June when its exclusivity runs out, so Teva ran the numbers assuming two generic drugs launch and a separate scenario where it doesn't have any competition for the entire year.

Under the rosy scenario Teva expects to bring in $19.8 billion to $20.8 billion in revenue, producing earnings per share between $4.80 and $5.10. Losing exclusivity in the second half of the year is expected to reduce revenue by $500 million and earnings per share by $0.60.

While the patents on Copaxone expire at the end of May, the drug is very complex and hard to make. Two pairs of drugmakers -- Novartis with Momenta Pharmaceuticals and Mylan with Natco Pharma -- have submitted applications to gain approval to sell generic versions, but to date neither pair has gotten tentative approval from the Food and Drug Administration to sell a generic once they're legally allowed to.

Of course, one or more approvals could come anytime in the second half of the year, producing results somewhere in between the two scenarios. According to management, each additional month of exclusivity is worth about $78 million in sales and $0.08 to earnings per share.


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