Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over daily movements, we do like to keep an eye on market changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

The major U.S. indexes are all trading lower as Washington politicians seem to be close to a budget deal, which would avoid another government shutdown and all that mess we went through in October. But leave it to Wall Street and investors to find the downside in this good news, which is that a deal could lead the Federal Reserve to begin tapering its stimulus program.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI)is off by 82 points, or 0.51%, at 1 p.m. EST, awhile the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have respectively lost 0.76% and 0.95%.

But all is not negative in the wild world of stocks. Let's take a look at two big winners today.

Shares of Groupon (NASDAQ:GRPN) are up 2.49% today after rising more than 15% so far this month. Just like on Monday, today's move higher has been caused by another analyst upgrade. Today, analyst Trisha Dill from Wells Fargo changed her rating on Groupon from market perform to outperform and increased the price target from $5-$6 up to $13-$14. Dill said she believes the company's business plans and strategy with mobile are heading in the right direction. Furthermore, Dill feels the company is positioned well to continue to take market share.  

Another big winner is Smith & Wesson (NASDAQ:SWHC) as shares are up 4%. The increase comes after the company reported strong quarterly guidance and quarterly earnings yesterday after the market closed. Management sees the gun maker earning $0.28-$0.30 per share in the third quarter with sales of $140 million-$145 million. Wall Street expected sales of $137.4 million and earnings per share of $0.27. In its second quarter, which was also reported yesterday, the company had sales of $139.3 million and EPS of $0.28, which beat estimates by $0.07. This stock may not be for every investor, but those who don't have an ethical problem owning a gun manufacturer should consider the company.  

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Fool contributor Matt Thalman has no position in any stocks mentioned. Check back Monday through Friday as Matt explains what causing the big market movers of the day, and every Saturday for a weekly recap. Follow Matt on Twitter @mthalman5513

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